Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topaz, CA
December 7, 2023 6:03 PM PST (02:03 UTC)
Sunrise 7:03AM Sunset 4:39PM Moonrise 2:35AM Moonset 2:30PM
FXUS65 KREV 072223 AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 223 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
One more push of snow arrives this afternoon and evening, with renewed travel impacts and lower snow levels. Be sure to check road conditions and be prepared for winter travel, especially in the Sierra and northeast California. Cold and dry conditions will follow for the weekend and into the start of next week.
DISCUSSION
* One more push of moisture is moving into the region this afternoon and evening, already evidenced into the northern Sierra and northeast CA on radar. Per the latest ensemble based blended guidance, the heaviest rates will linger through roughly sundown this evening. While a few light showers are possible into Alpine and northern Mono Co, overall there will be very low chances (15% or less) in these areas, with less than a 5% chance or any snow south of there. Per HRRR guidance, snow rates may briefly exceed 1"/hour into the western Sierra slopes from approximately now through 6 pm. While this is not reaching the rates experienced yesterday, it's still enough to cause major travel headaches.
* Into western Nevada, the main precipitation band begins to fall apart, so coverage will be much spottier. The question at this point is the rain/snow lines. Blended guidance is indicating 4500- 5000 feet, with the 10th percentile near or just below 4000 feet. With the convective nature of the snow bands, I would not be at all surprised to see these lower snow levels occur.
The band is coming through between 3 and 6 pm, just in time for the evening commute. While impacts will not be widespread, plan for localized slick road conditions,especially above 5000 feet elevation.
* A few additional snow showers may linger into the evening hours, clearing overnight. Following, this system, it will be seasonably cold tomorrow, with high temperatures 4 to 8 degrees below normal. We'll gradually warm to near normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week with the warmest day on Sunday.
* While it looks fairly dry for the weekend and into the start of next week, there is still quite a bit of ensemble spread for late week into the following weekend. Roughly 40% of ensemble members bring additional wet weather to the region, albeit no strong storms, while 60% are dry. Bottom line is that we aren't in a blocking ridge pattern, but signals are just not there for any major winter storms either. -Dawn
AVIATION
* One final push of rain and snow this afternoon and evening for KTRK and KTVL, with a trace up to 2" of snow accumulation possible through 04z this evening. While skies will partially clear overnight, there is an 80% chance for fog to form at KTRK after 08z through 17z Friday morning. There is a 40% chance for lower patchy stratus around KTVL, which may obstruct terrain.
* For KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, showers will be much spottier in nature with a 40% chance for one to pass directly over the airfields. A mix of light rain or snow is possible from approximately 00z-03z. Further south, KMMH will be in the clear.
* Otherwise, the only other concern is the continued strong westerly flow aloft with mountain wave turbulence and wind shear present.
Winds will weaken and turn northwesterly overnight.
* Lighter winds and dry conditions will be in place for the remainder of the weekend, though some light haze will be present with some minor slantwise visibility reduction. -Dawn
AVALANCHE
Another front is moving through the region this afternoon and evening, but snowfall rates will not be quite as intense as we saw yesterday. Snow levels to hover near 5000 feet, but could drop lower in more intense, convective, snow bands.
* Snow Water Equivalent (SWE): 30% chance for SWE to exceed 1" over the next 24 hrs on the Sierra crest from US-50 northward.
* Snowfall Rates: 40-60% chance to exceed 1" per hour along the crest north of I-80 between 12 PM-4 PM Thursday.
* Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Lighter snow characteristics today, between 14-16 to 1.
* Winds: Gusty west-southwest winds continue today, generally up to 70-80 mph along Sierra ridges this afternoon. Lighter winds below ridge level, between 30-50 mph. Winds will gradually weaken tonight and turn northwesterly. -Dawn
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening CAZ071-072.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 223 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023
SYNOPSIS
One more push of snow arrives this afternoon and evening, with renewed travel impacts and lower snow levels. Be sure to check road conditions and be prepared for winter travel, especially in the Sierra and northeast California. Cold and dry conditions will follow for the weekend and into the start of next week.
DISCUSSION
* One more push of moisture is moving into the region this afternoon and evening, already evidenced into the northern Sierra and northeast CA on radar. Per the latest ensemble based blended guidance, the heaviest rates will linger through roughly sundown this evening. While a few light showers are possible into Alpine and northern Mono Co, overall there will be very low chances (15% or less) in these areas, with less than a 5% chance or any snow south of there. Per HRRR guidance, snow rates may briefly exceed 1"/hour into the western Sierra slopes from approximately now through 6 pm. While this is not reaching the rates experienced yesterday, it's still enough to cause major travel headaches.
* Into western Nevada, the main precipitation band begins to fall apart, so coverage will be much spottier. The question at this point is the rain/snow lines. Blended guidance is indicating 4500- 5000 feet, with the 10th percentile near or just below 4000 feet. With the convective nature of the snow bands, I would not be at all surprised to see these lower snow levels occur.
The band is coming through between 3 and 6 pm, just in time for the evening commute. While impacts will not be widespread, plan for localized slick road conditions,especially above 5000 feet elevation.
* A few additional snow showers may linger into the evening hours, clearing overnight. Following, this system, it will be seasonably cold tomorrow, with high temperatures 4 to 8 degrees below normal. We'll gradually warm to near normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week with the warmest day on Sunday.
* While it looks fairly dry for the weekend and into the start of next week, there is still quite a bit of ensemble spread for late week into the following weekend. Roughly 40% of ensemble members bring additional wet weather to the region, albeit no strong storms, while 60% are dry. Bottom line is that we aren't in a blocking ridge pattern, but signals are just not there for any major winter storms either. -Dawn
AVIATION
* One final push of rain and snow this afternoon and evening for KTRK and KTVL, with a trace up to 2" of snow accumulation possible through 04z this evening. While skies will partially clear overnight, there is an 80% chance for fog to form at KTRK after 08z through 17z Friday morning. There is a 40% chance for lower patchy stratus around KTVL, which may obstruct terrain.
* For KRNO/KCXP/KMEV, showers will be much spottier in nature with a 40% chance for one to pass directly over the airfields. A mix of light rain or snow is possible from approximately 00z-03z. Further south, KMMH will be in the clear.
* Otherwise, the only other concern is the continued strong westerly flow aloft with mountain wave turbulence and wind shear present.
Winds will weaken and turn northwesterly overnight.
* Lighter winds and dry conditions will be in place for the remainder of the weekend, though some light haze will be present with some minor slantwise visibility reduction. -Dawn
AVALANCHE
Another front is moving through the region this afternoon and evening, but snowfall rates will not be quite as intense as we saw yesterday. Snow levels to hover near 5000 feet, but could drop lower in more intense, convective, snow bands.
* Snow Water Equivalent (SWE): 30% chance for SWE to exceed 1" over the next 24 hrs on the Sierra crest from US-50 northward.
* Snowfall Rates: 40-60% chance to exceed 1" per hour along the crest north of I-80 between 12 PM-4 PM Thursday.
* Snow-to-Liquid Ratios: Lighter snow characteristics today, between 14-16 to 1.
* Winds: Gusty west-southwest winds continue today, generally up to 70-80 mph along Sierra ridges this afternoon. Lighter winds below ridge level, between 30-50 mph. Winds will gradually weaken tonight and turn northwesterly. -Dawn
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening CAZ071-072.
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