Shepherdsville, KY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shepherdsville, KY

June 14, 2024 8:57 AM EDT (12:57 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 9:08 PM
Moonrise 1:08 PM   Moonset 1:03 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 638 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion


* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible early this morning and again this afternoon.

* Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty showers and storms possible next week as well, though confidence in their development remains low.

Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Early morning satellite imagery reveals partly cloudy skies across the region. Quite a bit of high level cloud debris were noted across the region associated with a line of weakening convection across IN/OH. Convective outflows from previous convection have worked southward and have kicked off some isolated-scattered convection across portions of SE IN and across the northern Bluegrass region of central KY. Temperatures were mild with most sites seeing temps in the low-mid-60s, though the higher ridge tops were in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For the remainder of the overnight, the best chances of convection will be north of the I-64 corridor where aforementioned convective outflows may kick off some additional convection. HRRR and NAM3K solutions show this well and this activity looks to die off between 14/10-12Z. Across the southern half of KY, no precipitation is expected, but some river valley fog will be possible through sunrise.

Moving into the daylight hours, surface cold front will push into southern IN this morning and then into north Kentucky this afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the front will allow some low- level moisture to pool ahead of the front. By mid-late afternoon, some scattered convection may develop along the front. The best instability and dynamics will be displaced from our region, with the greater instability to our west, and better shear/dynamical/synoptic scale support to our east/northeast. Model soundings still show about 1000-1500 J/kg of SB/MLCAPE developing with about 25-30kts of bulk shear. Current thinking is that best convective coverage will be across our east-central CWA, between Louisville and Lexington down into south-central KY. Storms could contain gusty winds, torrential downpours and frequent/intense CG lightning. QPF amounts will be low, but storms could produce very localized 0.25-0.50" amounts. Highs on the day will be similar to Thursday with readings in the 85-90 degree range.

Surface front is expected to push southward during the evening and convection will diminish rapidly with the setting sun. Cool advection will build across the region with overnight lows dipping into the lower 60s across southern IN and north-central/east-central KY. Across southern KY, lows will be in the mid-upper 60s.

Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

By the start of the weekend, upper ridging will be over the Lower Ohio and Mississippi Valleys as upper high pressure sets up over the Southeast. Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes, will keep northeast winds over southern Indiana and central Kentucky, so even with all the sunshine, cold air advection will keep highs limited to the "cool" mid 80s to near 90 farther south, near Bowling Green.

By Sunday, upper flow around the ridge will push the aforementioned surface high farther to the east. This will bring return flow back to the CWA, and warm air advection with sunny skies will lift high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s (for most places) for the rest of the week. Most nights this week, lows will only fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Most of the models try to produce some isolated to scattered precipitation in the area sometime between Monday and Tuesday as low level flow funnels moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. This could be possible, but a lot of times when you have this pattern with high pressure parked over the Southeast, the high persists for longer than models convey. Things tend to run drier for longer with models pushing off precipitation chances as each day passes.

Issued at 638 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface cold front is forecast to push southward across southern IN this morning and then into northern KY this afternoon. Could see a few showers/storms fire along the front this afternoon. Overall coverage looks to be limited and will keep the TAFs dry for now.
Once the front passes through the terminals, winds will shift from the SW to the NW. By mid-evening or so, winds will shift to the north and then northeast. Looking ahead, VFR conditions are expected overnight and on Saturday.


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