Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:00PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:46 AM EST (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:30PMMoonset 9:11AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 325 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots early. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912132115;;276825 FZUS63 KDTX 130825 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 325 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 30.00 inches, reaches the Straits this morning. A broad region of surface low pressure, averaging 29.70 inches, will then linger over the Great Lakes this afternoon into Saturday. A strong low pressure system will track to our east on Saturday night, leading to an increased northwest gradient locally for Sunday. High pressure then returns Sunday night before another low pressure system tracks through the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. LCZ460-132115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131106 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 606 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION.

VFR conditions are expected today as cigs remain aoa 6-8kft or so as upper level disturbance lifts northeast across the area. Once this system passes, a weak frontal boundary will sag southeast through the area overnight into Saturday morning with lower MVFR to IFR cigs filtering south across the area after fropa. Winds will be light and shift from south today to north late tonight.

For DTW . Cigs should remain above 5kft into this evening with a trend to at least MVFR and quite possibly IFR overnight tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for cigs aob 5000 ft overnight tonight, high by Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

DISCUSSION .

Despite the strong/deep/persistent southwest flow in place, the airmass over southern low Michigan remains relatively dry (PW values near half an inch) as a dry cold front straddles the western Great Lakes. Both the Rap/NAM indicating minimal eastward push of the front during the day, and high temperatures aoa 40 degrees looking reasonable based of the current values and just mid/high cloud canopy, supported by Euro/MAV/MET mos guidance.

Copious amount of upper level energy/PV tracking through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will lead to amplifying trough over the southern Mississippi River Valley, with negative tilted trough axis and 6hr 500 mb height fall Center (> 100 M) tracking through the Mid Atlantic State on Saturday. Thus, rapid cyclogensis is expected to be along the east coast, with the precipitation shield/deformation likely just missing southeast Michigan (per model consensus). Still, close enough call to carry low chance pops across the far east, with the airmass probably just cold enough for snow with the wet bulbing effects in consideration.

Incoming northern stream shortwave trough/cold pool will bring a chance of snow showers/flurries Saturday night into Sunday, as 850 mb temps fall into the negative mid teens with lake enhancement potential as surface troughing/cyclonic low level northwest flow persists.

Next round of Pacific upper level energy/trough swinging through the Four Corners region on Sunday will spin up another low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains. This low looks to be tracking close to the Ohio River on Monday, presenting an opportunity for accumulating snow to impact southeast Michigan. Magnitude of the surface wave remains in question, as 00z Euro is a bit stronger and farther north compared GFS, but especially vs the flatter Canadian/Icon solutions. None-the-less, GFS ensemble members give the Euro plenty of support, and several members are even farther north and deeper. Euro indicating 3-4 g/kg of specific humidity in the 850-700 mb layer crossing the border which could support several inches with the proper mid level FGEN, even with less than ideal thermal profiles.

Longwave trough then advertised to be in place over the East Coast Wednesday-Friday, with bulk of cold air over New England. Upper level northwest confluent flow over Central Great Lakes expected to lead to quiet weather for the end of the work week.

MARINE .

Relatively compact low pressure center moves into the Straits this morning with moderate southwesterly winds persisting but gradually waning by this afternoon. Broader surface troughing ensues over the region this evening into Saturday as a strong low pressure system lifts along the east coast. This will lead to a brief period of benign marine weather owing to the diffuse pressure pattern. Winds then emerge out of the northwest on Saturday afternoon, strengthening by the evening and overnight as fresh arctic air plunges into the region. At this time, winds look to remain below gale force but may gust upwards of 30 kt by late Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure then moves into the area Sunday night, leading to more favorable conditions.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi46 min S 4.1 G 7 31°F 1018.6 hPa (-1.0)
AGCM4 26 mi52 min 32°F 38°F1018 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi46 min S 16 G 19 34°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi52 min 33°F 1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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S7
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G24
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G19
S15
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G22
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G19
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G17
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SW10
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G26
W15
G27
W14
G22
W16
G22
W12
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W8
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W6
G14
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G12
W6
G9
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G9
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NW10
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G17
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G23
NW7
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G14
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G12
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G13
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W6
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G15
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G18
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G13
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G19
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G15
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G18
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi53 minS 410.00 miFair30°F25°F82%1018.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi1.8 hrsS 510.00 miFair25°F24°F99%1018.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi51 minSSW 410.00 miFair31°F25°F81%1018.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi51 minS 810.00 miFair33°F28°F84%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S7S7S10S13
G18
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S11S10S9S8S7S5S7S6S4S5S5S4S4
1 day agoSW16
G25
SW15
G26
W14
G24
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G27
W9
G20
W14
G25
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W7W5W8W4W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3
2 days agoW6NW11W9NW11NW9
G16
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W8W6W8W6W10
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W14W8W8
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W8SW12SW8SW8
G18
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SW11SW12
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.