Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Topaz, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:39PM Thursday December 5, 2019 2:07 PM PST (22:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topaz, CA
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location: 38.67, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 051754 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 954 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE. Fog is the primary concern for today through Friday morning. Many locations in western Nevada are dealing less than one mile visibility that will impact travel in the region. Fog and the low clouds will likely stick around through the day, although there may be a short period of improved visibility later this afternoon. We have extended the Dense Fog Advisory through 10AM Friday for the Reno-Carson City-Minden areas. -Edan

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. /Issued 236 AM PST Thu Dec 5 2019/

SYNOPSIS .

A brief break in the weather will be in place today with light winds and stratus decks continuing. Another winter storm is expected to arrive by early Friday evening with more mountain snow, valley rain, and gusty winds expected through Sunday.

SHORT TERM .

Latest satellite imagery continues to show low stratus decks within Sierra and western Nevada valleys this morning. This is helping to moderate low temperatures, but nonetheless temperatures are within a few degrees of freezing. Use caution this morning as areas of patchy fog along with slick and icy roads are possible in spots.

A brief break in the weather will be in store today ahead of the next winter storm expected to arrive late Friday. As for today, light winds and inversions will result in poor ventilation and another day of stratus decks. Probably won't be able to scour the valleys of the low clouds until the winds pick up ahead of the incoming storm on Friday.

The main adjustments to the forecast for the incoming storm were to trend arrival time a little slower and to increase snow levels a bit through Saturday night.

Overall, looking at another winter storm on the warmer side to provide more heavy, wet snow to the high Sierra Friday evening through much of the weekend. Looking like it will be will mostly be a rain event for elevations below about 6,000-6,500' at least through Saturday night, while all snow above about 7,000-7,500' with 1-3 feet possible. Looking less likely to get significant snow accumulations around the lake due to the warm nature of this moderate atmospheric river moisture tap. Overall, a few inches of slushy accumulations are most probable here including into western Nevada foothills.

If you are looking at traveling across the Sierra passes, it would probably be best to finish your travel by Friday afternoon as the rain/snow should arrive by early evening and should continue through Sunday. Strong and gusty winds will also accompany the storm with ridge top winds increasing Friday evening with gusty conditions expected mainly through the Tahoe Basin through Saturday.

There will be 2 main waves of moisture that move through. First, will push through Friday night into mid-morning Saturday with a secondary and perhaps more intense wave early Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This wave will have stronger dynamic forcing (jet support and low-level frontal forcing) and increased instability which may result in heavier snow/rain rates along with lowering snow levels. Water equivalent amounts of 0.5 to 1" are possible for the far western Nevada cities with best spillover potential Saturday late afternoon into the night. Fuentes

LONG TERM . Sunday through Wednesday .

The weekend system should be winding down through the day Sunday. Model solutions have the main upper trough dropping south through the forecast area by late Sunday evening or overnight. That means we will still see showers through the day with additional accumulations in the higher elevations. By Sunday morning deeper cold air should drive the snow levels down further . reaching all but the lowest valleys floors by late morning However. it is not as likely we will see much accumulation in the valleys as moisture is decreasing through the day.

Shortwave ridging starts building Monday then drifts east Tuesday. With this feature we should begin to see warming aloft and the development of valley inversion. That will get us back into a situation where ventilation and mixing are poor for any burning planned for that time.

Model solutions are struggling with another system for the Wednesday time frame. This one is more likely to be a fast-moving wave that produces little in the way of precipitation but does allow for a bit of mixing. The ECMWF has been more enthusiastic with regard to the production of precipitation with this wave . mainly over the northern half of the forecast areas. This is due to its holding the wave together as one entity and being able to focus forcing. On the other hand . the GFS and some ensemble members are trying to develop a split flow type solution with a closed low developing to our south while the northern part of the system shears off across Oregon. That would tend to support less chance of precipitation for our area. We inherited some POPs during the Wednesday time frame. We have kept some mention of precipitation . but let it stay more along the Oregon border region to account for differences in the model solutions.

AVIATION .

Another challenging aviation forecast is in the offing today. At hand is the question of how extensive any fog/freezing fog or low ceilings will be this morning and when clearing takes place.

With the upper low well to our east now we are stuck with ample residual low level moisture in an increasingly stable atmosphere. That has prompted the redevelopment of fog in areas that saw some brief clearing . but also low ceilings in areas where clouds from earlier never completely lifted So. we should see a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions with low ceilings/vsbys for most of the terminals early this morning.

All of this should begin to break later this morning with conditions improving to VFR for most areas in the afternoon However. there could still be a few pockets of lower ceilings in some isolated valleys into the early afternoon hours as mixing will be limited. Late tonight another round of fog/freeing fog is possible in the colder valleys that area typically susceptible to fog in the winter.

Mixing increases ahead of another system Friday. This should lift all ceilings for a time . but then the system begins to impact northeast California and the northern Sierra late Friday afternoon into Friday night and the entire forecast area by Saturday morning. The system brings valley rain and mountain snow along with increased winds and turbulence aloft through Sunday.



REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning NVZ002.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday NVZ003.

CA . Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning CAZ071>073.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA30 mi14 minNNE 410.00 miFair44°F33°F65%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTVL

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3SW43S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW8CalmNE3CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmS3S3S4S5CalmCalmS4CalmCalm3N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.