Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topaz, CA

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 2:24 PM PDT (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 6:09AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topaz, CA
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location: 38.67, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 191047 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 347 AM PDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS.

Rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds return late Tuesday into Wednesday as the active weather pattern continues. More impactful storms are forecast to move through the region Friday through the weekend with potential for strong winds, rain, and heavy mountain snow.

SHORT TERM.

The next storm system will push a cold front through the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of this system paired with the cold core of the low across the PacNW will result in snow levels near and above 5500 ft. Plan on a period of gusty winds along with rain and high elevation snow showers. The storm quickly exits the region on Wednesday, but significant moisture along with westerly flow will maintain light upslope showers for the western slopes and the Dixie Fire burn area possibly into midday Thursday.

Winds . South-southwest winds will increase late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially for areas north of Highway 50. South- southwest winds will elevate wind gusts into the 30-45 mph range for the Sierra valleys and across western NV. Sierra ridge gusts may be 80+ mph. Expect some restrictions to travel for high profile vehicles, choppy lake conditions, and some aviation turbulence in and out of the region late tonight into early Wednesday.

Sierra Snow . Although this system isn't quite as cold as the one from Monday, it will likely provide another round of meaningful snow to the Sierra. Plan on another period of travel impacts in the Sierra. The snow potential is targeted for areas north of Ebbetts Pass (CA-4) with only a few showers possible for the Mono County crest at this time. Simulations favor 2-3 inches over the Sierra passes with a dusting to an inch or two for elevations down to 5500 feet or so. In the wetter scenarios, 3-6 inches of snow are possible above 6000 feet. Be prepared for Sierra travel delays Wednesday AM.

Rain/snow potential across western NV . Southerly flow ahead of this system may limit spillover into western NV. We could see a short period of rain early Wednesday morning with coupled upper jet/surface front dynamics, probably just before or during the morning commute. Precipitation totals will be light and less than 0.10 inch. Any potential for very light snow will be limited to areas above 5500-6000 feet in the Virginia Highlands and foothills along/west of US-395.

Thursday is the 'scheduled break' between systems, but onshore moisture will still be pushing across the Sierra resulting in lingering chances for rain and high elevation snow showers particularly for areas west of Highway 395 and north of Highway 50.

-Edan

LONG TERM. Friday through next Tuesday .

Two potential Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) this coming weekend into early next week:

Storm 1 - Friday into Saturday:

* Winds look to increase Friday ahead of an incoming shortwave trough and associated weak AR. ECMWF-ENS members are showing much of the quasi-geostrophic ascent and cold air advection staying north into Oregon, while the GEFS is showing colder air and synoptic lift entering the Sierra. Snow amounts will differ depending on which solution becomes reality. Most of the snowfall should be focused along the higher elevations of northeast California. If the GEFS solution does come true (which is a lower probability), light snow could fall near Donner and Echo Summit (~7000 feet) Friday evening.

Storm 2 - Saturday night into early Tuesday:

* Confidence increasing in a significant AR impacting the West Coast, allowing for weak rain shadow to occur (strong spillover) into far western Nevada. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are showing a strong signal lining up with idealistic conceptual models of strong spillover AR events based upon climatology. If model solutions do come to fruition, we could see some strong winds, heavy high elevation Sierra cement, and moderate-heavy rainfall downwind of the Sierra. Some key meteorological elements that are lining up include:(1) Existence of a strong mid-level AR delivering moisture to leeside basins of the Sierra Nevada; (2) Strong instability owing to weak- moderate MUCAPE values of 300-500 J/kg and strong cold air advection along the west (windward) side of the Sierra Nevada; (3) High-momentum flow with a strong 300-500 hPa jet overhead and quasi-geostrophic ascent over the northern Sierra Nevada.

* Disclaimer: We are still 5 days out. In the past, we have seen great model agreement days out only to change dramatically as the event time nears. Therefore, we could see dramatically altering storm impacts if the storm track alters its course. This is further reinforced by the large spread in dry versus wet scenarios in the ensemble guidance. The weather pattern looks to remain active into week two with AR possibilities mainly north of 40 degrees north latitude.

-Johnston

AVIATION.

Clear skies and low-level moisture has allowed fog to develop at KTRK early this morning. Fog should thin out and clear between 16- 18z this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions and light winds for Sierra and western NV terminals this morning.

The next in a series of storms will migrate into the region late tonight through Wednesday with mountain wave turbulence increasing by this afternoon. Winds with this system should peak tonight and early Wednesday AM as the cold front pushes across the Sierra. There may be a period of enhanced south winds at KRNO around 12z Wednesday, a known direction to increase LLWS potential. Rain, snow, MVFR conditions, and mountain obscurations will also push through the northern Sierra with snow/freezing levels near 5500-6000 ft msl. Some light rain may cross into western NV Wednesday AM. -Edan

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . None. CA . None.

For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA30 mi32 minVar 610.00 miFair53°F24°F32%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVL

Wind History from TVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr00E600S4S3S5SW40S500SW3S3S4S30S3S30056
1 day agoS12
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2 days agoNE4NE60S7S503000S4S4S3000003S15
G36
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G34
S13
G28

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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