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ANZ452 Coastal Waters From Little Egg Inlet To Great Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1003 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale watch in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell around 2 ft at 4 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 to 3 ft at 4 seconds.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. S swell 3 to 8 ft at 6 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft. S swell 7 to 10 ft at 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. SE swell 5 to 7 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of rain in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. SW swell 4 to 5 ft at 7 seconds.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

ANZ400 1003 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A potent cold front approaches Sunday and crosses through Sunday night, bringing widespread rainfall and breezy conditions. High pressure begins to build in Monday and holds a firm grasp over the region to the end of the week.

FXUS61 KPHI 091451 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 951 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain offshore through tonight. A potent cold front approaches Sunday and crosses through Sunday night, bringing widespread rainfall and breezy conditions. High pressure begins to build in Monday and holds a firm grasp over the region to the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Once the fog dissipates a decent day is expected. The fog has been slow to lift owing the the weak December sun and very light winds. We have extended the Dense Fog Advisory for another hour until 11AM. After that, slow improvement into the afternoon with skies partly to mostly sunny.

Ridging in place across the region this morning will depart offshore today as a deep trough digs south across the central CONUS. Surface high pressure will be located across the western Atlantic. A surface low will lift north out of the Great Lakes with a strong cold front beginning to approach from the west late tonight.

With southerly flow and warm advection beginning to increase aloft today, temperatures should warm to near or a few degrees warmer than what we experienced on Friday. Limiting factors will be the thickening cirrus and morning stratus/fog delaying diurnal warming, so it's unlikely we'll experience over- performing temperatures. Forecast highs are mainly in the 50s.
The weak southerly gradient will result in winds near 5-10 mph today. We'll begin seeing cirrus streaming in throughout the day as well, so it won't be a particularly sunny day. Areas in Delmarva and southern New Jersey may see a bit more sun though.

For tonight, clouds will continue to increase in coverage. Some patchy fog may develop early in the night when radiational cooling is maximized, however the increasing clouds and increasing southerly winds should limit this to more sheltered areas early in the night.
The southerly gradient will tighten a bit overnight, so initially light winds should increase to near 5-10 mph. Some light rain may begin to spread into the area during the predawn hours, however much of the guidance indicates any rain should hold off until after daybreak Sunday. Lows will be mainly in the 40s, however lows will likely be reached before midnight with temperatures beginning to warm before daybreak.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The big picture remains relatively intact: A potent cold front undergoing significant frontogenesis will cross through the region Sunday night. This will bring a handful of weather impacts to the region Sunday into Monday including strong winds, heavy rain, and freshwater and tidal flooding concerns. Following frontal passage, high pressure behind the front will build in Monday as precipitation tapers off, but WNW winds will remain gusty through the afternoon.

Sunday...Our cold front will be draped across much of the Appalachian range by Sunday morning and continuing to progress eastward throughout the day. Our amplified upper level trough at this point will still be positively tilted, and therefore the baroclinic forcing will not be at its strongest at this point.
Nonetheless, precipitation will likely arrive in our western areas in the morning and will increase in magnitude while spreading eastward with time. By the afternoon, moderate, to heavy rain at times, is expected across the region. Winds will be 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 30-45 mph possible. Those higher gusts of 40- 45 mph will be felt closer to coastal areas. Strong WAA from the warm front will help raise afternoon temperatures into the 60s for most despite rainfall.

Sunday night...Cold front is expected to pass through the region overnight with the latest guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will begin moving offshore sometime after midnight. At this point, our amplified upper level trough is shifting more neutrally tilted and slightly negatively tilted, which suggests better baroclinic forcing for greater frontogenesis at this time. Additionally, latest guidance suggests a secondary coastal low developing along the front as the trough digs. As a result, we can expect precip along the frontal boundary to further intensify, with the possibility of convection. We could see a broad area of heavy rain develop along the front as a result, dropping the most intense rainfall rates during this time. Generally speaking, we can still expect a widespread 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. With this said, much of where the heaviest rainfall will occur depends heavily on the timing of the frontal boundary. With a slower frontal passage, higher rainfall amounts could stretch west of the I-95 corridor. A quicker frontal passage means west of the I-95 could see less rainfall totals with the greatest chance for the heaviest rainfall remaining east of the I-95 corridor. Regardless, the entire region remains under a Flood Watch for both urban and small stream flooding. Southerly winds could surge slightly as the front marches east, though the strongest winds will likely remain confined to the coast, up to around 40-45 mph, just shy of wind advisory criteria for the time being. High winds will contribute to growing coastal flooding concerns as well as proximity of the event to the new moon on December 12th. See coastal flooding section below.

Expect a sharp drop off in temperatures behind the cold front with mid 30s to low 40s by daybreak.

