Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bethel Park, PA
March 29, 2024 2:44 AM EDT (06:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:06 AM Sunset 7:43 PM Moonrise 11:29 PM Moonset 7:59 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 290540 AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will bring seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather through Friday. A series of low pressure systems are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday; hazardous weather may develop.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A weak disturbance may produce light precipitation to the south of Pittsburgh overnight.
- Seasonable temperatures are forecast.
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Update...
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly trends based on the latest observations and near term model data. Precipitation associated with an approaching shortwave has been light, according to recent surface obs. Upstream 00Z soundings show little moisture available, with most locations that have reported rain only seeing a trace.
Previous discussion...
A shortwave traveling through a crossing upper trough axis tonight will likely generate scattered light precipitation to the south of Pittsburgh overnight, with better chances along west-facing slopes due to upslope flow. Given thermal profiles and limited moisture mostly below the DGZ, precipitation should mainly fall as light rain. In the higher elevations, thermal profiles suggest a dusting of light snow may be possible.
Towards morning, inversion heights/moisture may drop enough to support spotty freezing rain in eastern Tucker County, with minimal impact foreseen. Any wintry accumulation (rain or snow)
will end Friday morning.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry Friday save for the WV ridges with early wintry mix possible.
- Wind Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker County Friday.
- Widespread rain showers return Saturday.
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Shortwave troughing exits Friday morning as heights rise, albeit briefly, and dry weather returns to close the week save for the West Virginia ridges where upslope flow acting on a moist, conditionally unstable boundary layer will likely support low clouds and some light precipitation into the late morning. Ensemble probabilities lean toward snow as the primarily precip type for the morning hours, though wouldn't entirely rule out a brief mix with some rain or freezing rain depending on surface temperatures as forecast soundings show the depth of the moisture cutting off below -10C. Spread in ensemble temperature is small, but hovering right around the freezing mark. Any impacts would most likely be confined to elevated surfaces, bridges/overpasses given warm antecedent conditions. Most likely end time of precip is around 10-11am as dry air finally wins out.
The other note for the West Virginia ridges will be the potential for high wind gusts in eastern Tucker County on Friday.
As flow turns more westerly, models continue to show a 55-60 kt mountain wave at 850 mb just east of Tucker County Friday morning into the evening. NBM probabilities for Advisory criteria (>46 mph gusts) continue to sit around 75-95% in eastern Tucker. Strongest gusts should remain downstream given that this is a northwesterly flow event, but expect the ridges to get quite windy with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely at the Dolly Sods Mesonet site. For these reasons, have issued a Wind Advisory for eastern Tucker County from 4am-8pm Friday.
Otherwise, it will be a seasonable day with plenty of sun under transient high pressure and warm advection driving high temperatures into the mid 50s (60-70% chance southeast Ohio tops 60 degrees).
The upper ridge quickly flattens on Saturday as the first in a series of shortwaves slide in from the west. A warm front lifts through on Saturday and resultant warm advection drive rain showers will arrive early in the morning continuing through the day as the cold front follows quickly behind it and sinks through Saturday night. Rainfall amounts for this batch look to be contained to half an inch or less, though a deeper trough could push them closer to 0.6-0.7".
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A series of weak low pressure systems will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the period.
- Probabilities increasing for rainfall totals Saturday to Wednesday greater than 2", highest from Morgantown to Tucker County WV.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The aforementioned cold front then stalls just to our south and keeps low chance precipitation primarily south of I-70 into early Sunday morning. Uncertainty remains on how far south it stalls with some ensemble solutions still holding rain chances up to Pittsburgh, so will maintain slight chance mention further north until better agreement comes in.
The front then lifts back north again Sunday night as warm advection in southerly flow renews. Widespread rain again returns as low and mid level flow will parallel the east-west oriented boundary as it sits across our area into Monday. Rich moisture arrives with PWAT values nearing 1.1" pushing the daily max climatological value.
