Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 12:56 PM   Moonset 1:58 AM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 160933 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 533 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. Periodic showers and a few afternoon storms are then expected through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Patchy fog this morning - Dry conditions, relatively light wind, and temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
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Limited cloud coverage north and west of PGH along with light winds have allowed overnight temperatures to hit crossover values...resulting in patchy fog across those areas. After any fog burns off by mid-morning, increasing subsidence behind departing low pressure will yield dry conditions, relatively light wind, and a bump up in daytime highs a couple degrees from Wednesday's observed values.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near to above normal temperature will continue.
- Shower chances return Friday.
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A weak trough is progged to push across Michigan and SW Ontario on Friday, giving a glancing blow to the forecast area.
Instability is marginal but may be enough for a few thunderstorms, primarily west of PGH as the airmass will be moist, with MUCAPE of 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An upper trough will maintain unsettled weather through the weekend.

- Ridging should result in dry weather Monday and Tuesday with shower chances increasing by Wednesday - Temperatures near or above normal are expected ______________________________________________________________

Another weak upper trough, much like observed earlier in the week will move slowly up the Ohio Valley on Saturday with continued chances of showers and thunderstorms. Trends have been for this system to head farther south toward VA/NC on Sunday, which would result in less chance of showers for forecast area Sunday. Will leave shower chances in Sunday, but if trends continue it may end up drier Sunday than forecast.

Upper low then appears to get trapped along the NC coast, with SW-NE ridging extending into Upper Ohio River Valley with warm and dry conditions likely Monday and Tuesday.

Multi-model guidance then brings a fairly significant trough through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by midweek, which would likely result in showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Current satellite imagery indicates primarily clear skies to the north and west of the Pittsburgh metro, with some VFR low decks lingering south and east of Pittsburgh. This will have the most influence on restriction development this morning. Opted to stay lower and more confined to vis restrictions where clear skies were observed, although low stratus development could not be ruled out towards daybreak in cooling low profiles. VFR decks along the ridges may locally lower restriction chances for MGW and LBE. Dense fog remain possible in areas with the most clearing, particularly DUJ and FKL, with lower probabilities at ZZV.

Come daybreak, scattering is anticipated. Conditions are likely to return to VFR by mid-morning. Some showers may develop in the afternoon, but coverage remains too isolated and unpredictable to note for now.

Overnight, some restriction re-development is possible, but less likely than the night prior. Winds will remain light and shift to out of the south as the pressure gradient reorients.

Outlook
Periodic restrictions and showers are expected Friday through Sunday with another slow moving low pressure system.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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