.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Today...

An upper ridge along with surface high pressure will remain in control of the weather across central Indiana today. This will keep dry and seasonable conditions around, with highs in the middle and upper 80s across most of central Indiana.

Upper level moisture will increase during the day, bringing cirrus into the area. Some elevated smoke will remain, and a few cumulus may pop up as well. Overall, the day will be partly cloudy.

Tonight...

As the upper ridge slides off to the east, an upper trough will approach from the west. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will bring in mid level cloud cover to central Indiana.

Integrated vapor transport progs show most of the moisture being transported into Illinois through 12Z Sunday, but far west/southwest portions of the area will be on the edge of this. Lingering influence from surface high pressure will keep the eastern two- thirds of the area drier.

Isentropic lift ahead of the upper trough will work with the available moisture to produce a few showers across the portions of the west and southwest forecast area. Will go low PoPs there late tonight.

Clouds will help keep temperatures warmer than previous nights, with lows in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Long term guidance has shifted slightly, with a further south and weaker upper level ridge early in the period before the ridge pushes back west and amplifies late in the week. The upshot of this is that already fairly omnipresent convective chances this week are increased somewhat, particularly early in the week, as multiple upper level disturbances rounding the upper level ridge are likely to impinge upon the area, providing multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

Chances decrease a bit later in the week, at least partially as a result of greater model spread and uncertainty with respect to the influences of prior rounds of convection on the later mesoscale environmental setups.

Precipitable water values frequently at or in excess of 1.7-2.0" this week are expected, along with seasonably high wet bulb zero heights, suggesting high precipitation efficiency and strong rainfall rates with any convection, and thus hydrologic concerns will be top of mind this week.

One or more rounds of severe storms will be possible as well through the work week, though given the instability/cold pool driven nature of this convection, predictability expectedly wanes fairly quickly with time, though experimental machine learning guidance continues to suggest broad areas of at least low severe threat daily through the week. Damaging winds would be the primary concern with convection this week.

Temperatures are generally expected to warm from near to slightly below normal to near to slightly above normal by mid week, though NBM spread is significant, likely owing to the convective uncertainty, which could present a major failure mode to hotter high temperature forecasts as the week wears on.

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Impacts: None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Mainly high clouds will move across the area at times into this evening. Can't rule out a few cumulus popping up as well during the daylight hours.

A mid cloud ceiling will arrive after 06Z. Isolated showers will be near KHUF by the end of the period, but coverage is too low to mention that far out.

Winds will remain mainly less than 10kt and gradually become southeast.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.