Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM   Moonset 8:17 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS65 KREV 080933 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 233 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS

Following a chilly morning, the region expects to see another dry and breezy day today. A warming and drying trend ensues through the latter half of the week, with above average temperatures expected this weekend. The return of precipitation chances within the region may be possible to begin next week.

DISCUSSION

According to the latest RAP analysis, the CWA currently has a north- northwesterly upper air flow being underneath the western portion of an upper air trough with an upper air low over the Northern Plains and an upper air high to the north of it over SK/MB. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report generally light and variable winds underneath clear skies across the region. Going through the rest of today, forecast ensemble guidance shows the CWA's upper air flow veering to the north by the afternoon before turning to the northeast as the CWA will be underneath the area between a positively tilted ridge in the north/northeast and a positively tilted trough to the east/southeast. At the surface, a backdoor cold front is expected to pass through the region this morning allowing for cool daytime high temperatures ranging from the 50s in northeast CA and the Sierra Mountains to the lower 60s in western NV. One concern looks to be around Lake Tahoe and the Sierra Mountain areas to the east in CA as models are showing around 5-7 mb pressure gradient across those areas especially in the evening and going into the night with a surface low residing in central CA. While the region expects to see some breezy northeasterly surface winds during the day behind the cold front, the placement of the aforementioned surface low along will allow for gusty easterly winds during starting in the evening going through the night that will cause Lake Wind Advisory criteria to be met at Lake Tahoe during that time. While low temperatures tonight generally look to be slightly warmer that the previous night, areas around the Tahoe Basin and south into Mono County may see near to below freezing lows once again tonight into tomorrow morning. May want to consider continuing protecting the sensitive vegetation at least for another night within these areas.

Going through the rest of the week, model guidance forecasts an upper air low to develop over UT on Thursday that will move a bit eastward over the NV/UT border on Friday. On Saturday, models project the low to start to move over the Four Corners region with a quicker progression seen in the GEFS compared to the ECMWF EPS leaving the CWA underneath an upper air ridge residing over the western half of the CONUS. With this upper air pattern, a warming trend can be expected going into the weekend with daytime high temperatures up to the lower 70s returning to the western NV portions of the region on Thursday followed by highs up to the middle 70s on Friday. By Saturday, high temperatures look to range between around the 70 degree mark in the Sierra to around the 80 degree mark in western NV. Minimal precipitation chances are in the forecast as well with not much cloud cover expected, so dry conditions look to prevail going into the weekend.

As for next week, ensemble guidance shows the CWA staying underneath the ridge on Sunday followed by a weak upper air trough passing through central and southern CA on Monday and to the south of the CWA on the beginning of Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, models suggest another large upper air ridge beginning to move into the Pacific Northwest that will cover the western third of the CONUS by Wednesday. At the surface, it looks like daytime highs ranging between the lower 70s to the middle 80s are on tap for the first half of next week at this time. There does look to be some low chances (up to around 20%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms within the region on Sunday afternoon and evening with similar chances for precipitation being seen on Monday for the southern half of the CWA Confidence in these precipitation chances continues to be low to medium due to some inconsistency with the last few model runs, so will continue to monitor this going forward. Tuesday and Wednesday are currently forecast to be mostly dry. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions expect to prevail for all REV TAF sites throughout the week with little to no cloud cover expected. A backdoor cold front passage will cause a northeasterly flow today that will persist into the afternoon with some breezy gusts around 20-25 kts beginning in the late morning/early afternoon at the REV terminals.

Temperatures will continue to warm to above average into the weekend, with chances for afternoon/evening isolated showers and thunderstorms possibly increasing (around 10-20%) by Sunday and Monday. However, forecaster confidence still remains low to medium at this time. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072.

Sacramento, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Sacramento #4
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:39 AM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:07 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM PDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:07 PM PDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:54 PM PDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:20 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sacramento #4, Sacramento River, California, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Reno, NV,