Another deeper upper wave ejects out of the Plains late Monday as low pressure forms and plagues the area through mid-week.
Uncertainty comes into play with the timing and strength of the trough and the track of the surface low with most ensembles holding downstream ridging strong, but a lower probability chance exists that a more zonal and progressive pattern unfolds.
In terms of rainfall totals, WPC has placed our CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. Ensemble probabilities for >2" are increasing (40-70%), especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question. In addition, machine learning shows increasing severe weather risk Monday and Tuesday across the Ohio Valley. This will largely be a question of how much instability can materialize as overall dynamic parameters are sufficient to support the potential for severe weather. At this time, analogs hold the threat just to our southwest, but uncertainty as mentioned above could shift the threat further into our area.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak wave will pass south of PIT through dawn. Some light precip will be likely but VFR conditions should remain.
Probabilities of MVFR remain below 20% for ZZV and MGW. Some isolated showers are possible through dawn, though coverage is not anticipated to be large enough to justify a prevailing or tempo group.
Clear skies will prevail heading into the day. Daytime mixing will allow winds to gust up to 20kts, peaking during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period.
Outlook
VFR is expected through Friday night under high pressure.
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with crossing low pressure. VFR briefly returns Sunday under high pressure, before restrictions in showers/possible tstms return Sunday night and Monday with a warm front.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rounds of rainfall are expected beginning Saturday and continuing into the middle part of next week. Ensemble probabilities for >2" of total rainfall are increasing (40-70%)
areawide, but especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question there. This may result in areas of flooding or flash flooding, especially on Monday, when our area has been placed in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall.
Rises on area rivers from prolonged excessive rainfall are also looking increasingly possible as ensemble probabilities continue to trend higher by the beginning of next week.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ514.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will bring seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather through Friday. A series of low pressure systems are expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday; hazardous weather may develop.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A weak disturbance may produce light precipitation to the south of Pittsburgh overnight.
- Seasonable temperatures are forecast.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
Made some minor adjustments to the hourly trends based on the latest observations and near term model data. Precipitation associated with an approaching shortwave has been light, according to recent surface obs. Upstream 00Z soundings show little moisture available, with most locations that have reported rain only seeing a trace.
Previous discussion...
A shortwave traveling through a crossing upper trough axis tonight will likely generate scattered light precipitation to the south of Pittsburgh overnight, with better chances along west-facing slopes due to upslope flow. Given thermal profiles and limited moisture mostly below the DGZ, precipitation should mainly fall as light rain. In the higher elevations, thermal profiles suggest a dusting of light snow may be possible.
Towards morning, inversion heights/moisture may drop enough to support spotty freezing rain in eastern Tucker County, with minimal impact foreseen. Any wintry accumulation (rain or snow)
will end Friday morning.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry Friday save for the WV ridges with early wintry mix possible.
- Wind Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker County Friday.
- Widespread rain showers return Saturday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Shortwave troughing exits Friday morning as heights rise, albeit briefly, and dry weather returns to close the week save for the West Virginia ridges where upslope flow acting on a moist, conditionally unstable boundary layer will likely support low clouds and some light precipitation into the late morning. Ensemble probabilities lean toward snow as the primarily precip type for the morning hours, though wouldn't entirely rule out a brief mix with some rain or freezing rain depending on surface temperatures as forecast soundings show the depth of the moisture cutting off below -10C. Spread in ensemble temperature is small, but hovering right around the freezing mark. Any impacts would most likely be confined to elevated surfaces, bridges/overpasses given warm antecedent conditions. Most likely end time of precip is around 10-11am as dry air finally wins out.
The other note for the West Virginia ridges will be the potential for high wind gusts in eastern Tucker County on Friday.
