Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday August 13, 2020 1:51 PM EDT (17:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 3:23PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 941 Am Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy...then partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202008132015;;387849 FZUS63 KDTX 131341 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 941 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build overhead through late week, averaging 30.10 inches. Favorable boating conditions are expected through the end of the week. LCZ460-132015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 131722 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 122 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

AVIATION.

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening as the region remains under the southwestern edge of high pressure in Canada. Drier low levels will again hamper diurnal cloud formation through this evening with cirrus streaming into/across SE MI. High clouds will generally remain SCT with occasional pockets of BKN. Light easterly winds will rotate to northeasterly tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1011 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

UPDATE .

Regional satellite is showing a fair amount of high clouds streaming across srn Mi, associated with the weak mid level wave now meandering across the upper Great Lakes. Overall, there will still be a fair amount of sunshine today, albeit filtered at times through some high clouds. A forecast update will however be issued to nudge cloud cover up a bit. The high clouds will likely not be enough to cut too much into daytime insolation. This and given the morning temp trends, the current forecast highs for today in the mid/upper 80s still seem reasonable.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

DISCUSSION .

Little change in the forecast as models are in lock step on the large scale pattern heading into the weekend. The once zonal flow across the northern tier of the US is amplifying as a series of waves enter the NW Conus deepen the trough over western Canada. The steepening ridge axis will not make it to MI until Friday keeping us under confluent flow and subsidence until then. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will hold over the region while shifting its center from the central Great Lakes Wednesday up to Hudson Bay this afternoon. This will keep a light eastern flow into the area helping to keep the current dry airmass in place. PWATs will still be around 0.75 inches as surface dewpoints linger in the mid 50s to near 60 this afternoon. This will keep heat indices down once again as temps rise into the mid-upper 80s. Return of southerly flow on Friday will start to allow a little better moisture into the region but a cutoff low meandering around the Mid MS Valley into TN/KY will block the deeper gulf moisture so expecting dewpoints into the low to mid 60s through the weekend.

There is one feature in the near term to keep an eye on for the forecast today and tonight. A shortwave and associated cluster of convection is currently working across northern WI and will continue across the straits today. Though the unfavorable atmosphere will likely minimize rain chances, clouds will likely persist. The mid level feature is advertised to get cut off from the flow and stall over northern lower today. This could bring some thicker clouds into the Saginaw Valley. For now, I increased clouds over northern Lake Huron but held off over land as we see how much it can hold together in the increasingly less favorable environment.

Attention then turns toward the weekend and the return of rain chances. Not much has changed in the models which isn't necessarily a good thing because they still differ on how they manage the two main features, the aforementioned west coast trough that will eventually push across the Great Lakes Sunday and the cutoff low to our south. If the low drifts far enough north it can then feel the height falls of the trough and shift farther north. This would make for a rainy Saturday with the weak wave overhead all day. Otherwise the features will remain disconnected and the surface high will hold through Saturday keeping us dry. The trough and cold front will then sweep across lower MI late Sunday into Sunday night offering the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will overtake the region with 850mb temps dropping from the persistent mid teens this week, down into the upper single digits by Tuesday. Forecast highs are in the 70s with lows dropping into the lower 50s.

MARINE .

Dry conditions persist across the central Great Lakes as high pressure continues to build overhead. Light and variable winds will gradually back to the northeast, with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots by midday Thursday. Gusts could reach around 20 knots Thursday afternoon/evening, particularly across Saginaw Bay due to its northeasterly fetch. Overall boating conditions are expected to remain favorable through the end of the week before another potential system approaches the central Great Lakes this weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KDK UPDATE . SC DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . SS

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi51 min NNE 8 G 9.9 78°F 1020.3 hPa (-1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi51 min NNW 3.9 G 3.9 76°F1 ft1018.8 hPa
AGCM4 26 mi51 min 81°F 74°F1019.8 hPa (-0.9)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi61 min E 13 G 14 77°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi51 min 81°F 1019.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi58 minE 1010.00 miFair84°F60°F44%1019.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi55 minENE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F64°F54%1020.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi56 minE 810.00 miFair86°F50°F30%1021 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi56 minNE 810.00 miFair86°F56°F36%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE9SE5SE5SE5E6E6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N5NE5NE7NE6E10
1 day agoNW6W10NW10
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NW4W7NW9N6N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmS6E4
2 days agoS8S10SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.