Monday...Some precipitation will linger across the area during the first half of the day as colder WNW flow takes over the region. Our more western areas (primarily Poconos, Lehigh Valley and Sussex County NJ) may see some snow mixed with rain before the system fully exits the region by the afternoon. Otherwise, most locations will see some tapering rain in the morning. At this point, the upper level trough will become fully negatively tilted, inducing rapid cyclogenisis for the developing coastal low along the frontal boundary as it reaches the southern New England coast. With strong high pressure building in from the southwest and a deepening coastal low to the northeast, pressure gradients will tighten during the day Monday, resulting in a strong surge of WNW flow across the region.
Winds during the day Monday will likely gust 30-40 mph across inland locations as well as along the shore. Temperatures will not warm much as a result with 40s across much of the region and mid 30s for the Poconos.

Monday night...High pressure will gain a stronger foothold across the region allowing clouds to break overnight and winds to relax to around 10-15 mph with a few gusts still reaching 20 mph.
Temperatures will be much colder with overnight lows dropping into the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Latest ensemble and deterministic model guidance indicates the long term will be dominated by surface high pressure. Given almost no divergence among guidance for this situation and the overall synoptic pattern, forecaster confidence in the forecast is high.

Overall, with surface high pressure in control expect a quiet long term weather wise. Precipitation during the term is not expected; no PoPs are included in the forecast. Temperatures will likely run right around normal through the term.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Today...Fog and low stratus should dissipate between 15-17Z or so, then VFR. SCT to BKN high clouds. Winds becoming southerly near 5 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...Initially VFR with increasing coverage and lowering clouds. MVFR to IFR ceilings developing near and northwest of I-95 around 06Z. South to southeast winds near 5 kts or less early, increasing toward 5-10 kts after 06Z. LLWS developing by 06Z with 2kft winds increasing to near 40 kts from the south to southwest. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Sunday...Sub-VFR. RA with RA+ possible at times. S winds increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night...Sub-VFR. RA/+RA. S winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots will veer westerly after strong cold frontal passage. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings lingering in the morning will give way to mainly VFR conditions by the afternoon. W/NW winds 20-25 knots with frequent gusts of 30-40 knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. W/SW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. W/NW winds around 10 knots. High confidence.

MARINE
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Southerly winds near 10-15 kts. Seas 2-3 feet. Some fog possible in upper Delaware Bay this morning, otherwise fair weather.

Outlook...

Sunday...Gales with seas building up to 7-9 feet. Strong southerly winds with gusts up to 40 kts. Gale Watch is in effect.

Sunday night...Gales. Storm force wind gusts possible. Strong southerly winds with gusts up to 40 kts will turn sharply WNW behind a strong frontal passage. Seas 8-12 feet. Gale Watch is in effect.

Monday...Gales continue. Storm force wind gusts possible. Strong WNW winds with gusts 40-45 kts will drop to 25 kts at night. Seas around 10 feet will diminish with time to 7-9 feet at night. Gale Watch is in effect.

Tuesday...SCA criteria possible; seas may linger around 5 feet.

Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.

HYDROLOGY
After collaborating with surrounding offices, the MARFC, and WPC, we've decided to issue a Flood Watch Sunday afternoon through the day on Monday. Yes, we're talking about a 5th and 6th period Watch, but confidence is ramping up that the region will see rainfall between 2 and 3 inches.

Putting things into perspective, this isn't going to be Ida or an event with vast widespread impacts, but it could still be an event that causes a variety of flooding types.

Here's how we see it playing out using the current QPF. Poor drainage, urban, small stream, and even isolated flash flooding will commence later on Sunday. It's to our benefit that the ground is nowhere near frozen, but runoff still becomes more efficient this time of year when everything that grows becomes dormant. Runoff will make it to the smaller creeks and streams Sunday night and then to our rivers beginning on Monday. Portions of the mainstem Passaic might not flood until Tuesday.

The mainstem Delaware is not expected to reach Flood Stage at any forecast point. As mentioned, a point or two on the Passaic could flood on Tuesday. The mainstem Raritan is not forecast to flood at this time, although Action Stage is possible. Current simulations do not have any of the mainstem Schuylkill flooding, but with more rain modeled across PA vs. NJ, I would continue to monitor. So outside of our mainstems, we'll need to watch our forecast points across SE PA, and points N and W of the mainstem Passaic. Even places like Minisink Hills and Shoemakers could see good in-bank rises if the 3 inches of rainfall comes to fruition across the southern Poconos.

So with the possibility of poor drainage, urban, small stream, flash, river flooding, and flooding along the back bays (due to poor drainage), we decided to issue a Flood Watch for the entire HSA. We want to get the message out before everyone leaves for the day and goes home to relax a bit this weekend.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for PAZ070-071- 101-102-104.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NJZ016>019- 021-022-027.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for DEZ001-002.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for MDZ012-015.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ430.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ANZ430-431.
Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for ANZ450>455.

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River Bend Marina
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Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:44 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
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River Bend Marina, Great Egg Harbor River, New Jersey, Tide feet

Beesleys Point
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Sat -- 03:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:14 AM EST     3.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Beesleys Point, New Jersey, Tide feet

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