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FXUS61 KRLX 041918 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 218 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances bring rounds of precipitation, including measurable snow for the northern mountains of West Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 100 PM Monday...

A system moving across southern portions of the forecast area should exit the region early this evening. A clipper will then move in on Tuesday. Depending on how early the precipitation arrives and how cool temperatures get tonight, precipitation across southeast Ohio and the northern West Virginia lowlands could begin as snow before changing to rain. Higher elevations of the mountains are expected to be all snow, with a half of an inch accumulation possible Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 218 PM Monday...

-Winter Weather Advisory for highest elevations late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for 3 to 6 inches of snow.

-Rain mixing with snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in the lower elevations. Little if any accumulations expected.

Precipitation will continue to overspread the region Tuesday evening as the clipper system swings through the area. As mentioned above, snow will likely be the predominant p-type in the mountains. Snow is expected to continue through much of the day Wednesday here with 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds will also pick up on Wednesday with falling temperatures pushing wind chills into the teens and single digits. Confidence is high enough in snow accumulations and travel impacts to go ahead and issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the higher terrain of Webster, Randolph and Pocahontas. A couple of inches of snow is also likely as far down in elevation as Elkins.

For the lower elevations, warm boundary layer should keep most precipitation as rain Tuesday evening, although snow will gradually mix in late in the night into Wednesday morning. Will need to watch the Wednesday AM commute as some wet snow showers will likely be occurring but surface temperatures are forecast to be at or slightly above freezing and this should limit impacts in the lower elevations.

Decreasing clouds are expected Wednesday night with snow showers winding down Wednesday evening in the mountains.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 218 PM Monday...

-Quiet Thursday and Friday with a warming trend.

-Next system arrives for the weekend with rain along with the potential for gusty winds and some snow showers on the back end.

Quiet weather returns for Thursday and Friday with a transient shortwave ridge moving across the region keeping any impactful systems to our north. Temperatures will be on the upswing, warming from the 40s and low 50s on Thursday well into the 50s on Friday.

A shortwave trough digs into the central Plains states Friday into Saturday bringing southwest flow and a continued warmup with highs likely eclipsing 60 for most lower elevation locations. The mild temperatures will be accompanied by increasing rain chances as a cold front swings toward the region. As is normal at these time ranges, there’s some spread in the modeling with regards to timing and intensity of this next system, so stuck close to the NBM with PoPs peaking on Sunday. Gusty winds could be another impact of this system along with a potential for some wrap around snow showers Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1200 PM Monday...

A system will provide some rain showers across northeastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and southwestern Virginia this afternoon. These showers could produce some brief MVFR conditions.

Some clouds could bank against the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains tonight, providing some MVFR clouds. Further west, expect VFR conditions.

Another system will provide for lowering clouds on Tuesday, with some precipitation also moving into the area from the west.
If the precipitation arrives early enough, some of the northern locations such as PKB and CKB could have brief period of snow before changing to rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR cloud deck overnight could be more extensive than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the mountains Tuesday night through Wednesday.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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