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FXUS65 KREV 030801 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 101 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

SYNOPSIS

* High pressure brings a prolonged heatwave starting on Wednesday through mid-week next week.

* Afternoon highs will be 10-20 degrees above average by the weekend resulting in a moderate to major HeatRisk.

* It will remain very dry with typical afternoon breezes, and a very low chance, less than 5%, for precipitation in the weekend.

DISCUSSION

No major changes to the forecast. Summer heat is the theme for the rest of the week and next week.

There is good agreement with deterministic and ensemble model data about a heat event occurring for the rest of the week into next week. The culprit, an upper ridge transiting east from the East Pacific into the Great Basin and eventually moving towards the Four Corners. It is a very slow moving area of high pressure.
So we will be feeling its effects all the way into next week. We start seeing hints of a weak upper trough developing towards the middle of next week. Therefore, this is when we expect temperatures to cool down a bit. Plus there are some hints of precipitation for the Sierra, mainly by the CMC, by Monday and Tuesday.

The main hazard is heat. NBM guidance continues to indicate western NV will see temperatures above 100 F starting on Wednesday. Although the probability is low for Wednesday at 10-30%, and 20-50% by Thursday, July 4th. For the rest of the weekend and into early next week, the probabilities are higher for reaching the triple digits. From Saturday to Monday, probabilities for reaching 105 F are 30-60% across the valleys of western NV and northeast CA. Reno has a 35-40% chance of reaching its all time record high on Saturday and Sunday. On these same days, Lake Tahoe communities, Truckee, and Mammoth Lakes have chances greater than 60% of exceeding 90 degrees, and 20-50% of reaching 95 F. Next week, temperatures have a slight cool down but it is still going to be hot. For the above reasons, we have an Excessive Heat Watch through next Wednesday for western NV. We are likely going to be upgrading to a warning in the next forecast package for the weekend. We are also planning on adding advisories to NE CA and the Sierra from Friday through Sunday, if there are no significant changes.

Winds through the period are expected to be generally light or typical for this time of the year. However, models are hinting at a slight uptick early next week with wind gusts up to 40 mph in mountain areas. This would bring some concerns for fire weather after a period of hot and dry conditions. There are also some hints of precipitation besides Monday and Tuesday towards the end of the week beyond the forecast period, when a weak upper trough appears to try and push the ridge away from the region. However, the chances for showers and thunderstorms still remain at or below 5%.

-Crespo

AVIATION

VFR conditions continue through the period. Clear skies with a few clouds remain in the forecast. Winds continue to be light and VRB, except during the afternoon and early evening, where they become generally from the northwest with speeds up to 10 kts and gust up to 15 to 20 kts. Temperatures continue to rise through the weekend resulting in density altitude concerns across the whole area.

-Crespo

FIRE WEATHER

No major changes from yesterday. Heat continues to be the theme for the rest of the week and into next week. Furthermore, dry to very dry conditions will accompany the heat through the whole area. Afternoon highs are expected to rise each day, reaching values of 10-20 degrees above normal by the weekend. A slight cool down is expected by mid-week next week. Minimum relative humidity will be generally in the single digits over the lower elevations and low to mid teens in the higher elevations of mountain areas. At least winds are expected to remain below any critical thresholds through most of the weekend. However, models are hinting at some gusts near or above 30 mph starting on Sunday, especially over mountain areas. So, will need to keep an eye out on those over the next few days, because this could lead to periods of near critical conditions for those localized areas.
There are also some very slight chances for showers and thunderstorms starting on Monday afternoon. However, the chances remain at or below 5%.

-Crespo

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Wednesday morning NVZ001-003>005.

CA...None.

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