Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 6:53PM Monday October 14, 2019 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 955 Pm Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning...then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots early in the evening. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201910150800;;722423 FZUS63 KDTX 150156 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.10 inches, will build across the Ohio Valley later this afternoon bringing calmer winds and drier conditions. This high slides to the eastern seaboard during the day Tuesday as another low pressure system develops over the western Great Lakes. LCZ460-150800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 142349
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
749 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019

Aviation
The last of the cold air aloft is contributed to boundary layer,
diurnal driven cumulus over southeast michigan. The cloud will fade
quickly with loss of daytime heating setting the stage for quietVFR
tonight. Midlevel warm advection will begin overnight in response to
increasing geopotential heights. A lowering subsidence inversion
will yield increased midlevel static stability that will persist
throughout much of the day Tuesday. A powerful shortwave will then
track directly through the great lakes region Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Very strong synoptic scale forcing will result in rapid
increase in moisture advection, ifr, and rain showers after 01z
Wednesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings AOB 5 kft tonight and Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 258 pm edt Mon oct 14 2019
discussion...

expect a bit of a roller coaster the next few days in terms of
temperatures as a strong shortwave disturbance tracks into the
central great lakes by midweek.

While warm air advection in advance of this system will already be
underway tonight, at least above the boundary layer, it still
appears to be a decent setup for frost as ridging at the surface
should provide a period of generally clear skies and light winds
through about 09z Tuesday morning. Cloud cover this afternoon has
become more and more diurnal in nature and should dissipate fairly
steadily from the early to mid evening hours. With temperatures
starting in the 40s to around 50 late today, this will allow for
widespread low temperatures in the middle 30s with the trend to
clearing and lighter winds promoting widespread frost.

Warm air advection within increased southerly flow will lead to a
rather mild day on Tuesday as skies start out mostly sunny. Highs
should reach the 60s in many locations (and at least mid upper 50s
over northern portions of the forecast area).

Dynamically, the aforementioned shortwave is organizing quickly as it
progresses into the area with the strong forcing developing over the
region and then quickly surging east of the area overnight Tuesday
night. Rain showers will become likely as the cold front associated
with the system tracks into the area by late evening early Tuesday
morning. However, rainfall totals look to remain on the light side
as notably better coverage intensity look to be forestalled until
late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning to the east of the area.

Conditions on Wednesday will be much cooler as cold air advection
ensues as the developing upper low pivots east of the area. Expect
highs to only reach the lower 50s in most locations with gusty
northwest winds develop. Showers on the backside of this system will
not be especially heavy either, but will definitely be widespread
enough (aided to some degree by lake effect processes) to further
emphasize what will already be cool and blustery day. No frost is
anticipated into Wednesday night as skies only gradually become
partly cloudy and the boundary layer remains mixed with wind gusts
still reaching 20 mph throughout the overnight hours. Lows in this
weather regime will settle into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mature strong low pressure system along the new england coast on
Thursday will be slow to pull off to the northeast. With the
amplified east coast trough, a longer period of upper level
northwest confluent flow over southeast michigan will exist, which
allows surface high ridge to persist right into Friday before warm
advection pattern spreads in Friday night into Saturday, with 850 mb
temps making a run AOA 10 c. Weakening cold front tracking through
on Saturday perhaps touching off a few showers, but 12 euro
continues to suggest the frontal precipitation drying up. Ridging
returns for the second half of the weekend, before next surge of
moisture warm front arrives Sunday night into Monday, leading to
what looks to be widespread showers developing.

Marine...

as low pressure pulls off to the northeast tonight, high pressure
slides across the ohio valley bringing light winds across the
region. Winds then back to the southeast and restrengthen Tuesday in
advance of a developing low pressure system that will track through
the northern great lakes Tuesday night. Winds may briefly approach
25 knots Tuesday night but the center of the low tracking across
lake huron will limit duration and gust potential. Fresh cold
advection and strong northwest flow in the wake of the system will
then have potential to produce gales late Wednesday through Thursday
morning. A gale watch has been issued for lake huron and saginaw bay
for this potential.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Tuesday for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for
lhz361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi73 min WSW 1 G 1.9 49°F 1019.6 hPa (+1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi73 min 51°F 55°F1 ft1018.3 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 26 mi55 min 46°F 54°F1018.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi73 min W 11 G 13 53°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi55 min 46°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi80 minN 010.00 miFair45°F34°F66%1019.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi77 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F38°F79%1019.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi75 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy46°F36°F69%1019.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi77 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F80%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6W6W8
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W7W8W8W8W5CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.