DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

In the upper levels, a broad ridge dominates north central CONUS, with an upper level trough over south central CONUS. Upstream of the ridging, is another trough moving into central Canada. At the surface, there is a high to the northeast over the Great Lakes region and a low over SD. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the area this evening with low level convergence between the two surface features. No severe weather is expected at this time, however a few storms could produce strong conditions.
CAPE values ranging from 1,000-2,000 J/kg and 70 degree dew points suggest a decent amount of instability and moisture for the area, but shear is almost non-existent. If storms are able to develop they are expected to be fairly short-lived with the main threat being strong winds and small hail. PWATs above 1.25 inches also suggest a potential for short bursts of heavy rainfall.

Through the weekend, a 500MB low becomes more defined as a result of the upper level low over south central CONUS. This 500MB low is expected to move further north passing along the MO/IL border. As a result, there may be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. At this time, no severe is expected, but best chances seem to be on Sunday afternoon/evening as CAPE values remain around 1,000-2,000 J/kg and shear values increase to around 30-40 knots as stronger winds move in on the backside of the the upper low. The main threats at this time seem to be strong to damaging winds and hail.

Early Sunday morning, another surface low develops in western KS shifting our winds firmly to the south. In addition, a strong 850MB thermal ridge develops to our west. By Monday, the thermal ridge is expected to move into our area. As a result, heat indices are forecasted to range from 100-110 degrees F. The thermal ridge over the next few days seems to stagnate and remain over the area providing a stretch of unpleasant heat. Next Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the most intense with heat indices getting as high 112 degrees F. We will continue to monitor conditions closely to determine whether or not heat headlines will be necessary.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Diurnal cu persists at all terminals, with south/southeasterly winds around 5-10 knots that will persist for the forecast period. Current rain showers remain out east and the formation of SH/TS at all terminals is not favored, so keeping any mentions of prevailing wx out of the near term. Some guidance suggests the introduction of cloud ceilings lowering to MVFR (1500-3000 ft) by the early afternoon tomorrow. However, most guidance is favoring ceilings to remain above MVFR, so including a BKN050 layer at all terminals to account for this possibility.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.