Tuesday, July14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carnelian Bay, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:29PM Monday July 13, 2020 11:38 PM PDT (06:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 36% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carnelian Bay, CA
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location: 39.22, -120.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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FXUS65 KREV 132204 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 304 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Warm mid-summer like temperatures and typical afternoon breezes will persist over the region this week and well into next week. Thunderstorms will return to the region Wednesday and Thursday which could bring new fire starts along with spots of heavy rainfall.

NEAR TERM. This afternoon through Tuesday .

Another cloudless, hot day today with very dry and stable conditions overhead. Afternoon zephyr winds are expected for the remainder of the day into the evening hours region-wide with your typical 20-30 mph breezes forecast. No change to the high and low temperatures through Tuesday with highs in the 90s, low 100s across western Nevada and solid 80s in the Sierra. Overnight lows are forecast to be right around normal for mid-July.

Tuesday will most likely feature the persistent hot daytime temperatures and less winds during the afternoon hours as the jet stream lifts northward allowing gradients to relax more. Even though a surface temperature gradient will likely be present, short range model guidance shows a lack of a zephyr wind setting up and instead shows a light north-northeast breeze mainly for western Nevada. Don't be surprised to also see some cumulus build-ups over the eastern Sierra in Mono County as mid to upper- level moisture graces us with its presence being transported northward from the south thanks to the strengthening high over the US-Southwest. Thunderstorm development is not expected for Tuesday, but chances increase by mid-week. -LaGuardia REST OF THE WEEK.

Primary focus here will be on thunderstorms returning Wednesday and Thursday as a weak upper low over SoCal brings in increased moisture to the region. ECMWF lightning density product, which has proven useful in previous events, showing this trend nicely. Wednesday storms should be mainly Highway 395 and west into the Sierra. Thursday still looks to be the most widespread t-storm day with more storms well into Nevada along a somewhat stronger zephyr boundary.

Ensemble guidance in good agreement bringing in precipitable water values 0.5 to 0.7” which is kind of a sweet spot for t-storms in this area. Slow storm motions with weak flow aloft should yield locally heavy rainfall right in storm cores. This could be a problem for recently burned areas such as Peavine and east of Gardnerville. Even with slow storm motions, the risk of new fire starts from lightning is elevated both days. Airmass isn't excessively moist (dry to hybrid storms) + the last few weeks of very low humidity have allowed vegetation to dry out even more. Strong outflows will also be present. We’ve posted Fire Weather Watches to alert fire services partners to this hazard. Confidence remains medium, but there’s enough risk to warrant a watch. One (or both) days will likely be a problem with new starts, just not entirely sure which yet.

Temperatures this week into next are heavily favoring above normal, but not necessarily record setting given the lack of a big heat ridge developing over the Great Basin in ECMWF ensemble guidance. Once we get past Thursday, thunderstorm risk looks to wane with more typical afternoon-evening zephyr breezes into the upcoming weekend and next week. Can’t rule out isolated storms over higher terrain but too far out for any meaningful predictability.

-Chris

AVIATION.

VFR conditions through mid-week. Lighter winds expected for the remainder of the day with peak gusts around 20-25 kts, then light winds for Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast confidence is increasing in isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms starting Wednesday in the eastern Sierra and Tahoe Basin with even more thunderstorm coverage for Thursday extending into the Sierra Front region. Storms are possible each afternoon through the weekend, with the best chances for impacts to all area terminals on Thursday at this time. -LaGuardia/Hoon

FIRE WEATHER.

We’ve posted a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon-evening for the Sierra Front, Tahoe Basin, and Eastern Sierra due to increased risk for lightning caused fires. Also into NE California for Thursday. Recent weeks of very dry air have likely allowed vegetation to become quite receptive to lightning and this could include even larger sized fuels in the foothills and mountains. Admittedly, this pattern does favor slower moving storms with spots of heavy rainfall in the storm cores. However, the airmass is not excessively moist - more indicative of hybrid to dry’ish storms with strong outflows. So outside of the cores lightning hazards will still be present. Admittedly, this is only a medium confidence scenario but we feel it’s worth a watch to provide a heads up.

Also as a heads up, there is potential for debris flows and mudslides on recent burn areas such as the Poeville and Numbers Fires. If one of these storms does form over the burn scars, rainfall amounts could be sufficient to trigger flooding. However we’re too far out for any meaningful guidance beyond that including specific rainfall potentials and probabilities. Tomorrow we’ll get within the window of the convective resolving guidance which could give us a glimpse into those rain potentials.

-Chris

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories. NV . Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening NVZ420-421.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening NVZ420-421.

CA . Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening CAZ271-272-274-278.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening CAZ272-274.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA7 mi63 minS 310.00 miFair54°F41°F63%1021.3 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV19 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair72°F41°F33%1017.6 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA22 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair59°F41°F51%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTRK

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento, Sacramento River, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:50 AM PDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:29 AM PDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:05 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:51 PM PDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM PDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.22.62.72.62.31.91.51.10.80.50.40.40.81.31.71.81.71.41.10.80.70.60.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.