Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

- Dry and Warming Monday and Tuesday

High pressure and ridging from a omega block developing to our west will be the main driver of the weather for the next day or two. Highs today will approach 80 and highs Tuesday will be well into the 80s given 850mb temps approaching 15C. A lack of moisture will limit cloud cover as the northern stream jet remains to our north/east, and persistent Gulf moisture is progged to stay south.

- A Few Showers and Storms Possible Wednesday

Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday with a northern stream trough drives a backdoor cold front across the area. PWATs ahead of this front are marginal, but sufficient for at least a chance of precipitation. MUCAPE aoa 1000 J/kg in medium range guidance suggests thunderstorms are possible with this activity. The best signal for precipitation is just inland of Lake Michigan where a meso-low signal suggests some enhanced convergence potential.

- Dry and Cool Late Week

The post frontal airmass arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as surface ridging returns across the area. Highs are forecast to fall into the 70s as 850mb temps fall into the mid to upper single digits. The persistent omega block will keep conditions fair through the remainder of the week as the pattern will force shortwaves east of the area. Large scale subsidence, plus limited moisture, will lead to ample sunshine later this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR is expected tonight and Tuesday with a few clouds at or above 7,000 feet. Fog is unlikely tonight after a day of mixing down a drier atmosphere. Low temperatures tonight are not expected to fall below tonight's dewpoint crossover temperature. More probable fog near Lake Erie in Southeast Michigan is unlikely to reach JXN. Giving MKG some gusts for late tonight as 25-30 knots of southwest wind at 500-1000 feet will develop, and these winds above the Lake Michigan marine layer tend to spill to the ground at the MKG airport even in stable conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Analysis of the pressure and wind patterns suggests no marine hazards through at least Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon will need monitoring for an advancing high setup as the post-frontal surface high sets in and interacts with a meso-low over land.
NAMNEST/RRFS guidance suggests a potential 17-20 knot burst of wind along the lakeshore in the afternoon, which may be sufficient for a window of Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement conditions.
Otherwise, persistent surface ridging looks to keep marine conditions benign.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.