Ironton, OH Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ironton, OH

June 19, 2024 1:20 AM EDT (05:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:59 PM
Moonrise 6:05 PM   Moonset 2:49 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ironton, OH
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Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 190318 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1118 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged heat wave continues throughout the week courtesy of a broad upper level ridge.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1105 PM Tuesday...

Made minor updates to overnight temperatures, but otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with just a few isolated showers/storms left across northern portions of the CWA

As of 525 PM Tuesday...

Made minor tweaks to temperatures and PoPs throughout the evening to represent the latest trends. Overall, the general theme continues to be isolated showers/storms into early tonight, a few of which could be on the strong side with gusty winds. Convection that initiated via anabatic forced ascent earlier today has/is gradually drifting northwest via weak mean layer low-level flow from the southeast. Expect this general trend to continue throughout the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 1239 PM Tuesday...

Surface high pressure and upper ridging will continue to expand across the area through Wednesday, creating very hot conditions across the region, and a continuation of a heat advisory for all counties west of the mountains. Showers and storms will fire again during peak heating hours today. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with a wind/downburst threat. Similar to yesterday, high instability/cape, along with weak shear, high PW values, with storms slow to move and containing heavy downpours, along with that strong wind/downburst potential. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe across most of the CWA west of the mountains.

Otherwise, as the high continues to expand westward, flow will gradually continue to become more southeasterly, with somewhat less humid air taking hold for Wednesday. Not really expecting apparent temperatures to reach advisory criteria on Wednesday, but with temperatures still expected to reach into the mid 90s, the heat headlines will remain. In addition, with more stable conditions expected to be in place on Wednesday, a dry forecast was maintained for now, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out either.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Upper ridge pattern courtesy of a rather strong area of high pressure to our east extending from Bermuda/Eastern Atlantic. As a result, hot and dry temperatures amid the heat wave will continue into the short term period.

Temperatures Thursday look to be in the low to mid 90s for much of the area, with upper 70s to upper 80s being common across the mountains. Humidity looks to back off some in the afternoon allowing for less hot heat indices in comparison to what has been observed. While heat indices look to be below 100 degrees, they will still be high with mid to upper 90s expected for the warmest locations in our forecast area. Lows both Wednesday night and Thursday night, will range from the 60s to upper 70s depending on elevation. This provides some relief, but with muggy conditions expected each night it will not feel as though there is improvement.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1215 PM Tuesday...

Strong Bermuda High Pressure system will still influence temperatures into the weekend, keeping them well above normal.
The hottest temperatures will be observed Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands each day; 80s in the mountains. A few locations in the low-lying river valleys, along the Ohio River and across portions of SE Ohio are forecasted to reach 100. Heat indices will still be oppressive, even with humidity values lessening some as the week goes on.

The ridge pattern looks to recede Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. That said, PoPs also increase from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as this front approaches and a trough drops out of the north Sunday into Monday. Showers and some thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday due to this feature, but kept only chance PoPs for now until confidence increases.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 825 PM Tuesday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms through ~04Z (primarily across northern locations), with brief IFR/MVFR VSBY restrictions in heavier downpours, along with gusty winds.
Mainly dry conditions are expected thereafter, with some patchy fog development later tonight in areas that received rainfall this evening, along with the typically favored deeper mountain river valleys. MVFR/IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions are possible, primarily at CKB/EKN. Expect a return of widespread VFR after 12Z Wednesday.

Calm or light S/SSE surface flow is expected overnight.
Expect variable or light southeast surface flow on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions could occur early tonight with ISOL showers or thunderstorms.
Fog tonight may be more widespread than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 06/19/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

CLIMATE
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the area through this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach record highs at some locations on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Sunday, June 23 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday, 6/18 | Wednesday, 6/19| Thursday, 6/20 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 93 / 98 (1944) | 92 / 98 (1919) | 94 / 99 (1931) | HTS | 93 / 98 (1944) | 93 / 98 (1994) | 93 /100 (1931) | CKB | 93 / 96 (1936) | 93 / 94 (1994) | 93 / 94 (1931) | PKB | 94 / 98 (1944) | 94 / 95 (1994) | 95 / 97 (1931) | BKW | 86 / 93 (1936) | 86 / 90 (1944) | 87 / 92 (1931) | EKN | 91 / 91 (1994) | 90 / 89 (1905) | 90 / 92 (1931) | -------------------------------------------------------- Friday, 6/21 | Saturday, 6/22 | Sunday, 6/23 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW | 97 /105 (1931) | 97 / 98 (1988) | 96 /100 (1929) | HTS | 99 / 99 (1953) | 99 / 98 (1988) | 97 /100 (1930) | CKB | 96 / 98 (1953) | 96 / 97 (1923) | 94 / 96 (1957) | PKB | 98 / 97 (1953) | 98 / 98 (1988) | 95 / 94 (1964) | BKW | 91 / 93 (1953) | 91 / 92 (1931) | 90 / 91 (1931) | EKN | 93 / 92 (1953) | 94 / 93 (1923) | 91 / 89 (1899) | --------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, the all-time June high temperature records may be neared in some locations. Listed below are the maximum temperatures currently forecast during the heat wave versus the all-time June high temperature records.

Max Forecast All-time June Record ----------------------------------------- CRW | 97 | 105 (1931) | HTS | 99 | 105 (1930) | CKB | 96 | 100 (1925) | PKB | 98 | 100 (1988) | BKW | 91 | 100 (1936) | EKN | 94 | 96 (2012) | -----------------------------------------

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>032-039-040.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076- 083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.




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