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FXUS65 KREV 112145 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 145 PM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS

Seasonably cool and dry conditions will prevail through the week with slight chance of showers near the Oregon border. Gusty winds are expected along the Sierra crest Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Chances of showers increase Sunday and into the following week.

DISCUSSION

Looking out the office window, lingering valley haze maintains murky skies across the Truckee Meadows, owing to the presence of a stout temperature inversion. This will be a common theme through much of the week as light winds limit vertical mixing. The weather will be rather monotonous this week largely featuring dry conditions, seasonably cool temperatures, and urban valley haze. To put this in perspective, the best chance of showers over the week will only amount to 10-15% through Tuesday morning and is confined to extreme northern Washoe County near the Oregon border. All other others have a sub-10% chance of precipitation through Saturday. In the wake of an upper trough passage, gusty east to northeast winds of 30-40 mph will develop along the Sierra crest between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning before subsiding.

The next notable opportunity for rain/snow begins Sunday and continues into early next week as a series of Pacific shortwaves propagate through the region. However, ensemble guidance suggests that these storms will be rather weak, instilling very little confidence in the Sierra and western Nevada receiving heavy rain and snowfall. Looking way down the road, ensemble clusters hint at a more favorable synoptic pattern for widespread precipitation, though at this range it's difficult to say anything with much certainty so stay tuned!

-Salas

AVIATION

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail amid light surface winds. A couple concerns to address will be the potential for FZFG at KTRK/KTVL Tuesday morning (10-16Z) and reduced slantwise visibilities due to urban valley haze each day this week.

-Salas

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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