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FXUS65 KGJT 091226 AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 526 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will continue through the morning over the northern and central Colorado mountains with little additional accumulation.

- Much below normal temperatures expected today and Sunday.

- Quiet weather returns through mid-next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 510 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Light snow will continue through the morning periodically with little additional accumulation expected as snow rates have lessened considerably. Therefore, will let the Winter Weather Advisory for the northern Colorado mountains, including the Park Range and Flattops, expire at 5 am MST this morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 156 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Light snow showers are lingering in northwest flow across portions of the northern and central Colorado mountains and adjacent high valleys early this morning. Snow rates have lessened considerably and not expecting much additional accumulation with maybe another inch or two over the northern mountains. Light snow showers will continue through the morning, fairly scattered in coverage before focus shifts over the spine of the northern divide by this afternoon. Conditions will improve and snow will quickly wane this afternoon as drier northerly flow advects in behind this departing trough whose center will be over the upper midwest with the positively tilted base dragging southward through New Mexico and Texas.
Temperatures today will be much colder than previous days with highs around 5 to 10 degrees below normal on average. Even colder temps will be evident in the mountain areas and favored cold pools, where highs will be 15 to 20 degrees below normal.
Expect plenty of sunshine later this afternoon as skies clear from the west with the dry air moving in. The clearing skies should lead to efficient radiational cooling tonight as lows drop to 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the cold pools seeing lows around 15 degrees below normal. Many lower valleys will be well into the teens and single digits with below zero readings in the higher valleys and favored cold pools seeing negative teens.

For Sunday, a ridge of high pressure tries to build to our southwest but an active Pacific moisture stream will keep high clouds in the picture in northwest flow with some weak orographics generating some light snow for the Park Range Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will moderate somewhat but still be around 5 degrees below normal for highs on Sunday.
Mostly dry conditions will be evident Sunday with exception of the higher peaks of the Park Range across northwest Colorado.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 156 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Broad northwesterly flow will remain over the CWA at the start of the long term period which will provide orographic lift for the northern mountains especially the Park Range. The remnants of an AR into the PacNW will provide the moisture with the end result being an inch or two of new snow by Monday morning. Surrounding areas may see a few snow showers but that looks to be about it. Looking ahead to Tuesday, a shortwave will be dropping down from the PacNW and as it does, a jet streak will round the base of the wave and will be strong enough to cause it to close off and become a closed low.
Guidance is in good agreement that this will occur Tuesday afternoon heading into Tuesday night. The EC wants to bring some very light QPF (< .1 inch) to the central mountains as this process occurs while the GFS keeps us completely dry. The NBM is giving the nod to the GFS as it also remains dry. By Wednesday morning, the low will be just about centered over the Four Corners with both ensembles and clusters in fairly good agreement. Differences then pop up as one model drops the low to our south while others keep it fairly stationary through noon Thursday before it moves eastward to the Plains. One thing they do agree on is tapping into moisture from NM and TX and bringing it up into the San Juans. The NBM is on board with this solution and is forecasting 1 to 4 inches of snow for the San Juans, little elsewhere, from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. After that, not much confidence in model solutions with one bringing ridging and another a shortwave from the north and some precip. Will wait and see how that plays out. Outside of those areas possibly seeing some precip, we'll see times of clouds (mostly high based) and sun through the long term period with highs running around seasonal values. Cloud cover overnight may moderate lows somewhat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 525 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Scattered light snow showers will continue across northern and central sections of the forecast area through the morning hours with MVFR to IFR conditions due to low VIS and CIGS, including KHDN, KASE and KTEX. Conditions will improve this afternoon as drier air moves in, skies clear and CIGS lift. Clear skies expected by this evening and overnight with VFR conditions.

GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CO...None.
UT...None.

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