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FXUS65 KREV 291024 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 224 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS

After one more dry and cool day, it will remain chilly through the weekend with chances for rain and snow showers. Snow amounts will generally be light, but could produce some slick roads, including the Friday morning commute. Milder daytime temperatures are still on track for next week.

DISCUSSION

* After a quiet and cool day today, a northwest flow pattern will set up across the region Thursday and persist through the weekend. This will allow for a series of shortwaves to move from the PacNW through the northern Great Basin and bring extensive cloud cover, showers and periodic breezy winds to the northern Sierra and western NV. Heaviest QPF/Snowfall still favors locations near and north of the Oregon border into northeast NV with generally lighter amounts farther south. This is a cool pattern, so do not expect temperatures to warm much with snow levels near or just above the lower valley floors through early Saturday.

* Total QPF/Snowfall continue to fluctuate as should be expected given we are on the southern periphery of a fast storm track where slight variations inherently bring some uncertainty into the forecast process. As an example, this morning's official forecast is a bit wetter than Tuesday afternoon's forecast but drier than the previous night's forecast. For the first couple of systems Thursday through early Saturday, forecast snowfall accumulations range from 3-6" along the crest and 1-4" in Sierra valleys and northern Lassen/Washoe counties to generally a dusting to 1/2" elsewhere. However, ensemble guidance, now including the latest SREF, continues to show a handful of wetter scenarios where the Tahoe Basin could receive double the projected amounts while some western NV locations could reach or exceed 1" of snowfall (roughly a 20% chance). Biggest impacts will be at night and during the late afternoon/early morning periods when temperatures will be cold enough to allow for some slick road conditions. This would include the Friday morning commute. Snow levels are expected to rise by Sunday which will lessen the impacts to mainly Sierra passes.

* Occasional breezy winds with gusts 20-30 mph at times Friday into the weekend. Winds will be strongest across the ridges and Sierra backcountry as 700 mb flow increases to 30-45 kts. Gusts will likely exceed 80 mph at times across the higher Sierra peaks. Hopefully, these winds will be sufficient to mix out the stagnant valley air that has been building under strong valley inversions for a number of days now.

* High pressure is likely to push the storm track north for 2-3 days early next week and allow for lighter winds and moderating temperatures. There is still quite a bit of model spread from the middle of next week and beyond as medium range guidance (supported by 500 mb Hgt cluster analysis) indicate the ridge flattening and allowing additional storms to make their way into the PacNW.

Hohmann

AVIATION

* VFR through tonight with light winds occasional mid-high clouds.

* Northwest flow aloft will allow for a series of fast moving shortwaves to move through northern CA-northern NV Thursday through the weekend, bringing increasing chances for showers and occasional breezy winds. FL100 winds will increase to 25-35 kts, occasionally stronger, beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Sunday evening. This may yield occasional gusts to 20-25 kts at area terminals along with light-moderate turbulence. Best snowfall accumulation potential will be across north/northeast NV with the most likely scenario for our area showing 1-3" snow potential at Sierra terminals and a dusting for lower elevation airports between Thursday night and Saturday morning. There are a few higher end scenarios (about a 20% chance of occurrence) for double the amounts at Tahoe area terminals and up to 1" for lower elevation airports. Expect periods of terrain obscurement in MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS, most pronounced at KTRK-KTVL.

Hohmann

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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