Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantine, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 139 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

A frontal boundary will attempt to edge north somewhat across portions of central Indiana over the next 12 to 24 hours, then begin to surge further north as a weak disturbance ejects towards the NE, reaching the area later Wed into Thu with a sfc reflection passing overhead. Until this wave approaches a tight northern gradient will continue in multiple rounds of showers and even some thunderstorms favoring either side of and south of the I-70 corridor in central IN. As mentioned in the morning update, pops were trimmed southward somewhat and this trend continues into Wednesday in line with model guidance. Questions do remain as to if enough weak low level lift and low level saturation could result in pockets of drizzle once again until deeper moisture arrives. Also models seem rather aggressive on clearing cloud out, especially north despite a lack of strong subsidence or dry air below 850 mb. Have left any drizzle mention out, but did increase cloud cover. As the wave moves in Wednesday night into Thursday, rain chances will increase across the entire area with on the order of 0.25" (NW) to possibly up to 0.75" (SE) of rainfall occurring. The ground should be quite receptive to the light to moderate nature of this, with only a limited response in rivers for this round.

A lull in the rain is expected in the wake of the mid week system as an elongated trough lingers to our west with a series of disturbances ejecting from it into the Plains and western Great Lakes. This will set the stage for the front to finally push north later Thursday into Friday with much above normal temperatures arriving as well increasing moisture. Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will take shape to our south and west, with the SPC DY4 severe outlook depicting a 15% severe threat just to our west in portions of IL and southern WI for Friday afternoon and evening.
While I suspect in coming outlooks NW portions of our area could end up in a marginal risk, the timing of late Fri evening into the overnight hours along and ahead of the cold front leads to a lower risk of severe at this point.

The front will move across the area, but the overall wave will be quickly dampening as the main energy remains across the SW U.S. Some weaker disturbances may drop south into the area into early next week with small rain chances. Temperatures will "cool" back into the 50s and 60s (still well above normal).



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1225 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

A baroclinic zone with areas of high pressure to the north and waves of low pressure riding along it will be the weather-maker between today and the weekend. Surges of warm/moist air northward increase chances for rain and drizzle, however, low level dryness will cut into those chances from time to time. Low level moisture in RAP time sections continues from now until early Wed morning. Am not entirely convinced drizzle continues given waning lift this afternoon, but cannot rule it out. This plays a role in MVFR CIGs that appear to drop into IFR and potentially LIFR overnight. Aviation guidance seems to moderate CIGs Wednesday morning potentially as WAA commences, but there is some uncertainty around if those low CIGs remain or moderate. Rain probably holds off until the afternoon/evening Wed.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.