Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM Moonrise 1:35 AM   Moonset 1:22 PM

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FXUS61 KRLX 010059 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 859 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the new work week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 840 PM Friday...

A quiet evening across the region courtesy of surface high pressure that is currently centered near Clarksburg, with just a bit of SCT cirrus across the southern/western portion of the CWA
Another quiet, but cool night is in store across the region, amid a bit of developing river valley (steam) fog, albeit less widespread than last night given another day of drying. A rather dry lower atmosphere will once again result in a rather quick drop in temperatures following sunset, with overnight temperatures trended a bit cooler with the evening update, albeit still warmer than last night. This translates into low temperatures in the 40s across the lowlands, with perhaps isolated upper 30s in the typical valley cold spots across SE OH into N WV. The high-elevation valleys in the northern mountains will once again be the cold spot courtesy of katabatic flow, with mid to upper 30s progged in the coldest locations. Patchy frost is possible in isolated locations across Pocahontas/Randolph counties. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Friday...

Quiet weather continues as surface high pressure slowly shifts east through Saturday afternoon. Dew points in the mountains will be a few degrees higher than last night, so any high mountain valley frost should be very patchy at best in cold air drainage.

Saturday will be hotter and more humid than today as southerly flow starts to increase, but any precipitation should largely hold off until Saturday night while the upper level ridge remains overhead.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1214 PM Friday...

A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the 70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50- 0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the upper 70s expected in the mountains.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1214 PM Friday...

With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather will return across the state for the rest of the week with summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3 of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances should begin to decrease.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 800 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of this TAF period. The one aviation concern will be with valley fog late tonight (primarily river valleys), but in general, most fog is not expected to impact our terminals. However, brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions at CRW/EKN/PKB near dawn on Saturday cannot entirely be ruled out. Any fog that does develop overnight lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z Saturday. Saturday will feature increasing mid/high level clouds from the southwest as the day progresses.

Calm conditions are expected across much of the area tonight.
Light SSW to SSE surface flow develops on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy valley fog could cause brief VSBY restrictions at CRW/EKN/PKB near dawn on Saturday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 06/01/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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