Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 8:23 AM EST (13:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 1:47PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 754 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain late this morning. Rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 754 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will lift northward toward the waters this morning and move into the area this afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage Tuesday night. A large area of high pressure over the mid section of the country will then slowly build in through the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northville, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.68     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 181258 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 758 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will pass later this evening, then high pressure will build across New England overnight. A warm front will lift northward toward the area Tuesday morning and move into the area Tuesday afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage Tuesday night. A large area of high pressure over the mid section of the country will then slowly build in through the upcoming weekend. Low pressure could impact the area early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Latest HRRR and NAMNest continue to show a disorganized system with precipitation developing later this morning, and even then, it's light and in pockets. Low-level dry air seems to be the culprit for the delayed onset and with an easterly flow any wintry precip will be brief.

Chances for precipitation will slowly increase this morning, from west to east, as a warm front approaches. Precipitation will largely be in the form of rain. Locations across the northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern Connecticut may see a brief snow on the onset, or isolated pockets of freezing rain, but a quick warm up is expected for these locations. Most areas will be rain by 10 am, except extreme northwestern Orange County, which could remain snow or wintry mix until noon.

Little, if any snow accumulation is expected, with a half inch or less expected for any areas that see snow.

Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs in the 40s region-wide.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Rain continues tonight as the warm front lifts north, followed quickly by the associated cold front. Any rain should end after 5 am or so. With much of the night on a southwest flow, and plenty of clouds in the area, temperatures will continue to be above normal, with lows in the 30s region-wide, but generally above freezing for much of the forecast area.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday, with dry conditions. Decent cold advection will get underway in the late morning into the afternoon timeframe, allowing for some gusty winds to around 25 mph. Temperatures will be seasonable, in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Not much has changed in the last 24 hours heading into the upcoming weekend. Differences arise late in the period with timing of shortwave energy in both the northern and southern branches of the polar jet. Before then though, the northern branch of the polar jet will make another brief appearance across the northeast quarter of the nation.

Polar high pressure over the northern plains at the onset of the period dives south and east and into the southern Mid Atlantic and Tennessee Valley states by the weekend. At the same time, a series of lows will pass well north of area across Canada. A N-NW flow through Friday will then veer around to the W/SW over the weekend.

The coldest days of the week will be Thursday and Friday with highs generally in the 30s with lows in the teens to lower 20s. This is approaching 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Readings will climb back up into the 40s for the weekend with a warmer southwest flow. A few 50 degrees readings across the NYC metro are possible Sunday and Monday.

There is some uncertainty at the end of the forecast period as a northern branch shortwave tracks across eastern Canada and another in the southern branch emerges from the Southern Plains. The 00Z GFS is much quicker and stronger with the energy in the northern branch, sending height falls into the Northeast and a weak cold front through the area Sunday night. This in turn builds a ridge on the backside of the shortwave and impedes the progress of the southern branch feature. The ECMWF and GGEM are in better agreement with the timing of these features, slower and weaker with the northern stream, and quicker with the southern stream. The latter of which could bring some overrunning rains into the area as early as Monday or as late as Wednesday depending upon the solution. For the time, will continue with low chances for rain late Monday. Lots of time for changes in what has been mainly a progressive southern branch flow across the Lower 48 this winter.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A frontal system impacts the terminals this morning through the evening, with a cold front passing through the terminals later tonight.

MVFR conditions this morning with gradually become more widespread this afternoon with scattered showers possible. North and west of NYC a rain/snow mix is possible initially with a quick transition to all rain by the late morning. Conditions could lower to IFR in rain late this afternoon, with local areas possibly remaining MVFR. Conditions return to VFR late This evening with the rain ending.

Wind NE to E around 5 kt currently, become southeast 10-15 kt this morning. Winds will then become more southerly during the afternoon, and SW this evening. With the passage of a cold front winds become NW 10 to 15 kt with gusts 15 to 25 kt.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in IFR conditions in the late afternoon as rain intensity may be on the lighter side of the forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G15-20kt. Thursday-Saturday. VFR.

MARINE. Waves will build on a southeast flow today, with 5 to 6 ft expected on the ocean waters. Wind gusts of up to 25 kt are also forecast everywhere except the western sound and harbor. Winds will diminish somewhat as the warm front lifts north and the pressure gradient relaxes, so SCA remains in effect for eastern sound, back bays, and Peconic and Gardiner's Bays until 1 pm today. They continue on the ocean due to 5+ ft wave heights and have been extended until 6 pm Wednesday as waves will remain elevated until then.

SCA conditions may linger on the ocean into Wednesday evening, otherwise sub-SCA conditions are forecast into the weekend as a large area of high pressure builds in from the mid section of the country. NW-N winds Thursday through Friday will generally be 10 to 15 kt on the ocean and 10 kt or less across the remaining waters. Winds then veer to the SW over the weekend. Seas on the ocean will generally be less than 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts expected with only 1/3 of an inch of liquid equivalent or less expected. Thereafter, no hydrologic impacts expected through Monday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ330- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/DW NEAR TERM . JP/DW SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . DJ MARINE . DJ/DW HYDROLOGY . JP/DW EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi54 min 35°F 38°F1028.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi54 min 35°F 38°F1028.3 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 36 mi29 min E 12 G 15 37°F 1027.5 hPa28°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 38 mi54 min 41°F 40°F1029.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi54 min 35°F 42°F1029.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 48 mi94 min E 16 G 21 39°F 3 ft34°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY15 mi2.5 hrsESE 9 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F32°F76%1028.6 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi2.5 hrsE 810.00 miOvercast36°F23°F59%1028.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY19 mi2.5 hrsVar 5 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F30°F67%1028.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi2.5 hrsE 510.00 miFair32°F17°F55%1028.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N3NW7N10N7NW6W5CalmS7S6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3--NE3NE5NE5NE5E8E8E9
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SW14SW8S10SW7W9SW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmNE4N44S7SW7SW8S8SW8SW6S4S4S6S6SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:00 AM EST     1.42 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EST     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:46 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:50 PM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.31.41.30.80.1-0.6-1.1-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.700.70.910.80.2-0.5-1-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.