Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carnelian Bay, CA

DISCUSSION

Mostly clear skies this afternoon will become partly cloudy by the evening hours, potentially lingering overnight. This may hinder fog development in the Truckee/Martis Valley area tonight, though a 30% chance of freezing fog is still queued up for tomorrow morning. The primary concern will be reduced visibilities.

Warm and dry conditions will prevail through Saturday, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s for valleys and mid 60s for Sierra communities. A closed low will materialize along the CA coast Saturday, which will bring a 20-40% chance for showers, most notably in the Tahoe Basin and along the Sierra Front.
However, 10-20% chances can be expected across NE CA as well as N Washoe, S Lyon, and Mineral counties. Friends in Pershing and Churchill counties luck out at least Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will range from 10-15% Saturday.

Sunday looks to be the most interesting day, forecast-wise, with widespread chances for thunderstorms (15-40%). The aforementioned low has a negative tilt to it Sunday, which helps provide additional forcing. Model MUCAPE values range from 500-800 J/kg Sunday with 500-600 J/kg along the Sierra Front and up to 800 J/kg in the Tahoe Basin. Snow levels remain above 8500' Sunday; the main impacts will be brief heavy rainfall, hail or pellet showers, frequent lightning, and erratic outflows.

Cooler and showery weather continues through at least Tuesday, with shower chances diminishing each day. A warming trend reignites by Wednesday, with highs reaching the 80s for valleys by next weekend as high pressure settles back over the area.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through at least Saturday morning. The only exception will be at KTRK from 9-16Z where there's a 30% chance of patchy FZFG to develop again tonight.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.