Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Thornburg, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Flood potential into early Monday morning with a shortwave trough

2) Rain chances and isolated storms expected south of Pittsburgh Monday into Wednesday

3) Cooler and drier conditions expected late week

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Preliminary 00Z PIT sounding data shows saturation and warm rain processes, resulting in flash flooding in a band of locally heavy rain moves in across eastern OH into western PA. The associated shortwave trough is expected to continue tracking across the region tonight. Flash flood guidance is relatively low across the Flood Watch area, which was issued earlier.
Narrow swaths of higher QPF will likely continue into the overnight hours, before gradually diminishing after 2am.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
In the wake of a departing shortwave early Monday, the ridge axis that has remained over the Northeast in recent days is expected to weaken, allowing more zonal flow to develop. As a result, precipitation chances through Wednesday will generally remain confided to areas south of Pittsburgh. At this time, the flood threat across the region remains very low during this time period.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

By midweek, long-range guidance suggests a closed low pressure system will persist along the West Coast while a ridge strengthens over the Northern Plains. This pattern is expected to promote deep northwest flow across promotes of Great Lakes and Northeast. As a result, cooler and drier conditions are anticipated late in the week and continuing into the weekend.
The threat for hazardous weather is considered low.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Widespread IFR stratus and fog should continue to overspread the region tonight with low level moisture in place. A crossing shortwave will also bring a few showers to ports mainly south and east of PIT, before the wave exits this morning.

Expect a gradual improvement to MVFR through the morning, as mixing and dry advection begin after sunrise. A return to VFR stratocu is expected by afternoon as the mixing and dry advection lift cig heights. The lower clouds should diminish by evening as high pressure builds in from the north, though high level cirrus is expected to stream across the region on the northern side of a stalled surface boundary to our south.

Outlook...
The stalled boundary will keep periodic rain and restriction chances mainly south of a LBE-ZZV line through Wednesday. VFR returns areawide Thursday and Friday under high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.