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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 933 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast early in the afternoon...then veering to the southwest late in the afternoon. Light showers. Areas of dense fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers in the evening...then a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest in the afternoon...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 040439 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1139 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023


AVIATION

Low level troughing will sustain areas of IFR based clouds, mainly from PTK northward through at least 08 or 09Z. This low level troughing will weaken during the course of the morning and will allow ceilings to be predominately MVFR after 09 or 10Z. An upper level short wave tracking across SW Lower Mi has sustained some lingering showers. This forcing will weaken during the early morning hours, allowing a gradual end to the lingering showers. Low level cyclonic flow and ample moisture trapped under a low level inversion should sustain the MVFR cloud bases well into the day Monday.

For DTW...Observational trends continue to suggest IFR ceilings will remain north of metro through the morning. Model soundings do however suggest ceilings will fluctuate across the 2k foot threshold.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight and Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION...

Main area of rainfall associated with vorticity center will be lifting gradually northeast out of the forecast area as this forecast period begins late this afternoon. Thereafter, just expect scattered rain and/or snow showers to pivot back into the area into this evening within wraparound moisture around the base of this system. Any lingering precipitation will end by around midnight with dry conditions then holding through Monday. A slightly cooler air mass will build into the area in the wake of this disturbance with highs in the upper 30s to around 40 on Monday and lows down into the 20s Monday night.

The next shortwave disturbance, a clipper system dropping southeast from southwestern Canada, has trended a bit south as compared to yesterday and now just brushes southern parts of the forecast area with light snow/flurries perhaps mixed with sprinkles from late Monday night into Tuesday. Between marginal surface temperatures and light precipitation intensity/amounts, do not expect much in the way of accumulations, if any, from this system at this point.

Upper troughing expands a bit with the passage of this clipper with cool conditions persisting into Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. At the same time, the upper pattern shifts into a rather progressive mode with this trough shifting steadily east into late week as upper ridging expands eastward into the region. This will promote highs back into the 40s Thursday and upper 40s/50s Friday and Saturday as ridging hold in place to some degree as the next major surge of shortwave energy begins to carve out a significant upper trough to the west.

There will only be a small chance of light rain/snow showers around Wednesday night as this milder air first begins to dislodge the cooler air mass in place. Otherwise, the next potential chance for significant precipitation will hold off until next weekend. This period is highly in question as models differ quite considerably on how (or even if) the main storm system within the western trough ejects into vicinity.

MARINE...

Weak low pressure tracks across the southern Great Lakes today, bringing rain to the area, with a few snow showers developing over the northern part of the lake as temperatures drop overnight.
Northeast winds of 15-20 knots back to become northwest behind the low on Monday, decreasing down to 10-15 knots. Gusts will touch 25 knots at the highest, but will similarly decrease throughout the day Monday. Waves will build to borderline Small Craft Advisory criteria overnight tonight, with occasional waves of 5-6 feet being the primary concern. An Advisory is in effect for the Outer Saginaw Bay and the nearshore areas from Port Austin to Harbor Beach. Active weather pattern then continues through the week as a series of weak systems moves across the Great Lakes. Impacts still look to be relatively minor at this time, with the primary hazard to come out of these systems being repeated chances for precipitation.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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