Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cherry Creek, CO

DISCUSSION /Through Friday/
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Early afternoon convection has been a bit more feisty than originally anticipated. The latest SPC Mesoanalysis shows just enough of a favorable combination of CAPE (>1000 SBCAPE) and shear (effective layer shear ~30kt) that's led to a few stronger updrafts on the west metro, southern Foothills, and Palmer Divide.
The environment is marginally more favorable along and east of I-25, so it appears reasonable to expect a gradual increase in the severe threat over the next few hours as storms push off to the east. ACARS data and KFTG VAD show largely straight line hodographs, suggesting that multicell convection and splitting supercells will be the predominant storm modes through the afternoon and evening hours as activity shifts into the eastern plains.

A prolonged period of elevated to critical fire weather conditions is expected this weekend into next week. As a large trough stalls across the northwestern CONUS, strengthening dry, mid-level flow will lead to warm and windy conditions, especially across the higher elevations. Temperatures across the plains are likely to reach the 90s both Saturday and Sunday, with mid-90s possible across the Denver metro.

The overall pattern is not expected to change significantly next week, with a persistent trough across the northwestern CONUS and a large ridge firmly anchored near the Ohio Valley. That will leave Colorado in a mostly dry pattern with south/southwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave or two rippling through the trough to our northwest, we may see a weak cold front or two attempt to work into the region. However, the model consensus strongly favors above normal temperatures and dry conditions continuing through the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Winds are light and variable winds over the Denver metro area at this time, and high- res model guidance is in agreement that winds will shift to the SE- SSE this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows increasing cumulus over the high terrain as well as developing showers in the vicinity of KAPA. The PROB30 is on track for scattered showers between 20Z and 00Z, and there will be enough instability (500-900 J/kg CAPE) for a few lightning strikes to accompany these showers, which is why we have opted to include -TSRA for all three airports. However, today's shower threat appears to be a more typical summer afternoon pattern, with higher cloud bases and gusty outflows (30-35KT) as the primary impact.

Stronger than usual (15-20KT) southerly drainage winds will be in place by 06Z tonight, although KBJC is more likely to remain light and variable through the night. Moderately strong southwesterly winds aloft will mix down to the surface starting at 15Z-16Z Saturday morning, and these winds will persist through at least sunset, gusting to 25-30KT at times. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear and VFR is expected through the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions remain likely across all of the high country on Saturday. A much warmer and drier airmass moves into the region during the day, with winds also strengthening considerably across the higher elevations. Relative humidity is expected to fall to around 10-15% during the afternoon with wind gusts of 35-50 mph possible.

The warm, dry, and windy conditions will continue on Sunday across much of the same area. There may be some very modest improvement to minimum humidity values across the northern mountains, but critical fire weather conditions are still likely to continue. The pattern is not expected to change significantly next week, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible each day.

There were two changes of note with this afternoon's forecast package. First, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for Sunday across much of the high country. Second, the southern Foothills fire weather zone was added into Saturday's Red Flag Warning and Sunday's watch after some additional coordination with fuels experts. While the northern half of the zone has seen significant rainfall over the past few days, the southern half of the zone remains very susceptible.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday night for COZ211>214-216>218.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for COZ211>214-216-218.