Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carnelian Bay, CA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:25PM Friday July 19, 2019 3:16 AM PDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carnelian Bay, CA
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location: 39.22, -120.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Reno, NV
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Fxus65 krev 191000
afdrev
area forecast discussion
national weather service reno nv
300 am pdt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Mid-summer heat will prevail through early next week with highs
near 100 degrees for several western nevada locations. A few
thunderstorms are possible near the sierra by Saturday afternoon,
with conditions likely becoming more favorable for showers and
thunderstorms starting Sunday and continuing through next week.

Short term
Other than removing mention of thunder for lassen county today,
the current forecast remains intact. Temperatures will remain
above average through the weekend, with Sunday being the overall
warmest with highs near 100 degrees for some valley sites.

Overnight lows will also creep upward toward the end of the
weekend, with some areas remaining above 65 degrees.

Cumulus development was flat over the lassen and mineral-mono
convergence zones yesterday with warm air aloft capping vertical
development. The cap isn't quite as strong today, but remains
significant enough to prevent any thunderstorm activity, with
no forcing mechanism or upper disturbance present, that could
overcome or sufficiently erode this inhibition to convection.

By Saturday, flow aloft becomes weaker as high pressure ridge
expands across more of the great basin. This will help set up
convergence along the sierra crest, while some mid level cooling
brings some increased instability. Some of the model ensemble
data sources indicate potential for isolated thunderstorms
developing from mid-late afternoon, favoring alpine and northern
mono counties between ebbetts and tioga passes, and likely
remaining west of us-395.

Sunday continues to be a day to watch for possible thunderstorms
producing little to no rainfall and erratic gusty winds. With
increased daytime heating and a weak trough near the ca coast,
high based convection potential will increase in the afternoon,
with the main threats being lightning-ignited fires and strong
outflow wind gusts of 50+ mph, even with cells that may look
unimpressive on radar or satellite. An upper disturbance could
keep elevated convection going through Sunday night for parts of
northeast ca to far northwest nv. See the fire weather segment
below for additional details impacts of this weather scenario for
Sunday-Sunday night. Mjd

Long term Monday onward...

changes: added a slight chance of nocturnal thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday morning through extreme northeast california
into northern washoe county and western pershing county.

The weather pattern may finally be shifting as the four corners
high expands westward. The ever present trough that has been
sitting along or just off the west coast, however, isn't going
anywhere fast. It remains just off the pacific NW coast, setting
up a rather strong jet for july between these two features the
early part of next week.

So, what does this mean for our weather? Well, first off, we'll
remain warm with daytime temps near to about 5 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. The warmth will bring increasing
low-level instability, while shortwaves moving around the base of
the trough will increase mid-level instability for northeast
california into washoe county and pershing county for the first
part of the week. Moisture is slowly increasing from the south,
with afternoon thunderstorms continuing to be possible, and likely
expanding in coverage through the week. The greater concern is
the nocturnal thunderstorm potential Monday night into early
Tuesday. Forecast soundings are showing mid-level lapse rates
around 8 degrees c km with 20-25 kts of wind through the storm
motion layer. This means that any storms that may develop would
have a high likelihood of dry lightning strikes, with definite
concerns for new fire starts should storms develop.

As we continue into the week, moisture does begin to increase
further, with slower storm motions, so the pattern could
transition towards wetter thunderstorms. There is better support
in the ensembles that the ridge will remain the dominant player
in our weather heading into the end of july, which is
climatologically quite typical. A few members, however, do still
try to hold onto the trough near the pacific northwest coast, as
has been the pattern for months now. For now, will maintain the
seasonably warm temperatures with the best chances for
thunderstorms mainly south of i-80. This agrees well with cfs
weekly guidance and the CPC outlook as well. -dawn

Aviation
Typical westerly afternoon breezes will be weaker today as
compared to recent days with peak gusts of 15-20 kts from
approximately 20z-04z. While cumulus is likely to develop today
downwind of lassen peak, it appears that the atmosphere will be
too capped for thunderstorms to develop.

As the pattern begins to shift, afternoon thunderstorms become
more likely this weekend into next week. Greatest threats this
weekend will be gusty and erratic outflow winds along with
turbulence due to the convection. By the middle into the end of
next week, lowering CIGS vis from locally heavy rain, especially
south of i-80, becomes more likely. The other concern is the
potential for mainly dry nocturnal storms Sunday night and Monday
night in northeast ca and portions of western nevada.

For this weekend:
Saturday: 15% chance of a thunderstorm to develop mono alpine
counties.

Sunday: 15-20% chance for storms from kmmh northward from
approximately us-395 to us-95. -dawn

Fire weather
Our pattern looks to be shifting, with increasing chances for
thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend into next week.

Initially the greatest threat will be gusty and erratic outflow
winds and storms will very little rainfall. Pay special attention
to the nocturnal thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday nights
in northeast california into western nevada (mainly northern
washoe county into western pershing county). These fast-moving
storms could easily bring dry lightning and spark new wildfires
should they develop. As we transition into the middle and end of
next week, storms are likely to become wetter with the greatest
threat from approximately i-80 south. -dawn

Rev watches warnings advisories
Nv... None.

Ca... None.

For more information from the national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov reno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Truckee-Tahoe, CA7 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair46°F41°F82%1020.3 hPa
Carson City Airport, NV19 mi21 minN 0 G 1110.00 miFair68°F42°F40%1015.9 hPa
South Lake Tahoe, Lake Tahoe Airport, CA22 mi23 minS 310.00 miFair48°F44°F86%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from TRK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3--SW11
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--SW8SW7W7W7W4CalmS4CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmNE6W4CalmW8NW12
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W7W4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento, Sacramento River, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California
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Sacramento #4
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Fri -- 04:43 AM PDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:30 AM PDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:40 PM PDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:29 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:51 PM PDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.91.51.2111.42.32.932.82.521.510.50.2-0-00.41.21.92.42.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Reno, NV (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Reno, NV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.