NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Sfc high pressure centered to the NE of the region will continue to slowly drift away from the OH Vly through the near term period. This being said, LL return flow won't really become fully established locally until late tonight, so the unusually dry airmass will remain parked across the area until such point that the light southerly flow begins to advect it away from the OH Vly Sunday morning. This will translate to abundant sunshine through the day today, with just a few cirrus from time to time.

Temps tonight will dip into the upper 50s, with some mid 50s likely in rural/sheltered areas by daybreak. With dry LL air still in place, the temp rebound will be swift and substantial into this afternoon as temps nudge into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees as the airmass begins to subtly moderate. Diurnal swings will be on the order of about 30 degrees today -- something that's not too common for this time of the year.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Tranquil conditions continue tonight... although a weather pattern shift will be well underway as the aforementioned sfc high continues to drift further away from the region. On the backside, LL flow will become increasingly southerly once again into Sunday morning. This will allow for a rather abrupt and aggressive return of higher dewpoints, which will move into the Tri-State and SE IN/N KY by early afternoon.

But before we talk about the return of rain/storm chances Sunday afternoon, mid/high cloud cover will already be on the increase across the W/SW tonight. Lows tonight will dip into the lower to mid 60s area-wide, with some upper 60s possible in parts of N KY and SE IN where cloud cover will be thickest into the predawn hours Sunday.

After daybreak Sunday, robust moisture advection will be underway, initially to our SW, before this richer LL moisture quickly spreads to the N into the local area by early afternoon.
The dewpoint rise in the Tri-State from late Sunday morning into mid afternoon will be somewhat abrupt... jumping perhaps 12-15 degrees (from the upper 50s to lower 70s) in just a few hours from 15z to 21z. And corresponding with this jump in LL moisture content will be the progression of a midlevel S/W N through the mid MS Rvr Vly, with enough forcing amidst the increasingly unstable environment to promote some ISO/SCT convection in N KY before coverage increases late in the day from the SW. SCT to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected for the SW 1/3 or so of the ILN FA toward sunset Sunday evening, with drier air hanging on as best it can in central OH... keeping the NE 2/3 of the area mainly dry through the short term period. As such, there will be quite a gradient in high temps on Sunday as the SW remains more draped in cloud cover/pcpn chances (especially late afternoon) with highs ranging from the lower 80s near the Tri-State to the lower 90s in the clearer/pcpn-free locales in central OH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mid-level ridge continues to break down Sunday night as height falls occur ahead of the upstream trough. Expect ongoing showers, downpours, to continue into the evening hours even as daytime heating decreases. Abundant moisture and broad-scale ascent associated with the trough suggest the potential for locally heavy rainfall overnight into Monday morning. There is still some question as to which locations would have the best chance for observing this so will exclude mention in the HWO for now, especially with locations observing moderate to severe drought.

Additional shortwave energy will move through the trough Monday afternoon with diurnally driven activity the main focus. Deep moisture lingers into the evening and overnight, so will need to be mindful for the potential of locally heavy rainfall once again.

The period Tuesday through Thursday is a bit different as the region sits within the northwesterly flow of the trough slowly moving eastward through the Great Lakes. An EML supplies steeper mid-level lapse rates, opening up opportunities for more abundant CAPE across the lower Midwest. Each one of these days presents the scenario where organized convection could evolve into the area, over the area, or west of the area... These days would also provide the best chance for severe weather, however given the lower confidence, will maintain low probability wording in the HWO.

On Friday, another trough is expected to exit the northern Plains, moving southward toward the lower Midwest. In the least, this keeps the area within a favorable area for additional showers and thunderstorms. While the EML breaks down later in the week, can't completely rule out another opportunity for severe weather to close the work week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will be maintained through the period area-wide.
And aside from some cirrus from time-to-time, mainly across southern parts of the area, clear skies will prevail as well until better mid/high level moisture streams in from the SW toward/beyond 12z Sunday. Increasing cloud cover is expected toward the end of the KCVG 30-hr TAF.

Light NE flow around 5kts will become more easterly toward the end of the period. Winds become more southerly by 18z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.