Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ironton, OH
December 11, 2023 2:33 AM EST (07:33 UTC)
Sunrise 7:36AM Sunset 5:11PM Moonrise 6:20AM Moonset 3:55PM
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 110707 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Upslope flow overnight into Monday gives way to high pressure Monday night. A dry cold front crosses Tuesday night, followed by high pressure for the balance of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 115 AM Monday...
Freshened up the wording of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory, but the zeitgeist of the forecast remains on track, as upslope snow showers appeared to be picking up again after a bit of a lull.
As of 905 PM Sunday...
Elected to update POPs again as current observations and trends are indicating a quicker exit of precipitation along parts of the lowlands and even the southeastern WV mountains. Mainly just looking at snow in the northeast mountain sector of the CWA now along with its valleys. The rest of the forecast is on track.
As of 615 PM Sunday...
Tweaked POPs a bit using a blend of the latest and greatest model guidance. I pushed POPs out of the area slightly faster than the previous forecast simply using the new guidance and current situational awareness. Noticed that much of the lowlands has stopped precipitating and there is nothing forming around the vicinity to implicate that anymore will occur.
I did lower probabilities as well going into the overnight along the higher terrain around the mountains but kept the northeast mountains the same as we still have that chance of upslope snow through the morning.
Just recently the rain has changed over to snow down near Beckely's area and south, along the higher terrain. Elsewhere, in the lower elevations, temperatures are still a little too high but in the higher elevations and northeast mountains it is safe to say that snow is occurring as their temperatures are cold enough.
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 207 AM Monday...
High pressure retains residency over the Central Appalachians through the bulk of the forecast period. A cold front quietly sails through the area early Wednesday morning due to lack of upper level support or moisture accompanying the boundary. Main impacts from this frontal passage will be cooler high temperatures Wednesday afternoon and morning lows bottoming out into the teens/low 20s Thursday morning. A slight uptick in mountain wind gusts may be observed Wednesday morning in the midst of FROPA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 207 AM Monday...
Renewed high pressure nestles in behind the moisture starved cold front for the end of the work week. As it currently stands, this feature will shield the forecast area from a southern stream system developing in the Mississippi Valley for the weekend. This portion of the forecast remains uncertain as model solutions have been on the fence of what's to come for the past several runs. Retaining central guidance for now, which paints a similar picture to the 00Z GFS, bringing a disturbance up the eastern seaboard late in the weekend, with outer bands of rain sailing up the southern coalfields into the mountains as the center of the low pressure system travels up the I-95 corridor into New England.
Afternoon highs return to the 40s/50s by Friday into the weekend. Morning lows in the long term period remain cold in response to optimal radiational cooling under mostly clear skies, but as clouds return for the weekend in conjunction with the aforementioned disturbance, weekend morning lows will run a few degrees warmer in the 20s/30s.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 115 AM Monday...
Upslope flow and wrap around moisture behind a large exiting low pressure system maintains an MVFR stratocumulus deck much of the time overnight into Monday, with improvement across much of the lowlands from southwest to northeast late Monday afternoon, as the deck lifts and scattered out. Sites in and near the mountains are not expected to scatter out until Monday night, with IFR ceilings much of the time at BKW through Monday morning, and even at EKN at times later Monday morning.
Visibility could drop to MVFR in snow showers at times overnight into Monday morning at least at EKN and BKW.
West to northwest winds could gust to 15 to 20 kts at times overnight into Monday afternoon, before diminishing and backing to the southwest Monday night. Gusts are less likely at HTS and CRW. Light to moderate northwest flow aloft overnight through Monday will become light southwest Monday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR ceilings may not be as persistent at BKW as forecast. Timing of IFR ceilings at EKN may also vary, and there could be rogue instances of IFR ceilings elsewhere not forecast through Monday morning. A snow shower could also bring IFR visibility in and near the mountains, CKB, EKN and BKW, overnight into Monday morning. Timing of improvement on ceilings Monday into Monday night may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/11/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522- 523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 207 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
Upslope flow overnight into Monday gives way to high pressure Monday night. A dry cold front crosses Tuesday night, followed by high pressure for the balance of the work week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 115 AM Monday...
Freshened up the wording of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory, but the zeitgeist of the forecast remains on track, as upslope snow showers appeared to be picking up again after a bit of a lull.
As of 905 PM Sunday...
Elected to update POPs again as current observations and trends are indicating a quicker exit of precipitation along parts of the lowlands and even the southeastern WV mountains. Mainly just looking at snow in the northeast mountain sector of the CWA now along with its valleys. The rest of the forecast is on track.
As of 615 PM Sunday...
Tweaked POPs a bit using a blend of the latest and greatest model guidance. I pushed POPs out of the area slightly faster than the previous forecast simply using the new guidance and current situational awareness. Noticed that much of the lowlands has stopped precipitating and there is nothing forming around the vicinity to implicate that anymore will occur.
