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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 953 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the afternoon. Cloudy. A chance of light showers...light freezing rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon...then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 042016 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 316 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION

A little light snow toward the southern Michigan border tomorrow, then warming temperatures will be the theme for the work week.

Shortwave tracking through the Dakotas this afternoon and slipping into central Indiana by 12z Tuesday. Question is will this system still be strong enough and far enough north to support precipitation slipping north across the southern Michigan border. Based on the bulk of the hires solutions, and seeing 850-700 mb omega/forcing, the answers appears to be yes for areas along and south of I-94, with less confidence as one heads north. Mean temperature in the 850- 700 mb layer looks to be -10 C. 12z NAM still maintains a closed surface low/low level circulation through 18z Tuesday, which should be good enough with 925 mb temps of -2 to -3 C. Any layer above freezing is right at or just above the surface, so snow is expected to accumulate, especially after we drop into the upper 20s/near 30 degrees tonight. Accumulation around half an inch along and south of I-94 appears likely, and will then taper off pops quickly as one heads north.

Another compact shortwave over Lake Superior looks to be sliding through lower Michigan Tuesday evening/night, dampening in the process. Not out of the question to generate a little light snow/flurries with the 700 mb forcing (-18 C cold pool), as light westerly flow off Lake Michigan attempts to moisten the low levels, but deeper saturation struggles to reach/develop over southeast Michigan. Eastern Thumb region the exception, and likely stands the best chance with northerly flow off Lake Huron, and will carry 15- 25% pops there.

Building heights can then be expected for the rest of the work week, as pronounced upper level ridge over the Rockies will be sliding east, reaching the Central Great Lakes by Thursday. Strong warm front moving through Wednesday night may be sufficient to generate precipitation as solid moisture advection takes place Thursday morning. Thermal profiles could become an issue, but ok with mostly a snow mention (chance 15-30%) for now, if it even precips, as bulk of the forcing looks to be over Lake Huron.

Increasing southwest flow will support a significant warmup for the end of the work week, as 12z Euro indicates 925 mb temps reaching up to 8 C on Friday, supportive of highs well into the 50s (~15 degrees above normal).

Uncertain forecast for the weekend with several moving parts with the interaction of the northern stream and strong upper level wave/trough coming out of the Four Corners region. Current projections are for the southern wave to be dominant one and bring a good surge of moisture and a deep low tracking through the Central Great Lakes, per 12z Canadian/00z euro. Still, confidence is low based on the wide spread in ensemble members and the difficulty inherent with wave interactions/phasing in the extended. A snowier and windier backside of the low remains in play.

MARINE

Surface high pressure builds in briefly tonight, with light northwest flow holding across the bulk of the marine zones.
Meanwhile, a weakening clipper system dives southeast toward the Ohio Valley overnight with minimal impact on winds aside from subtle backing across the southern zones. Precipitation chances with this system are favored mainly south of Lake Huron beginning mid-morning, with just a shallow near-surface melting layer to support wet snow as the precipitation type. High pressure then fills in behind this system by mid-week, with lake effect snow showers lingering until southwest gradient flow organizes on Thursday. Attention then turns to a strong low pressure system which impacts the Great Lakes this weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

AVIATION...

A plume of low-level moisture aided from the Lake Superior-Huron connection, coupled with diurnal heating, will reinforce mvfr strato- cu into the evening. The exception will be across KMBS where an intrusion of dry low-level air will afford a period of more SCT coverage. Satellite imagery continues to march lake enhanced stratus inland, which will attempt to expand into KMBS through the late afternoon. The caveat to this will be that dry low-level air, which is showing early indications of being scoured out over the northern Tri-Cities.

A boost in moisture quality is expected late tonight downstream of an approaching clipper system which will support mvfr cigs overnight. Snow will encroach and will likely extend north into the Michigan/Ohio border, but the question is how far north the northern fringe of the precipitation extends into Michigan. About a little more than half of the model guidance has very light accumulating snow expanding into the Metro terminals, so have opted to introduce snow chances given increasing chances (~60% chance). Temperatures will be just above freezing so most if not all accumulation will be reserved for grassy surfaces.

For DTW...Increasing chances (~60%) for very light snow tomorrow, likely between the 14Z-22Z window. Refinements to both snow chances and timing are expected leading into the event. Accumulation will likely only be several tenths of an inch, mostly reserved for grassy surfaces.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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