NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure across the local region will weaken, and eventually will give way to an approaching low from the south today into tonight. Easterly flow remains, with an overall increase in low level moisture with the airmass becoming more maritime.

Rain develops and spreads across the region today into tonight.
Models vary with the magnitude of the rain and where the heaviest of rain occurs.

The mode of this looks to be overrunning stratiform, gradual lift, favoring mostly light rain. Low levels with all the easterly flow remain relatively cooler and more stable, precluding thunderstorm possibilities.

While the weather looks to be relatively quiet over the land, with cool temperatures, breezy easterly flow and mostly light rain, more active forecasts will be seen for marine and coast. SCA conditions for ocean, high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding are in the forecast. See marine and tides/coastal flooding sections for more details.

Max temperatures today used the NBM 50th percentile, which is cooler than previously forecast. Min temperatures for tonight used a combination of NBM and consensus of raw and short term guidance. This depicts slightly warmer temperatures across the coast with slightly cooler temperatures across parts of the interior compared to the previous forecast.

Manually increased POPs for tonight and especially for eastern locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For Thursday through Friday, the maritime airmass remains across the region. With low pressure slowing down offshore, rain looks to remain in the forecast for much of the region throughout this timeframe. Cool temperatures, light rain and breezy easterly winds remain. Still same active conditions for coast and marine with SCA and potential for high rips and coastal flooding. See marine and tides/coastal flooding sections for more details.

Manually increased POPs for Thursday and more so for eastern parts of the region.

Trended down with high temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday compared to previous forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
There were no significant changes made to the long term forecast.

*Key Points*

*Improving conditions should begin to occur Saturday, but especially Sunday into early next week as high pressure builds in from the northeast.

*Temperatures start out near to slightly above normal Friday into Saturday, but will trend slightly below normal Sunday into early next week.

Saturday may still see on-and-off showers due to the proximity of the low to the area. Dry weather likely returns Sunday, but some lingering clouds are possible. Coverage of clouds should diminish further as ridging begins to build aloft on Sunday. Surface high pressure over southeast Canada builds down across the northeast into early next week. The high may then shift towards the Maritimes on Tuesday as the ridge axis slides off the New England coast.

Highs will be in the 70s on Friday, warmest across the western half of the area. Temperatures begin to trend down beginning Saturday but especially Sunday into early next week as cooler air advects south in associated with the building high pressure. High temperatures Sunday into early next look to reach the upper 60s to low 70s, slightly below normal for this time of year. It may also remain breezy, especially near the coast due the pressure gradient from the building high to the northeast and departing low pressure.



AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure gradually approaches from the south today into tonight.

Mainly VFR this morning, with occasional MVFR possible around and just after daybreak, with the exception of IFR/MVFR at KGON. VFR for the rest of the TAF period, although MVFR is possible at times in showers this evening into tonight.

Light E/NE flow this morning increasing to 10-15kt this afternoon and remaining so into tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Categories have remained VFR and may remain so for the rest of the morning, however, amendments are still possible should ceilings lower to MVFR (low confidence in this occurring).

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night through Friday: Periods of rain/showers possible with with MVFR or lower conditions. NE-N gusts 20-25kt possible mainly Thursday through Friday.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers with MVFR early in the morning, then VFR. NE gusts around 25kt possible.

Sunday: VFR. NE gusts 20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions remain on the ocean through Thursday, likely lingering thereafter through Friday. Non-ocean waters will be below SCA initially today through tonight but then wind gusts are forecast to reach SCA levels Thursday and some parts of the non-ocean waters could still have SCA level gusts Thursday night and Friday as well.
Non-ocean waters with associated seas and waves are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Friday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns with showers through Friday with rainfall amounts less than an inch. Locally higher amounts possible.

There are no hydrologic concerns through the long term period.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tides are running high this week due to recent full moon. Increasing E flow will then help keep tide levels elevated through the rest of the week and potentially into the upcoming weekend.

Localized minor flooding is expected with high tide this morning across the south shore back bays and across the S Westchester and S Fairfield coast. Have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for these locations. Minor coastal flooding may become more widespread with subsequent high tide cycles Wednesday night through the end of the week. A few locations could touch or exceed moderate flooding benchmarks at the end of the week/early weekend, especially for some of the more vulnerable locations of the south shore back bays. This likely hinges on how much tidal piling occurs and the strength of the easterly flow over the region. Tide levels could be held down if the onshore flow is weaker or the wind direction ends up more northerly.

A high rip current risk for ocean beaches continues through this evening. A high rip current risk appears likely to remain Thursday into the upcoming weekend with rough seas due to increasing easterly flow.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.