Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:07PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:45 AM EDT (08:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 5:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 356 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201907170815;;744002 FZUS63 KDTX 161956 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...The remnants of tropical system Barry have lifted into the Ohio Valley this morning with several rounds of showers underway. Central pressure has weakened to 29.90 inches and winds will increase to around 15 knots. A shift in wind direction is expected this evening backing toward the south with a weakening trend. A warm front lifts across SE Michigan waters on Thursday. A stalled front then lays out across the northern Great Lakes keeping storm chances in the forecast through the weekend. LCZ460-170815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170740
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
340 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Discussion
One more forecast cycle with talks of rainfall as a result of the
surface low that is the remnants of TS barry. Cyclonic flow will
continue to reside over far SE lower mi this morning before a
surface trough dropping from central mi early this morning, passes
east of the detroit metro around lunch time today. This trough will
push the last of the deeper moisture off to the east with northerly
flow filling in it's wake.

Until then, we still have a corridor of deep moisture on the
northeast flank of the weak surface low lifting which will lift from
central in toward western lake erie this morning. Low level jet
lifting ahead of the low is sparking a new round of convection to
our south which may clip a portion of SE mi this morning before
pushing east. Current radar returns east of a line generally from
det to adg paints the area of concern where heaviest showers could
fill back in as the low level jet surges northeast. Expectations
based on current radar and model trends are for the bulk of the
heaviest rain to stay south of detroit but monroe county may get
clipped by it as it pivots north resulting in a couple hours of
heavy rain and possible flooding concerns. Luckily this area was
spared of the heaviest rains along i94 on Tuesday where 1 to 4
inches fell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will cover a bid
broader of an area north and west. The trough looks to pass south of
detroit by about 15z marking the end of the heavy rain chances.

Clouds will thin through the afternoon with dry air advection and
building mid level heights. Temps should have enough time to recover
reaching the mid 80s across the area.

Attention then turns to the subtropical ridge building from the
plains into the great lakes. A strong westerly jet racing across
southern canada Wednesday night and Thursday will start pulling much
warmer air eastward into the region. Thursday appears to be the
transition day from the current warm airmass to the much hotter
airmass as the warm front on the lead edge of the EML lifts through
mi. 850mb temps already nearing 20c Thursday afternoon with 500mb
heights around 588dam will boost the temps to near 90. Dewpoints
look to climb from the 60s early in the day to near 70 by evening as
the front progresses northeast. Big question mark will be potential
mcs developing over the midwest Wednesday night on the lead edge of
the EML which should turn SE following the instability gradient.

Based on suspected frontal position it would stay well west of here
but cloud debris in the early part of the day could dampen temps a
bit locally. Currently the forecast heat indices reach 95 to 105f
which would necessitate a heat advisory for at least part of the
area.

Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days of the week. Forecast
850mb temps reach near 23c resulting in high temps in the mid to
upper 90s across the area. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices
climb to over 100 both afternoons with little relief coming
overnight as min temps stay in the mid 70s Thursday night through
Saturday night. The possible catch for Friday temps will be the next
round of MCS activity Thursday night initiating over northern mn wi
then tracking ese through lower mi Friday. The strong westerlies
across northern mi and building cap across lower mi will hopefully
keep it north of us but a turn to the southeast will bear watching,
even if its just enhanced cloud cover.

Heat looks to break on Sunday as a pair of cold fronts drop through
the great lakes. Stronger of the two fronts looks to come later in
the evening so temps will still remain elevated in the mid upper
80s. Temps will remain lower through the first part of the week as
mid level troughing builds over the region with surface high
pressure to the west providing northerly flow and drier air.

Marine
A midlevel frontal boundary will remain draped across the region
heading into tonight, as the remnants of barry lift northeastward
and result in an increasing coverage of showers and embedded
thunderstorms. A lingering pressure gradient across the region will
allow southwest winds to continue gusting around 20 knots the
remainder of the afternoon across saginaw bay and into the central
lake huron basin, along with choppy 2-3 foot waves. As the remnants
of barry move towards the western lake erie basin tonight, winds and
waves will temporarily weaken before becoming fresh northeasterly
Wednesday with gusts 15-20 knots across much of the lake huron basin
as the pressure gradient again tightens between high pressure
drifting east south of james bay and the remnant low moving into the
mid-atlantic. The flow will then become more southwesterly in
direction heading into Thursday, with frequent gusts around 20 knots
possible across much of the local waters.

Hydrology
Late afternoon evening thunderstorms on Tuesday produced a swath of
heavy rainfall across central and northern washtenaw county, central
wayne county and southwest oakland county. 2 to 4 inches of rain
fell in these locations, with the highest amounts extending from
ypsilanti into canton township. Weak low pressure will linger over
metro detroit and points south this morning. There is a chance for
some locally heavy showers and thunderstorms in this region this
morning. Confidence on additional flooding rains however is low.

There is the potential for the development of an organized
thunderstorm complex(s) thurs afternoon and thurs night across the
area. Given the high atmospheric moisture content, there is a risk
for locally intense rainfall if this convection is to develop as
forecast.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1157 pm edt Tue jul 16 2019
aviation...

evening convection has waned considerably late this evening, but
still expect at least scattered activity to fill back into the area
from kfnt kptk south late tonight as area is brushed by northern
extent of what little is left of "barry". CIGS should fill in late
tonight into Wednesday morning when shower activity will be most
prevalent. Passing mid latitude disturbance will also focus this
moisture and then help clear things out as attending surface trough
settles south through the area.

For dtw... Showers will most likely dot the area again late tonight
into Wednesday morning with a period of MVFR CIGS possible. Skies
will then clear late Wednesday into Wednesday night as light north
flow develops in wake of passing surface trough.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet late tonight into
Wednesday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi45 min S 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi45 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 72°F1 ft1011.3 hPa (-0.6)
AGCM4 26 mi51 min 73°F 71°F1011.9 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi45 min SSE 13 G 15 74°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi51 min 73°F 1011.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi52 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1011.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi50 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F65°F92%1012.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi50 minSSW 810.00 miLight Rain75°F72°F94%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4SW3S5S7SW10SW4SW7SW12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS6S9S8S8SE9SW8S9S6S10
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2 days agoNW3NW5CalmN5N5NW4N6N4N8N4E8E10E8E7SE6SE7E6E6NE33CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.