Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cynthiana, OH

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Mesoanalysis shows that weak instability in the Tri-State has become elevated. This will translate north northeast through the night in association with strengthening low level flow. Thus far, convection has really struggled to get started with only very light echoes and marginally cooler cloud tops moving into northern Kentucky. But there is still potential for scattered activity to move up through western counties over the next several hours. Mid level lapse rates are rather unimpressive, so the potential for any stronger convection seems quite low.

Beyond that, line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will track in from the west late, reaching near the Indiana-Ohio line by daybreak.
Little to no change to the forecast temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The sfc low will continue to lift NE into the northern Great Lakes into Monday. As it does, the warm front will clear the local area toward daybreak as the cold front rapidly approaches from the W. Along the front, SCT to numerous SHRA, along with a few TS, are likely through the morning locally.

Drier conditions should evolve NW to SE into early afternoon as the front pivots through the area. Dry air wrapping around on southern base of the low center will advect into the region by Monday afternoon, supporting steepening LL lapse rates and increased vertical mixing. This will lead to very breezy conditions once again by the afternoon, especially in areas that are able to clear out sufficiently near/W of I-71 earlier in the daytime. SW winds on the order of ~20kts and gusts to near 30kts are expected by the afternoon amidst scattering cloud cover. Gusts should remain sub-advisory, but certainly a few gusts close to 35kts (especially near/N of I-70) cannot be ruled out in this well-mixed environment. Winds will subside toward sunset and beyond as the vertical mixing decreases and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Temps in the mid 70s Monday afternoon will dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s by daybreak Tuesday as clearer skies build in from the NW as sfc high pressure settles into the TN Vly. Some cloud cover may linger in NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley into Tuesday morning, keeping temps in these areas a bit warmer than for locales further to the NW where clearer skies and weakening winds will establish some good radiational cooling conditions.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Weak ridging and quasi-zonal H5 flow move into the region on Tuesday; higher than average heights translate to warm conditions throughout the week. Closer to the surface, high pressure works its way in, leading to a quiet and dry pattern through midweek.

The next chance for precipitation arrives late week as a weak shortwave swings up from the four corners region, dragging a deepening/maturing surface low along with it. A slug of moisture moves into much of the Mid-Atlantic region and PWATs climb to 200% of normal. Meanwhile temperatures rise into the upper 70s (low 80s?)
Wednesday/Thursday.

Low end PoPs are reintroduced on Thursday as the warm front lifts through the region and the trailing cold front will push through sometime between Thurs night- Saturday early hours. Pretty good confidence that we'll have some thunder with this system given the influx of moisture and warmth, but we'll have to wait for additional details and clarity.

After the cold front/ low pressure system progress off to the east, cold air advection moves in and temperatures fall to seasonal normals for the weekend. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the low dry the area out.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR will prevail through the first half of the period outside of any showers and thunderstorms. Showers have been struggling to develop as a weak disturbance heads towards Cincinnati. There may still be further development, and perhaps even some thunderstorms, as this disturbance moves north northeast. Winds will be veering and slowly strengthening. But winds aloft will be stronger with low level wind shear until around 12Z.

Additional showers and possibly thunderstorms will move west to east across the region after 12Z. This will bring a period of MVFR ceilings, possibly even briefly dropping below 2kft. The potential for precipitation will end with the passage of a cold front.
Ceilings will lift to VFR and some locations may even scatter. Winds will veer to the southwest and increase with gusts to around 30 kt.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.