I did lower probabilities as well going into the overnight along the higher terrain around the mountains but kept the northeast mountains the same as we still have that chance of upslope snow through the morning.
Just recently the rain has changed over to snow down near Beckely's area and south, along the higher terrain. Elsewhere, in the lower elevations, temperatures are still a little too high but in the higher elevations and northeast mountains it is safe to say that snow is occurring as their temperatures are cold enough.
As of 230 PM Sunday...
Light to moderate rain continues primarily to the east of the Ohio River as a wave lifts up along a frontal boundary to the east.
Additional moisture is expected to feed into the area as a shortwave trough shifts east overhead late today through tonight. Precipitation chances will erode from the lowlands overnight, with drier conditions expected for Monday as high pressure begins to build in from the southwest. Meanwhile, moisture and upslope flow should allow precipitation to linger into Monday afternoon along the mountains.
Rain will transition to snow as temperatures turn colder this evening into tonight. Once this transition occurs, snow remains the dominant precipitation type until precipitation comes to an end on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected along the mountains, with 4-7 inches possible for the higher elevations (>3000 ft.). Accumulations trail off further to the west, though flurries or a light dusting could spill over into the lowlands.
Reduced visibility is likely within snow showers. Snow could also initially melt and then freeze, potentially creating slick spots on roadways. No significant changes have been made to the already issued Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory. Both products remain in effect from 7PM today into Monday afternoon.
A tightening pressure gradient is expected to develop as the shortwave approaches from the west. This, and a strong jet moving overhead, should support gusty winds overnight into early Monday. Gusts up to 40 mph are possible for the higher ridges.
Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 20s to low 30s across the area overnight. Monday remains chilly, with highs projected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s in the lowlands, and 20s to mid 30s along the mountains.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 207 AM Monday...
High pressure retains residency over the Central Appalachians through the bulk of the forecast period. A cold front quietly sails through the area early Wednesday morning due to lack of upper level support or moisture accompanying the boundary. Main impacts from this frontal passage will be cooler high temperatures Wednesday afternoon and morning lows bottoming out into the teens/low 20s Thursday morning. A slight uptick in mountain wind gusts may be observed Wednesday morning in the midst of FROPA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 207 AM Monday...
Renewed high pressure nestles in behind the moisture starved cold front for the end of the work week. As it currently stands, this feature will shield the forecast area from a southern stream system developing in the Mississippi Valley for the weekend. This portion of the forecast remains uncertain as model solutions have been on the fence of what's to come for the past several runs. Retaining central guidance for now, which paints a similar picture to the 00Z GFS, bringing a disturbance up the eastern seaboard late in the weekend, with outer bands of rain sailing up the southern coalfields into the mountains as the center of the low pressure system travels up the I-95 corridor into New England.
Afternoon highs return to the 40s/50s by Friday into the weekend. Morning lows in the long term period remain cold in response to optimal radiational cooling under mostly clear skies, but as clouds return for the weekend in conjunction with the aforementioned disturbance, weekend morning lows will run a few degrees warmer in the 20s/30s.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 115 AM Monday...
Upslope flow and wrap around moisture behind a large exiting low pressure system maintains an MVFR stratocumulus deck much of the time overnight into Monday, with improvement across much of the lowlands from southwest to northeast late Monday afternoon, as the deck lifts and scattered out. Sites in and near the mountains are not expected to scatter out until Monday night, with IFR ceilings much of the time at BKW through Monday morning, and even at EKN at times later Monday morning.
Visibility could drop to MVFR in snow showers at times overnight into Monday morning at least at EKN and BKW.
West to northwest winds could gust to 15 to 20 kts at times overnight into Monday afternoon, before diminishing and backing to the southwest Monday night. Gusts are less likely at HTS and CRW. Light to moderate northwest flow aloft overnight through Monday will become light southwest Monday night.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR ceilings may not be as persistent at BKW as forecast. Timing of IFR ceilings at EKN may also vary, and there could be rogue instances of IFR ceilings elsewhere not forecast through Monday morning. A snow shower could also bring IFR visibility in and near the mountains, CKB, EKN and BKW, overnight into Monday morning. Timing of improvement on ceilings Monday into Monday night may vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 12/11/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M M H M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ039-040-516-518>521-525.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ522- 523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDWU ASHLAND RGNL,KY | 4 sm | 17 min | NW 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | Unknown | 36°F | 30°F | 81% | 30.05 |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 15 sm | 42 min | WNW 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 30.01 | |
| KPMH GREATER PORTSMOUTH RGNL,OH | 21 sm | 18 min | WNW 03 | 7 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 30°F | 81% | 30.05 |
Wind History from HTS
(wind in knots)
Charleston, WV,
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