Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:10PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:12 PM EST (01:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 3:15PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 341 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with rain likely and a chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LCZ460 Expires:202002210915;;840896 FZUS63 KDTX 202041 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 341 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad strong high pressure system, averaging 30.80 inches, will continue its slow southeastward track across the Plains into the mid- Mississippi valley the remainder of this week. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high during this time. A low, 29.10 inches, pivoting through the Hudson Bay Friday sets up a stronger gradient over the Great Lakes region. Long fetch with southwest flow creates the possibility of low-end gale-force gusts over Outer Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron warranting a Gale Watch Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. LCZ460-210915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 202318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

AVIATION.

Extended period of clear skies will exist this taf period, as conditions remain governed by a very dry environment. Prevailing west to northwest winds late this evening will veer to southwest by Friday morning. Some increase in southwest winds expected on Friday, with diurnal mixing leading to gusty conditions for the afternoon period. Gusts 20 to 25 knots peaking mid-late afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

Prototypical late winter anticyclone setup across Southeast Michigan today with deep column static stability from roughly 2.5 to 15.0 kft agl. Many factors aligning to bring the high pressure, including negative differential cyclonic vorticity advection with exit of the trough axis, advent of deeper cold air advection, and confluent flow aloft drifting just east of Southeast Michigan. Secondary 900-800mb dry air advection is expected to combine with increasing active subsidence to dry out the column even more locally. Pwats this afternoon are forecasted to drop below 0.07 of an inch, which is nearing record territory. No tangible shot at any meaningful cloud resulted in sunny conditions. Upper level shortwave ridging aloft will push down into the central Great Lakes as anticyclonic Rossby wave break arrives. Absolute vorticity fields show strong anticyclonic gyre to rotate down through the region only adding to active subsidence. This forcing tonight will force the subsidence to aggressively work down into the 1.5 to 6.0 kft agl layer.

The anticyclonic gyre will support a deep anticyclone center from 875mb upwards of 400mb tracking directly through Southeast Michigan from 12-21Z Friday. Dry column and surface based mixing will result in another day with no cloud. Development of southwesterly return flow particularly during the afternoon hours will allow temperatures to moderate a good amount. Highs Friday are expected to be in the middle 30s some 10 degrees warmer than today.

Very quiet weather in store throughout the upcoming weekend as dry westerly flow remains in place. Forecast soundings show that given the thermodynamics it will require a significant advection event to get the column saturated any appreciably amount. Prevailing southwesterly winds will be in place which will result in continued moderation each of the days. Clouds are a primary question for temperatures this time of the year and current indications are that any frontogenetic/cloud area will remain well to the north of Southeast Michigan. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the lower to middle 40s, temperatures Sunday are expected to be in the upper 40s potentially reaching the lower 50s. These values will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Southern stream PV anomaly from the coast of California is forecasted to push eastward and arrive over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Monday or Tuesday. Current indications suggest this initial PV feature will deamplify and become sheared out by the time it arrives. Latest forecasted flow configuration suggests a very strong southern split stream jet packet moving across the Southern United States. Given the lack of phasing in the curren t model suite, the lead energy supports much of the energy remaining to the south initially.

MARINE .

High pressure over MN/IA will continue to drop south-southeast across the Plains today into this weekend. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high as it slides across the central part of the country. Winds will slowly rotate from west-northwest today to southwesterly Friday. A stronger gradient and favorable 850mb LLJ dynamics will develop as a low pivots through Hudson Bay generating stronger winds Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models today have been trending more aggressive with low-end gale-force gusts across the Outer Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron resulting from the long fetch on the bay with SW flow. A Gale Watch is in effect for the previously mentioned areas Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Winds will begin to relax some this weekend as the low moves into northeastern Quebec weakening the gradient over the Great Lakes region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ363-421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi72 min NW 4.1 G 7 22°F 1035.9 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 26 mi60 min 20°F 32°F1035 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi132 min NNW 8.9 G 11 25°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi60 min 20°F 1034.8 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW7
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G9
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G17
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G13
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1 day
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W5
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G23
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G17
W5
G11
W6
G9
NW6
G12
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G19
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G17
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G15
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G18
NW7
G14
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G15
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G12
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G16
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G9
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2 days
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E6
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G11
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G15
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G17
SE11
G15
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G15
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G22
S12
G18
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G13
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G15
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G15
SW13
G20
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G18
SW8
G13
W17
G24
W19
G28
W13
G22
W16
G21
NW9
G20
W11
G16
W14
G21
NW10
G15
W6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi19 minWNW 510.00 miFair21°F3°F45%1037 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi16 minWNW 410.00 miFair20°F5°F53%1036.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi17 minWNW 510.00 miFair20°F5°F52%1036.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi17 minNNW 410.00 miFair20°F5°F51%1035.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W7NW6NW9
G17
NW8NW11NW8N8N6NW4NW5NW5NW7NW7N9
G18
N10
G17
NW9W9NW95NW7W6NW6W5
1 day agoW10W11W9
G18
W9
G19
NW7W5W5W6NW8NW12
G21
NW10NW11
G18
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NW8NW9NW10NW10
G16
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W10W8NW8NW4W5
2 days agoE11E11
G20
E13
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E10E11SE9SE3CalmS5SW9SW12W13
G20
W10W16
G29
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G27
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W19
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W14
G30
W9
G26
W12
G22
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W10W9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.