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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Park, PA

February 17, 2025 2:25 PM EST (19:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:08 AM   Sunset 5:59 PM
Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 9:16 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Park , PA
   
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Area Discussion for Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 171800 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

SYNOPSIS
Snow and blowing snow continues for some this morning, with some gusts up to 25 to 35mph lingering today. Wind chills between 5 and 20 below are expected tonight. Below average temperatures continue this week with additional snow potential Wednesday into Thursday. A "warmup" is favored by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Blizzard conditions linger in the high terrain through midday.
- Wind gusts of up to 25mph to 35mph expected today.
- Wind chills of -5 to -20 overnight; a cold weather advisory is in effect for portions of the area.
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Snow and blowing snow continues for portions of the area through midday. The Winter Weather Advisory for the low land areas will expire at 15Z. As of right now, there appears to be enough instability for the bands to continue through the mid morning hours. With the axis of the trough exiting, expect the snow to start to slow down in the next couple of hours. Drier air continues to filter into the area as the shallow moisture still available will finally dry out by the afternoon.

On to the ridges. There is high confidence in maintained wind gusts throughout the day due to continued cold advection enforcing adiabatic profiles in a strong gradient between the low and encroaching high. There is nearly an 80% to 100% chance the max gusts for exposed hilltops exceeds 30mph, with a 30% chance of exceeding 40mph. This increases to 100% and 70% respectively for high terrain. While these are max gusts, is is forecast the lowlands will gust from 25mph to 35mph for the most part, while the ridges may be up to 45mph. Wind will combine with snow on the ground to continue to allow for blowing snow hazards, particularly for the ridges. With additional snow chances and blowing snow chances, the blizzard warning for the high terrain remains through 20Z.

Into tonight, winds are expected to relax with the strongest winds above the mixed layer, but 15mph to 25mph still seems reasonable. Combined with the cold temperatures, this will generate wind chill hazards. A cold weather advisory has been hoisted accordingly in areas with a >50% chance of -10F "feels- like" values or below. Forest and Venango were left out due to their lower (-15F) criteria. Lows are forecast in the single digits for most.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and cold Tuesday.
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Tuesday appears to be likely the coldest day of the week, with a roughly >50% chance of a max temperature below 20F north of I-70. For reference, this is nearly 20F below normal for this time of year. Zonal flow under a strong upper jet should keep precipitation chances >10%.

Tuesday night, lows return to the low 10s and single digits, but wind is much less likely surface high pressure overhead. This would keep wind chill concerns a bit lower than the night prior, but there is still roughly a 25% chance of hitting cold weather advisory criteria for parts of the I-80 corridor and the high terrain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow chances Wednesday into Thursday - Higher chances of dry weather and "warming" temperatures into the weekend.
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Into Wednesday, there is surprisingly high confidence that the upper level pattern will shape up to be a closed 500mb low or elongated trough extending from the Canadian Maritimes to the northern Great Plains. The main, subtle uncertainty, is how the trough progresses. This trickles into uncertainty on Thursday in the progression speed and shape of how the trough sweeps through.
This relates to a couple facets of the forecast:

1) There is increasing confidence that the first surface low developing on the initial trough dipping south, remains primarily to the south of the forecast area. Through 1am Thursday, there is only roughly a 15% chance of >1" in Pittsburgh. This increases to the south, up to a 30% to 50% chance for eastern Tucker County. The most likely timing of this snowfall at this point would be between roughly 4am and 4pm Wednesday.

2) Because of difficulty in resolving how the tough pivots through there are a couple scenarios. In the first one, the upper low rejoins the flow as a trough, progresses through rapidly, and cyclogenesis remains favored in the mid-Atlantic, south of the area. In the second scenario, the low remains or becomes closed and progresses a bit slower Thursday, allowing a bit of convergence ahead of it, and resulting in higher snow chances. Just how high? Roughly a 30% (<5%) chance of >1" (>3")
in Pittsburgh. Chances increase to the southeast, up to a 50% (10%) chance of >1" (>3") for the high terrain of West Virginia.
In either scenario, all precipitation will fall as snow.

The main impacts this week appear to likely be the continued cold, with temperatures remaining in the ballpark of 15F to 20F below normal from late Monday into early Thursday. The is high confidence in ridging into the weekend, but the main uncertainty is how strong embedded troughing may be, which will correlate to just how "warm" things get. We don't have a >50% chance of breaking normal until Monday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Steepened low level lapse rates to near dry adiabatic with cold advection at the 850 mb level has resulted in streets of cu development this afternoon. Cloud bases are hovering right around the 3kft mark and some drier air intrusion from the southwest has scattered the CIGs out some. This trend is likely to be the case through the majority of the TAF period as remnant moisture traps below a sinking subsidence inversion on the periphery of high pressure. As such, conditions are likely to bounce around MVFR/VFR at all sites through most of tonight save ZZV where less cu development lends higher confidence prevailing VFR.

Wind gusts up to 35 knots are expected to continue through the daytime hours today with a strong pressure gradient and mixing heights tapping into the core of a 35-45 knot low level jet. As subsidence lowers the mixing heights and the jet gradually weakens through tonight, gusts will lessen.

MVFR probs wane overnight tonight after ~09z with another push of drier low-level air and VFR probs jump to 70-80% through daybreak Tuesday. Some uncertainty then arises with how much residual boundary layer moisture is left and the height at which diurnally-driven cloud bases sit. HRRR probs jump back up to 40-60% for MVFR CIGs after 16z and the cu rule suggests BKN development with hi res sounding CCLs hovering between 2.5-3kft, so have opted to carry high-end MVFR CIGs for the daytime hours.
Gusts will be much less in the 10-15 mph range.

Outlook...
By Wednesday, region-wide restrictions are expected to return as another storm impacts the region. The best chance for snow will fall south of the Mason-Dixon line and recent trends continue to shift farther and farther south. Drier weather is then favored to return to close out the week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ014>016-022-074-076>078.
Blizzard Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ074-076.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ078.
OH...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ512-514.
Blizzard Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ512>514.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ510-511.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA 5 sm32 minW 15G2410 smMostly Cloudy23°F9°F53%30.06
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA 15 sm34 minW 15G2610 smPartly Cloudy25°F7°F46%30.08

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Pittsburgh, PA,





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