Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lakeside, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Lake effect snow in far NE Ohio and NW PA will move out over the lake and dissipate through sunrise, with only minor additional impacts.

2) Low-impact weather with light precipitation chances and warming temperatures today through the weekend before a bigger cooldown early next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
A very resilient band of lake effect snow continues to impact northern Ashtabula County as well as northern Crawford and Erie Counties in PA early this morning. This band is steadily drifting north and finally starting to become less organized in response to backing boundary layer flow and a lowering inversion as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. Before the band gets offshore, additional snowfall amounts could reach 1 inch since strong low-level convergence as the flow backs is helping to overcome the decreasing instability and inversion levels. The headlines remain on track to expire at 09Z since most of the snow should be offshore by then, with just light snow showers and flurries lingering through sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE #2...
An unseasonably strong mid/upper ridge will strengthen over the western CONUS and Plains through the end of the week while mid/upper longwave troughing persists across the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS. This will allow for a slow warming trend today through the end of the week, but the lingering trough over the Northeast will be reinforced by a couple of mid-level shortwaves (clipper systems), and that will keep the warmest air west and southwest of our region until a better push by the weekend.

The first shortwave and associated weak surface low will dive into the northern Great Lakes today. A warm front out ahead of it will slowly progress ENE through the area as the surface high departs offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. Warm air advection and isentropic ascent should drive a shield of light rain/snow showers. There will be alot of dry air to overcome, so not all of this will reach the ground, but decided to introduce slight chance and chance POPS over most of the area today, continuing over NW PA tonight, as this band of isentropic ascent gradually lifts through. Any precip will be low-impact, with snow amounts of a trace or less. Temperatures will also warm into the upper 30/low 40s today given the warm air advection. As the weak low lifts into Quebec Thursday, the trailing cold front will progress across the region. Moisture will continue to be very limited, but some synoptic support near the left exit of a 120+ knot H3 jet over the Upper Midwest will drive some light rain showers as high temperatures further warm into the mid/upper 40s. Again, low-impact, light precip.

A second shortwave and associated surface low will drop from the northern Great Lakes Friday through the eastern Great Lakes by early Saturday. This looks to be a stronger clipper, so better warm air advection ahead of it will boost temperatures into the upper 50s/low 60s Friday. Isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will once again drive a band of showers, but based on the track of the low, the steadiest and most organized rain will pass NE of our region, so this will again be light, low-impact precip for our area Friday and mainly confined to NE Ohio and NW PA.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the clipper's cold front Saturday, but overall milder temperatures are expected for the weekend as the mid/upper trough over the NE CONUS finally weakens enough for a piece of the warmth over the Plains to come eastward. The next chance for light, low-impact showers will come Sunday and Sunday night as a mid/upper trough over the northern Great Lakes starts to deepen again. This will push a cold front through the region. The bulk of the arctic air behind this front will deflect into the New England region early next week as broad mid/upper troughing becomes reestablished over the Great Lakes, but temperatures Monday and Tuesday will still be much colder compared to the weekend, but conditions will be dry.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR conditions will prevail today as high pressure continues to impact the area. There is a slight chance for scattered light rain showers across the area, but confidence remains low in regards to timing or impact. Not expecting the showers to be heavy enough to lower conditions, so handled showers potential with VCSH. Mid to high clouds will likely spread across the are throughout today with some MVFR ceilings sneaking into the area this evening into early tonight.

Southerly winds today of 10-12 knots are expected areawide.
Localized gusts up to 20 knots are possible along and west of I71 during the afternoon. After sunset tonight, all winds should weaken to 5-10 knots with no gusts for the remainder of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR returns Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with the next warm front.

MARINE
Conditions across Lake Erie have calmed this morning with winds of 5-15 knots being observed from the southwest. These winds today will become more southerly and increase to 10 to 15 knots, possibly touching 20 knots across portions of the western basin into Thursday. As a warm front lifts north late Thursday, winds across the lake will become less than 10 knots, maintaining a general southerly flow. These light winds will persist into Sunday before a cold front moves east Sunday afternoon and winds increase from the northwest to 15-25 knots behind it. This Sunday period may require headlines in the future and will continue to monitor it with upcoming forecasts.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.