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FXUS66 KSTO 092121 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 121 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

Synopsis
Quiet and generally seasonable weather prevails through the weekend and into the week ahead. Cold morning temperatures may lead to areas of Valley frost.

Some high clouds are moving over interior NorCal on GOES-18 West this morning, though otherwise conditions remain dry and clear.
Winds and gusts have also calmed over the course of the morning, as a high pressure system has overtaken the area. Temperatures overnight in most of the Valley were quite cold, reaching below freezing in some locations like Modesto, Lincoln, and Marysville.
Tonight, conditions will begin to warm a little, though there is still a 20-70% chance of temperatures at or below freezing at many Valley locations.

While daytime temperatures will remain at or near normal today, the ridge will allow temperatures on Sunday to warm to a couple to a few degrees above normal for the time of year. A weak shortwave trough is expected to pass through the area late on Sunday, though temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will still be a few degrees above normal. The trough is not expected to bring any precipitation to our area, though there is a small probability (10-30%) that some light precipitation could occur in the northwestern portion of Shasta County. Tuesday will see another ridge move in over the area, continuing the dry and clam weather, as well as bringing some breezier conditions to the mountains and western edge of the Valley. //SP

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Upper level ridging will once again build over the area on Wednesday as the weak disturbance moves off into the four corners area. The ridging aloft will help keep temperatures mainly in the low 60s for Valley locations, and in the 50s for higher elevations through Friday. As we move into Saturday, in the Pacific a closed low is projected to develop and possibly bring precipitation to the Coastal Range and western Sacramento Valley Saturday afternoon. There is still a large amount of uncertainty with the development of the closed low, strength, and timing, but ensembles (GFS and ECMWF) both show a potential pattern change arriving late next weekend.

AVIATION
VFR conditions prevail around the area for the next 24 hours.
Isolated MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions possible in Valley TAF sites, mainly Sacramento southward, for BR conditions starting around 12z on Sunday. Confidence is relatively low on fog development.
Surface winds will be generally below 12 knots for the area.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Sacramento #4
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Sat -- 12:09 AM PST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:46 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:39 AM PST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:11 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:01 AM PST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:26 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:54 PM PST     2.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM PST     Sunset
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Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

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