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FXUS65 KREV 050913 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 113 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light winds, dry conditions, and mild afternoons will hang around through today. More active weather returns Wednesday with a couple of quick storms poised to push through the region. Plan on gusty winds, Sierra snow and valley rain with travel and recreation impacts likely. Quiet, dry weather makes a comeback for Friday and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Wind forecast has trended up once again with medium to high forecaster confidence for strong winds along the Highway 395 and Interstate 580 corridor from Susanville through Mono county. Strong, gusty crosswinds may result in high-profile vehicle impacts midday Wednesday into the evening. See the Wind Advisories for the details.

Enjoy the last bit of above normal temperatures along with light winds and dry conditions. Lower valleys in the upper 50s to low 60s isn't typical for early December, so enjoy the shorts weather and the sun while it lasts today. The pair of systems projected to push through the Sierra and western Nevada Wednesday into Thursday are still on track to bring gusty winds, Sierra snow, and valley rain.
Let's dive into the details.

Winds: Simulations remain on track for a bout of strong west to southwest winds. The first hints of the wind will start late tonight into early Wednesday for the upper elevations and far northeastern CA. By midday Wednesday, winds will begin to mix down to the lower valley areas with wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range for most locations. Wind prone areas, especially along Highway 395-Interstate 580, may experience wind gusts 45-60 mph in the afternoon. This initial system pushes through fast, so the duration of the stronger wind bursts shouldn't last for more than a few hours in the late afternoon-evening. Forecast wind gusts in the Sierra will be between 80-90 mph with wind gusts 100+mph along the Sierra crest. Impacts with strong winds like this include: high-profile vehicle restrictions, ski operations impacts, hazardous boating conditions, as well as aviation turbulence and wind shear. Winds will begin to decrease after sunset on Wednesday, but Sierra ridge winds will remain breezy Wednesday into Thursday as the next system approaches the area.

Rain/Snow: The precipitation potential with these systems remains on the lighter side, but it's better than nothing, right? The Tahoe Basin has a 10-30% chance of 1-3 inches, with some higher peaks in the northern Sierra looking at a 15-25% chance of 6 inches. The foothills in western NV may see a dusting Thursday, and snow levels may drop just low enough for a few snowflakes down in the lowest valleys, but generally it will be rain showers down here. Roads will be slick even if it is just rain, so be sure to plan on slower commute times on Thursday. For our friends south of highway 50, there may be a few snow showers around, but the potential for accumulating snow is lower with only a 20% chance of 4" for Carson and Ebbetts passes.

Freezing Friday: Our pair of systems will leave us out in the cold by Friday with highs for the valleys in the lower 40s. While lighter winds return for most areas, the Sierra ridges will remain a bit breezy. High pressure settles in for the weekend allowing daytime highs to reach into the 50s again for the lower valleys.

Beyond this weekend, the 8-10 day ensemble clusters are leaning toward warmer conditions with high pressure near the West. This isn't a slam dunk, but only 18% of the ensembles show the potential for more zonal flow which would allow a storm or two to push into the region. Extended forecasts still hold some hope for a more active pattern by mid-December.

-Edan



AVIATION

Light winds and dry conditions will likely bring another round of freezing fog to the Martis Valley and KTRK this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail over the region today.

Gusty winds will materialize early Wednesday morning bringing impacts to Sierra terminals first with LLWS and turbulence along and east of the Sierra crest. Ridge gusts will approach 80-90 mph with some peaks seeing 100+ mph. This wind event will bring gusts to the valley terminals of 30-45 mph for Wednesday 18z-Thursday 03z.

Thursday remains breezy, but the wind speeds and potential for rotors and downsloping will not be as pronounced. The storm will bring along mountain snow and valley rain with light totals, but may still affect CIG/VIS and mountain obscuration for Sierra terminals.

-Edan


REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday NVZ002.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday NVZ003.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday CAZ072.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday CAZ073.

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