Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday March 28, 2020 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:36AMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 942 Am Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain late in the morning...then light rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Rain and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Light rain likely in the morning...then a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202003282015;;198406 FZUS63 KDTX 281342 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure located across the Plains will travel northeast today, strengthening down to 29.30 inches as it centers across the Midwest tonight. This system will allow a warm front to travel across the southern Great Lakes region later this afternoon and evening, but will have little impact on surface winds as easterly flow holds. A stronger push of warmer air and eventual passage of a cold front will then veer wind direction from the east to southwest throughout Sunday morning. Sustained wind speed and gusts will quickly ramp up behind the cold front on Sunday while low pressure, 29.40 inches, exits into southern Ontario early Monday morning. LCZ460-282015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 282334 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 734 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE.

Vertically stacked, gradually occluding closed system migrating across Iowa this evening, the effective compressed upper height field driving a robust deep layer wind response within the immediate downsteam southwest flow. Southeast Michigan firmly entrenched within a prototypical early spring environment under this pattern, lodged within a very moist and stable low level easterly flow tucked beneath the resident elevated warm front. Recent surface analysis suggests limited northward migration of the surface reflection thus far, still fixated across north-central IN as of 23z. In the near term, some pockets of dense fog remain possible as near surface saturation tends to increase, particularly across southern sections augmented by flow off lake Erie.

Going forward tonight, a noted increase in deep layer forcing under tremendous mid level isentropic ascent into the existing frontal slope will offer a window for shower production - centered on the early morning hours /04z-09z/. Diminishing mid level stability given the degree of theta-e advection tied to this process will afford some embedded thunderstorms as well. Stability across the lowest 1 to 2k ft remains high during this time, with even the most generous CAM output tending to pinch off a shrinking corridor of weak near surface instability to the south just as the cold/occluded front arrives 07z-09z. Outgoing forecast will continue to highlight locally heavy rainfall and hail as the main threats with any activity overnight.

Earlier forecast update issued to add a fog mention and reduce precipitation chances/amounts prior to midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 651 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

AVIATION .

Very moist low level conditions held firm within a prevailing easterly flow well north of a surface warm front ensures IFR/LIFR level restrictions continue early tonight. Recent observational trends suggest some additional lowering of cigs/vsby remain possible going forward this evening, perhaps offering a brief window for dense fog formation and/or cigs below 200 ft. Surge of deeper mid level moisture and accompanying reduction of stability along elevated portions of the warm front will provide the greatest opportunity for shower and thunderstorm development during the early morning hours /04z-09z/. Some variability in both cigs and vsby are likely during this time depending on coverage/intensity of rainfall. Strengthening post-frontal southwest winds will then mark conditions throughout the Sunday period. Gusts reaching in excess of 30 knots expected during the afternoon and evening hours. A cool/moist cyclonic flow will maintain extensive MVFR to low VFR stratus, along with intermittent showers during the latter half of the day.

For DTW . A very low stratus deck holds throughout the night. Some areas of fog are emerging across Metro Detroit, suggesting visibility may tend to lower with time. Confidence in fog becoming dense remains very low. Main window for potential thunderstorms still centered mainly 05z to 09z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceiling at or below 5000 ft through Sunday.

* Moderate in thunderstorms during the early morning hours /05z- 09z/.

* Low in cigs below 200 ft and/or vsby below 1/2 mile tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

DISCUSSION .

Active weather across southern MI this afternoon through Sunday. A strong storm system will lift across the Northern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday bringing another round of thunderstorms which could become strong to severe to far southern MI this evening. This heavy rainfall combined with last nights may may result in some localized flooding warranting a Flood Watch. Lastly, strong southwesterly winds will gust to 35-45 mph necessitating a Wind Advisory.

A mid level low over the Central Plains will continue to deepen through this evening while lifting northeastward into the Midwest and becoming co-located with the associated surface low. A convectively driven wave lifting along the warm front will bring a round of thunderstorms to southern MI this evening with strong to severe weather remaining possible later this evening into the overnight. Good difluent flow aloft with strong upper level and low level jets will produce favorable region of lift and strong shear. Main issue is that the warm front will mainly residing south of the state, maybe through the event, the best surface based instability and forcing will hold south of the region. This would leave us with a couple hundred J/kg of of elevated instability to work with above a stout low level inversion. The shear and elevated instability higher up the front over SE MI could be enough to develop a few stronger thunderstorms with hail remaining a primary threat. South of I94 has the best chance of dealing with the surface warm front thus the best chance of surface based convection and brief weak tornadoes. Persistent cool easterly flow off the lakes will help keep the front from making it too far northward. Timing of the strongest storms is pushed back slightly to around 02-08Z this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may persist into Sunday morning when the cold front until the cold front sweeps through bringing a brief period of drier weather.

