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ANZ453 Coastal Waters From Great Egg Inlet To Cape May Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am est this morning...
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. SW swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds, becoming S around 2 ft at 6 seconds in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds, becoming nw at 3 seconds after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 3 seconds, becoming ne around 2 ft at 5 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. N swell 2 to 3 ft at 5 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. N swell 2 to 5 ft at 4 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ400 102 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. One area of low pressure lifts through the region tonight as another area of low pressure over the great lakes moves into northern new york and eastern canada late tonight into Monday. High pressure then briefly builds through the region. A weak clipper system passes through the mid-atlantic on Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the week. A stronger frontal system may impact the area late next weekend.

FXUS61 KPHI 040612 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 112 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure passes offshore tonight, while another area of low pressure over the Great Lakes moves into northern New York and eastern Canada through Monday. High pressure then briefly builds through the region. A weak clipper system passes through the Mid- Atlantic on Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the week. A stronger storm system may impact the area late next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
It's another dreary night out there, although the fog has been much more localized and generally not as thick as Saturday night. While some patches of mist or drizzle may linger through 3 AM or so, any organized or measurable rain has lifted northeast into New England. Behind the departing surface low, some dry air will slowly work its way in with, gradually improving conditions expected as the night goes on. Visibilities have already improved considerably in some areas of southeastern PA as the drier air is beginning to filter in from the west. There is some patchy dense fog after midnight outside of Allentown toward the Raritan River Valley, but that should not last past 3 AM or so. Temperatures will continue to gradually drop into the upper 30s/low 40s by morning.

Relatively quiet weather overall for Monday as a deamplifying trough approaches the region. Weakening low pressure will slide by to the south, but the only impact overall looks to be some mid to high level cloud cover passing later in the day.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 40s/low 50s, which would qualify as seasonable for early December. Areas within the Pocono plateau will stay in the low 40s. A west to northwest breeze near 10-15 mph will make it feel a bit cooler. Some gusts up to 20 mph are possible.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will build east Monday night, and then slides off the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the base of an H5 trough with strong shortwave energy passes north of the region Monday night.
Conditions will be dry throughout the local area, but cannot rule out some Lake Effect flurries making their way down into the southern Poconos.

Another, deeper, H5 trough then approaches Tuesday night, and the base of the trough will pass through the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation will mainly be south of Delmarva, and will carry chance PoPs for Delmarva and slight chance PoPs for southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.
Surface temperatures may be cold enough to support some snow in southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey, but QPF will be minimal, and not expecting much in the way of accumulation. At least a rain/snow mix could even develop in southern portions of Delmarva.

Precipitation tapers off on Wednesday as the base of the trough slides offshore as a cold front passes through the region.

Lows Monday night will mostly be in the low to mid 30s, then highs on Tuesday will generally be in the low to mid 40s, with highs in the upper 40s in Delmarva. Cold Tuesday night with lows in the 20s to low 30s, then highs on Wednesday will only be in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states will build east Wednesday night before sliding off the Southeast coast on Friday. Cold on dry conditions on tap for Thursday with highs only in the low 40s, but return flow sets up behind the departing high, and warm air advection will be underway for the end of the week. Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s for Friday, and then in the upper 50s Saturday and possibly into the low 60s Sunday for southern portions.

A developing storm system could affect the region late next weekend. There are too many inconsistencies among the models to say which way, but it looks like it could be rainy by Sunday.
Will cap NBM PoPs at high chance for now.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR ceiling and visibility restrictions lingering to 06-08Z north of PHL and TTN, and across portions of rural NJ, DE and MD. Improvement will continue generally west to east with drier air filtering in on light westerly winds. VFR conditions are forecast thereafter.

Monday...VFR. Westerly winds increasing to near 10 kts with gusts up to 18 kts after 15z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR Tuesday, then mostly VFR Tuesday night. Some light rain and/or snow may briefly reduce CIGs/VSBYs Tuesday night. Light N winds. Low confidence.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Any light rain and/or snow tapers off Wednesday morning, then improving conditions. If conditions are not VFR Wednesday morning, they will be Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt on Thursday, becoming SW Thursday night, then S on Friday. High confidence.

MARINE
The Marine Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire earlier.
While visibility has largely improved this evening, some areas of fog and drizzle may briefly reduce visibility to near 1 to 2 NM at times, mainly around Delaware Bay and adjacent ocean waters until 3 AM or so. Fair weather and good visibility is forecast for Monday.

Seas that were a bit higher than forecast earlier this evening, into the 5-6 ft range, have generally settled below 5 ft at all the buoys. However, as cooler and drier air pushes in overnight, we will see westerly winds pick up through early morning, with some gusts to 25 kt possible, particularly beyond 10 nm of shore. Hence, we have a marginal Small Craft Advisory for ocean waters from Cape Henlopen northward until 9 AM.

For the rest of Monday, westerly winds will be around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Outlook

Monday night...W winds pick up slightly once again to 15 to 20 kt. A SCA may be needed if gusts to 25 kt develop. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...An SCA will likely be needed. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions. W to SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow is causing some tidal piling to occur across the region. As a result, back bays are currently seeing some spotty minor coastal flooding. Back bays may be slow to drain going forwards; some minor coastal flooding during the next two high tide cycles remains possible, particularly for back bays.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ450- 451.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ452>454.

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Beesleys Point
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Mon -- 01:13 AM EST     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:11 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:17 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Beesleys Point, New Jersey, Tide feet

Dock Thorofare
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Mon -- 01:11 AM EST     3.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:26 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:09 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:44 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dock Thorofare, Risley Channel, New Jersey, Tide feet

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