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FXUS65 KREV 102114 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 114 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to yield dry weather, valley inversions, and near average temperatures next week. Only a few light showers may pop up across far northeast California and northwest Nevada this evening into Monday. Dry conditions look to continue at least through the end of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Widespread high clouds continue to stream across a dirty high pressure ridge across the Western U.S. This ridge has been responsible for our light winds and poor ventilation in the valleys thanks to some very strong valley inversions. This morning's balloon sounding showed over a 20F degree increase in temperature from about 5000-6500 feet msl. As such, this will continue to trap particulates in lower valley communities with some degradation in air quality evident from area air quality sensors.

However, we may see some modest improvement to ventilation for the valleys as a weak and mostly dry shortwave trough skids across northern Nevada tonight through Tuesdays which will shift surface winds north to northeast through this period. As this wave approaches, winds across the Sierra ridgetops may see gusts in the 40-50 mph range this evening into Monday morning.

Otherwise, we'll be see a mild day with highs roughly 5-10 degrees above season averages today and near average temperatures for much of the upcoming week. Precipitation prospects look rather limited this week with only a 15% chance for a stray shower across the Surprise Valley in E.Modoc County tonight. The next signal for precipitation doesn't turn up until around the Dec 18-19th timeframe, but even then confidence is low as a developing low in the eastern Pacific basin shows a tendency for this low to cut-off, dig south, and slow. Mainly beyond Dec 21st, is when the larger scale pattern could turn more zonal and open up to better precipitation potential as indicated in both the EC/GFS ensembles.
Fuentes

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through Monday with continued hazy conditions for lower valley terminals due to strong valley inversions in place. Areas of patchy FZFG will again be possible for KTRK overnight. A weak low pressure system brushing by to the north of the Sierra may increase Sierra ridgetop winds (FL100)
this evening into Monday with gusts up to 45 knots possible. This may yield areas of turbulence along the Sierra through Monday morning. Fuentes

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
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Sun -- 12:57 AM PST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:53 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:36 AM PST     1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:40 AM PST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:56 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:19 PM PST     3.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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