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FXUS63 KLMK 260114 AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 914 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Forecast Update

KEY MESSAGES

* A few rain showers are possible on Friday, with light precipitation totals (less than 0.10") generally expected. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon.

* Warm and breezy this weekend, with gusts exceeding 30 mph out of the southwest at times.

* Rain chances return early next week, but above normal temperatures persist.

UPDATE
Issued at 913 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A quiet evening continues across the region, with little more than high clouds to speak of at the moment. Light radar returns are showing up across far W Kentucky currently as the low level jet slowly ramps up in association with a warm front. These returns will slowly work over our SW CWA through the overnight, but given the dry low level in place ( BWG 22 degree T/Td spread at 9 PM EDT) it is going to take a while to saturate the column. Also seeing a very slow uptick in the LLJ over our area in the model data, adding confidence that measurable precipitation will be hard to come by until the 09-15z window. From there, light precipitation chances work NE through the day. Current forecast has this handled, and don't see a need to change anything at this point.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon with mostly sunny skies present across much of the Ohio Valley. Latest visible satellite imagery shows convective debris cirrus streaming across southwestern IN and western KY, with this area of high clouds expected to gradually push eastward later this afternoon as convection continues across the central Plains. Surface high pressure currently located over southern Ontario continues to allow dry northeast low-level flow into central KY and southern IN, and this has also resulted in a fairly noticeable north-south gradient in temperatures this afternoon. As we head toward sunset tonight, expected increasingly filtered sunshine, especially west of I-65, with dry and quiet weather continuing through the evening hours.

Tonight, dry weather is expected to continue across much of the area, with the sfc-850 mb layer remaining fairly dry below increasing mid-level moisture. Would expect skies to be clear enough and winds to remain light enough for another decent radiational cooling setup across portions of southern IN and the KY Bluegrass, though temperatures are generally expected to be warmer tonight compared to last night and this morning. By the pre-dawn hours Friday, a deeper fetch of moisture will start to enter southwestern portions of the CWA as a warm front begins to lift through the region. While initial radar returns will likely evaporate within the dry low-levels, a chance of showers is expected across the Pennyrile by around sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow, increased cloud cover and a few rain showers are expected as the aforementioned warm front lifts across the region. By no means will Friday be a washout, as precipitation chances should remain fairly confined to the zone of deepest moisture and isentropic lifting in the vicinity of the front. Temperatures will generally be warmer on Friday, with temporarily reduced temperatures expected in the vicinity of the front where there should be greater cloud cover. Highs tomorrow should be in the 70s in most locations, although a few 80 degree readings would be most likely across southern and SW Kentucky. Initially, precipitation chances should be forced by broad lifting along the warm front, though increased instability behind the warm front means that an isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon, though severe impacts are not expected.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday Night through Sunday Night...

Warm front lifting northward will take most of its precip solidly north of the Ohio River. Still some uncertainty in the timing and an outside chance that we see isolated convection to the south of the warm front. Therefore will hold on to a 20% chance,

The balance of the weekend will be warm and breezy, with temps more in line with late May or early June. The main summer component that will be missing is humidity, as dewpoints stay in the mid/upper 50s.
and a subsidence layer from 850-700mb will keep a lid on any convection. Tight pressure gradient will yield breezy conditions, with S-SW winds at a solid 15-20 mph with gusts around 30 mph each afternoon.

Weakening cold front starts to advance from the Plains Sunday night, but will only bring a slight chance for showers and storms into areas west of I-65 in the pre-dawn hours of Monday.

Monday through Wednesday...

Early next week, the pattern will deamplify as the deep upper low over the Plains lifts into Canada and the southeastern CONUS ridging starts to break down. This will allow a cold front to drop SE into the Ohio Valley, brining a good chance for showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. Weak lapse rates and weakening shear will work against severe potential, and organized convection in general.
Tue/Wed won't be quite as warm as this weekend, but still above normal for late April. Model consensus still yields rain chances throughout the period, but expect that to come into better focus as we get closer in time. The best chance for a dry day still appears to be Tuesday, and even if it does rain each day it should not be a washout.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 748 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid and upper clouds will increase through tonight as a warm front begins to lift into the region. Some light rain showers are expected to develop near BWG around sunrise tomorrow, however ceilings will stay above the VFR/MVFR threshold. It is less certain whether HNB/SDF will see shower activity by early afternoon, but can't rule it out.
Still, expect VFR throughout. Otherwise, surface winds will veer from light NE this evening, to SE tomorrow morning, to SEE by tomorrow afternoon.

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KY...None.
IN...None.

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