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FXUS66 KSTO 291028 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 228 AM PST Wed Nov 29 2023

Synopsis
A few showers are possible Wednesday morning, followed by mostly sunny conditions. Shower and mountain snow chances increase late week and into the Saturday, then decrease again on Sunday.
Drier weather early next week.

Discussion
RADAR is currently showing showers moving over the Delta region and Coastal Range, and into the Valley. This marks the start of precipitation chances over the area for the next few days. Showers will mostly be relegated to the overnight and early morning hours in the Coastal Range, Delta region, and western side of the Valley, receding in the morning until late Thursday when showers will begin again in the mountains. Low temperatures this morning and on Thursday morning will be slightly warmer than they have been the last few days due to cloud cover from the current low pressure system. However, Valley lows are still on track to reach around the mid 30s to low 40s the next couple of days, so chilly mornings aren't entirely out of the picture. High temperatures today and Thursday will remain mild, with Valley temperatures in the low 60s, and temperatures in the foothills and mountains reaching the mid 50s and mid 40s to low 50s respectively.

As we move into late Thursday and early Friday, another fast moving low pressure system will move over the area, bringing cooler temperatures and higher chances of precipitation to the area. Valley rain will be light and mostly relegated to the eastern portion near the foothills; otherwise, precipitation can primarily be expected in the foothills and mountains. Currently, the NBM is showing a 10 to 20% chance of a quarter inch or more of precipitation in the Valley, and a 35 to 65% chance in the foothills and mountains. There is also a 15 to 55% chance of snow accumulations of 6 inches or more in the mountains. Snow levels will fluctuate over this time period as well, starting around 4500 to 5000 ft on Thursday, lowering to 3000-4000 ft by early Friday, and eventually rising again to 4000 to 4500 ft later that day.

Shower chances continue on Saturday, this time with the highest probabilities occurring in the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills, and mountains. Probabilities of seeing a quarter inch or more of precipitation on Saturday are 30 to 60% in the northern Sacramento Valley, 35 to 60% in the foothills and mountains.
Additionally, there is a 15 to 55% chance of snow accumulations of 6 inches or more in the mountains. By late Saturday, a ridging pattern will begin to build west of the area, which will eventually start to push out the trough and lower chances of precipitation as we move further into the weekend.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Ensembles and clusters indicate ridging building over the forecast area from the Pacific Sunday and lasting through the early portions of next week. A low moving into the Pacific NW brings the potential for more unsettled weather. Temperatures warm on Monday through midweek with chances for light precipitation over the mountains and the Northern Sac. Valley Sunday and again midweek next week.

AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected over interior NorCal for the next 24 hours with low chances of MVFR conditions from mist/haze in the Southern Sac. Valley/Northern San Joaquin Valley before 18Z Tuesday. Surface winds will generally be below 12 kts.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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