As flow turns more westerly, models continue to show a 55-60 kt mountain wave at 850 mb just east of Tucker County Friday morning into the evening. NBM probabilities for Advisory criteria (>46 mph gusts) continue to sit around 75-95% in eastern Tucker. Strongest gusts should remain downstream given that this is a northwesterly flow event, but expect the ridges to get quite windy with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely at the Dolly Sods Mesonet site. For these reasons, have issued a Wind Advisory for eastern Tucker County from 4am-8pm Friday.
Otherwise, it will be a seasonable day with plenty of sun under transient high pressure and warm advection driving high temperatures into the mid 50s (60-70% chance southeast Ohio tops 60 degrees).
The upper ridge quickly flattens on Saturday as the first in a series of shortwaves slide in from the west. A warm front lifts through on Saturday and resultant warm advection drive rain showers will arrive early in the morning continuing through the day as the cold front follows quickly behind it and sinks through Saturday night. Rainfall amounts for this batch look to be contained to half an inch or less, though a deeper trough could push them closer to 0.6-0.7".
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
- A series of weak low pressure systems will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the period.
- Probabilities increasing for rainfall totals Saturday to Wednesday greater than 2", highest from Morgantown to Tucker County WV.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The aforementioned cold front then stalls just to our south and keeps low chance precipitation primarily south of I-70 into early Sunday morning. Uncertainty remains on how far south it stalls with some ensemble solutions still holding rain chances up to Pittsburgh, so will maintain slight chance mention further north until better agreement comes in.
The front then lifts back north again Sunday night as warm advection in southerly flow renews. Widespread rain again returns as low and mid level flow will parallel the east-west oriented boundary as it sits across our area into Monday. Rich moisture arrives with PWAT values nearing 1.1" pushing the daily max climatological value.
Another deeper upper wave ejects out of the Plains late Monday as low pressure forms and plagues the area through mid-week.
Uncertainty comes into play with the timing and strength of the trough and the track of the surface low with most ensembles holding downstream ridging strong, but a lower probability chance exists that a more zonal and progressive pattern unfolds.
In terms of rainfall totals, WPC has placed our CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for excessive rainfall on Monday. Ensemble probabilities for >2" are increasing (40-70%), especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question. In addition, machine learning shows increasing severe weather risk Monday and Tuesday across the Ohio Valley. This will largely be a question of how much instability can materialize as overall dynamic parameters are sufficient to support the potential for severe weather. At this time, analogs hold the threat just to our southwest, but uncertainty as mentioned above could shift the threat further into our area.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak wave will pass south of PIT through dawn. Some light precip will be likely but VFR conditions should remain.
Probabilities of MVFR remain below 20% for ZZV and MGW. Some isolated showers are possible through dawn, though coverage is not anticipated to be large enough to justify a prevailing or tempo group.
Clear skies will prevail heading into the day. Daytime mixing will allow winds to gust up to 20kts, peaking during the afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period.
Outlook
VFR is expected through Friday night under high pressure.
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with crossing low pressure. VFR briefly returns Sunday under high pressure, before restrictions in showers/possible tstms return Sunday night and Monday with a warm front.
HYDROLOGY
Widespread rounds of rainfall are expected beginning Saturday and continuing into the middle part of next week. Ensemble probabilities for >2" of total rainfall are increasing (40-70%)
areawide, but especially across West Virginia, with high end amounts of 3-4" not out of the question there. This may result in areas of flooding or flash flooding, especially on Monday, when our area has been placed in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for excessive rainfall.
Rises on area rivers from prolonged excessive rainfall are also looking increasingly possible as ensemble probabilities continue to trend higher by the beginning of next week.
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ514.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KAGC ALLEGHENY COUNTY,PA | 5 sm | 51 min | SW 07 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 43°F | 27°F | 52% | 29.98 | |
KPIT PITTSBURGH INTL,PA | 15 sm | 53 min | WSW 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 43°F | 27°F | 52% | 29.98 | |
KAFJ WASHINGTON COUNTY,PA | 20 sm | 48 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 41°F | 34°F | 75% | 30.04 |
Pittsburgh, PA,
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