Showers and thunderstorms last night resulted in a swath of 1-2 inches of rain across Detroit, Ann Arbor and points southward. This same region has a chance of an addition inch rainfall tonight, more with increased convective activity, with this next round of storms. With reports of ditches and creeks already nearing bankfull, decided to issue a flood watch for that area through Sunday morning. Precipitation will redevelop in the afternoon as residual moisture, cold air advection, and diurnal heating boost produce scattered showers.

Heading into the afternoon Sunday, the stacked system will release eastward with the dry slot sliding up into the area helping shut off the rain. A secondary cold front will then sweep across in the early afternoon with a good pop of wind associated with it. 850mb jet in excess of 50 knots will slide across southern MI with mixing depths increasing with the cold advection setting up. Bufkit soundings show winds throughout the mixed layer solidly in the mid 30 knot range for all models across the area in the afternoon. The core of the strongest winds aloft will occur largely south of I69 and toward the MI/OH border. Local office probabilistic graphs line up well with deterministic models indicating the best chance for low end Advisory gusts south of FNT. Gusts should then taper off in the evening with the loss of the diurnal cycle and the pressure gradient decreasing as the low pulls away. A Wind Advisory has been issued for locations along and south of the I69 corridor (FNT to PHN) from 10AM to 8PM to account for this.

Monday will be cool and breezy as the low is still just to the east over Ontario/Quebec keeping northwest flow and a thermal trough over the state. Highs will be on the mid/upper 40s and will change little through week as a split flow pattern develops aloft. Could see some precip on Wed/Thurs as the upper low retrogrades back towards the Great Lakes. Hints of a backdoor cold front already showing up in long range models.

MARINE .

Low pressure will travel northeast from the Plains and will center over the Midwest this evening, allowing a warm front to push across the southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight hours tonight. Aside from stronger bursts of wind gusts tied to strong thunderstorms, wind direction will remain easterly, the strongest of which will be seen across northern Lake Huron.

Otherwise, wind direction will then veer southeast and southwest throughout Sunday following the passage of a cold front. A strengthening pressure gradient behind the front along with some mixing of strong low-level winds to the surface will produce a quick uptick in sustained wind speeds and gusts late Sunday morning. Strongest gusts are projected to impact Lake Erie up to Lake St Clair with the potential to see gusts anywhere between 35 to 40 knots through the day. Additional concerns for stronger wind gusts are noted for Saginaw Bay as the southwest fetch funnels down the Bay. As a result, a Gale Warning is now in effect for the aforementioned locations. Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore zones along Lake Huron will also be considered within the standard 24 hour window, as the low pressure nears.

HYDROLOGY .

A warm front will lift toward southern MI this evening and will result in another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening into the overnight period tonight. Around a half inch to an inch of rainfall is expected across the area with higher amounts possible where any thunderstorms track. Minor flooding of roads, low- lying and poor drainage areas, as well as small streams, will be possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for locations south of I94 that already received 1-2 inches of rainfall last night and have the best chance of exceeding an inch again tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ075-076-082-083.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MIZ060>063-068>070- 075-076-082-083.

Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for MIZ063-070.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.



UPDATE . MR AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . SP HYDROLOGY . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi88 min E 7 G 7 44°F 1011.2 hPa (+2.4)
AGCM4 26 mi58 min 48°F 37°F1009.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi148 min NNE 6 G 6 40°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi58 min 40°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi35 minE 101.75 miFog/Mist47°F46°F100%1009.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi93 minN 01.25 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist48°F48°F100%1010.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi32 minE 82.00 miFog/Mist47°F46°F100%1009.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi33 minE 60.75 miLight Rain47°F46°F99%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7E6E8SE4E6E7E7E9NE9NE10
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1 day agoE7NE8NE5NE5NE5N9NE5NE6NE8N8NE5NE8NE9NE8NE5N5NE4NE6SE6E7SE7E6E6E4
2 days agoS6S6S8S5S4S5S6S6S5SW5SW8S7SW11
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W6W8NW9NW9NW7NW4CalmE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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