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FXUS65 KREV 281000 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 200 AM PST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS

Below normal temperatures will continue through the week. A couple of fast moving systems will bring light snow to the region late Thursday through Saturday. This may result in some slick roadways at times, especially outside of daylight hours. High pressure will return early next week with dry weather and more seasonal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

* No wholesale changes were made this morning although there remains lower confidence in snow amounts for late week. For the system Wednesday, definitely weaker and less impact. The systems late Thursday-Thursday night and again Friday night are the ones to watch closely as they could bring impacts from snow, even at lower elevations.

* TODAY THRU MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY: A low pressure system off the CA coast this morning will move inland and open up Wednesday with a majority of the model guidance taking the brunt of the forcing southward now, pretty much skipping the Sierra and western NV. There were a few holdouts, so we maintained some low pops and minimal QPF along the Sierra Wednesday. Otherwise, light winds, below average temperatures and periods of broken- overcast skies will be the general rule the next few days.

* LATE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: Northwest flow aloft will allow for a a couple of shortwaves to move through northern CA-NV, one late Thursday into early Friday morning and a second right on its heels Friday night. Temperatures will remain cold with snow levels down to most valley floors. Latest deterministic model guidance has shifted a bit north this morning, taking the best snowfall potential across far northeast CA into northern NV, keeping snow amounts on the lighter side for the Sierra and western NV. The official forecast shows generally less than 1" in the lower valleys, 1-3" for Sierra valleys and up to 6" near the crest. However, GEFS/ECS meteograms and the upper range of the blended guidance continue to leave a wetter scenario on the table with about a 20-30% chance of seeing double these forecast amounts. Impact potential is there for travelers, especially outside of daylight hours. So if you have travel plans late week, stay tuned as we hone in on the details. We could see just enough gradient to get an occasional period of breezy winds down to the valleys, hopefully mixing out some of this stagnating air.

* WPC 500 mb height clusters are in favor of a ridge returning by early next week. Light rain/snow showers may be ongoing across northeast CA/northern NV on Sunday before the flow off the Pacific lifts a bit north in response to a shortwave ridge Mon- Tue. Beyond Tuesday, confidence decreases as some scenarios show a flattening ridge and additional systems brushing our area. So we could see additional rounds of precipitation mid week. Next week does look milder than this week, regardless.

Hohmann

AVIATION

* TODAY THRU THURSDAY AM: A weak shortwave trough will move inland Wednesday. There is a 10-20% chance for light snow along the Sierra, but latest model guidance has trended downward as most of the forcing is now projected to split and stay west and south of the Sierra and western NV. Outside of some brief mountain top obscurement/MVFR conditions for Sierra airports Wednesday, VFR conditions and light surface winds will prevail. FL100 southerly winds 15-25 kts through this evening will weaken overnight into Wednesday before turning to the northwest 15-20 kts Thursday.

* LATE THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY: A general northwest flow aloft will allow for a couple of weak shortwaves to move through the region and bring generally light snow accumulations to all elevations.
Latest blended guidance indicates less than 1" snow accumulation for lower elevation terminals and 1-3" for Sierra terminals, mainly late Thursday to early Friday. While best snow potential favors northern NV, about 20-30% of the model simulations are a bit farther south with the track and put down double these projected amounts. A secondary shortwave follows Friday night for additional light accumulations mainly in the Sierra. At a minimum, prepare for impacts to de-icing operations along with periods of terrain obscurement in MVFR/IFR conditions from lowering CIGS/VSBYS.

Hohmann

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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