Indianapolis, IN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indianapolis, IN

June 23, 2024 8:07 PM EDT (00:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 9:18 PM
Moonrise 10:18 PM   Moonset 6:29 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indianapolis, IN
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Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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FXUS63 KIND 232325 AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Tuesday likely to be warmest day of the week.
- More thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with one or more rounds of strong to severe storms possible, though uncertain.
- A brief respite from heat and humidity late in the week.

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There is a pretty strong dry/subsident signal in 7.3 micron water vapor satellite imagery in the wake departing shortwave trough. The synoptic-scale pattern has caused the cold front to lag though, and a fairly thick stratus layer and shallow convective showers are now exiting the region. The front will clear the state later today, and behind it only modest drying is present with cumulus/stratocumulus gradually thinning. Mixing and momentum transfer has resulted in wind gusts to around 25 mph, and these should subside early this evening.

Part of the reason the cold front is lagging is the trend toward a more amplified flow pattern aloft with somewhat short wavelength and another upstream shortwave perturbation evident now in water vapor over northern Minnesota. The front is making progress though and should clear the state later today. A drier cP air mass will arrive tomorrow with slightly cooler temperatures and noticeably lower humidity. The MSLP pattern will favor light winds as surface ridging is centered over Indiana. Conditions should be pleasant with temperatures near climo in the mid-80s for highs.

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Continued warmth is expected throughout much of the long term forecast, with at least a day or two of highs back in the 90s appearing likely Tuesday and perhaps Friday. The saving grace will be that some relief from the recent stifling humidity is expected late in the work week.

Additionally, a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms are expected, with some potential for organized severe thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday, though uncertainty remains significant given guidance discrepancies and daily dependencies of convection on the influences of prior days' activity.

Some dying convection may make its way into our northwest around daybreak on Tuesday into Tuesday morning, and some low chances will be necessary then. This activity could have an impact upon our chances of reaching into the 90s, though it appears a lull between waves of storms will allow for decent insolation during much of the day.

Additional thunderstorm activity should develop ahead of the front to our northwest during the day into the evening on Tuesday, which may then make its way into central Indiana with time. Very strong instability will likely be in place, with at least modest deep layer shear, though cold pool organization/thermodynamics should largely drive the activity and any attendant severe threat, which would be primarily damaging winds.

Reintensification or redevelopment of strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday along the front or boundaries from prior convection, though degree of destabilization is more in question given the impacts of this prior activity on insolation and low level moisture advection. The more likely area for a severe threat Wednesday may be across our southeast or further southeast out of the area as time goes on.

Overall, late Tuesday into Wednesday will merit close monitoring for one or two windows of severe threat, primarily due to damaging wind potential, along with some heavy rain/localized flooding threat given fairly significant precipitable water values. Experimental machine learning guidance continues to support this potential.

The latter portion of the work week will offer some relief in the form of quiet weather, slightly lower temps, and significantly lower dewpoints as high pressure traverses the region, though this may be short-lived as guidance indicates potential for the southwestern ridge to push back eastward and additional convective potential along the periphery and ahead of another boundary as we get into next weekend, though model differences are significant with respect to ridge amplitude and location, and thus relatively modest chances remain the forecast. Another welcome respite from the humidity may come again early in the first week of July as another surface high follows this next boundary as well.

Moderated NBM numbers a bit at times, especially on the warmest forecast days, both due to NBM biases and potential convective influences which may prevent reaching warmest numbers.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Impacts: - Occasional gusts to 15-20KT through 02Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue to dominate into Monday evening.
Wind gusts exceeding 20KT at KIND as of 23Z will diminish through sundown. Broad yet weak surface high pressure, approaching from the Mississippi Valley, will promote light and at time variable winds tonight, from generally north-northwesterly directions.
Diurnal heating Monday will only return a modest increase in NNW flow, with sustained winds expected to stay under 7KT through the period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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