Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:11PM Thursday February 20, 2020 9:11 PM EST (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:54AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0067.000000t0000z-191230t1300z/ 754 Am Est Mon Dec 30 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 800 am est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The showers have moved out of the area. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4236 8286 4239 8294 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4302 8244 4297 8241 time...mot...loc 1254z 216deg 43kt 4352 8232 4307 8173
LCZ422 Expires:201912301304;;156663 FZUS73 KDTX 301254 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 754 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2019 LCZ422-460-301304-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit city, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 202318 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 618 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

AVIATION.

Extended period of clear skies will exist this taf period, as conditions remain governed by a very dry environment. Prevailing west to northwest winds late this evening will veer to southwest by Friday morning. Some increase in southwest winds expected on Friday, with diurnal mixing leading to gusty conditions for the afternoon period. Gusts 20 to 25 knots peaking mid-late afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 336 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

Prototypical late winter anticyclone setup across Southeast Michigan today with deep column static stability from roughly 2.5 to 15.0 kft agl. Many factors aligning to bring the high pressure, including negative differential cyclonic vorticity advection with exit of the trough axis, advent of deeper cold air advection, and confluent flow aloft drifting just east of Southeast Michigan. Secondary 900-800mb dry air advection is expected to combine with increasing active subsidence to dry out the column even more locally. Pwats this afternoon are forecasted to drop below 0.07 of an inch, which is nearing record territory. No tangible shot at any meaningful cloud resulted in sunny conditions. Upper level shortwave ridging aloft will push down into the central Great Lakes as anticyclonic Rossby wave break arrives. Absolute vorticity fields show strong anticyclonic gyre to rotate down through the region only adding to active subsidence. This forcing tonight will force the subsidence to aggressively work down into the 1.5 to 6.0 kft agl layer.

The anticyclonic gyre will support a deep anticyclone center from 875mb upwards of 400mb tracking directly through Southeast Michigan from 12-21Z Friday. Dry column and surface based mixing will result in another day with no cloud. Development of southwesterly return flow particularly during the afternoon hours will allow temperatures to moderate a good amount. Highs Friday are expected to be in the middle 30s some 10 degrees warmer than today.

Very quiet weather in store throughout the upcoming weekend as dry westerly flow remains in place. Forecast soundings show that given the thermodynamics it will require a significant advection event to get the column saturated any appreciably amount. Prevailing southwesterly winds will be in place which will result in continued moderation each of the days. Clouds are a primary question for temperatures this time of the year and current indications are that any frontogenetic/cloud area will remain well to the north of Southeast Michigan. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the lower to middle 40s, temperatures Sunday are expected to be in the upper 40s potentially reaching the lower 50s. These values will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Southern stream PV anomaly from the coast of California is forecasted to push eastward and arrive over the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Monday or Tuesday. Current indications suggest this initial PV feature will deamplify and become sheared out by the time it arrives. Latest forecasted flow configuration suggests a very strong southern split stream jet packet moving across the Southern United States. Given the lack of phasing in the curren t model suite, the lead energy supports much of the energy remaining to the south initially.

MARINE .

High pressure over MN/IA will continue to drop south-southeast across the Plains today into this weekend. The central Great Lakes region will remain on the eastern and northern edges of the high as it slides across the central part of the country. Winds will slowly rotate from west-northwest today to southwesterly Friday. A stronger gradient and favorable 850mb LLJ dynamics will develop as a low pivots through Hudson Bay generating stronger winds Friday afternoon into Friday night. Models today have been trending more aggressive with low-end gale-force gusts across the Outer Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron resulting from the long fetch on the bay with SW flow. A Gale Watch is in effect for the previously mentioned areas Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Winds will begin to relax some this weekend as the low moves into northeastern Quebec weakening the gradient over the Great Lakes region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ363-421.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi71 min WNW 6 G 8 21°F 1036.2 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 35 mi59 min 18°F 32°F1035 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi71 min WNW 13 G 15 23°F
TWCO1 48 mi31 min NNW 9.9 G 14
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 51 mi53 min NW 2.9 G 6

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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W8
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1 day
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W7
G13
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E11
G15
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NE7
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S3
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G8
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G12
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G23
W11
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G23
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G27
NW14
G21
W13
G20
W10
G16
W11
G15
W8
G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI5 mi78 minWNW 510.00 miFair21°F3°F45%1037 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI12 mi76 minWNW 510.00 miFair20°F5°F52%1036.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI16 mi78 minNW 510.00 miFair19°F3°F52%1037.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi76 minNNW 410.00 miFair20°F5°F51%1035.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI22 mi75 minWNW 410.00 miFair20°F5°F53%1036.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW6NW9
G17
NW8NW11NW8N8N6NW4NW5NW5NW7NW7N9
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G17
NW9W9NW95NW7W6NW6W5NW4
1 day agoW11W9
G18
W9
G19
NW7W5W5W6NW8NW12
G21
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2 days agoE11
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E10E11SE9SE3CalmS5SW9SW12W13
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G30
W9
G26
W12
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W8
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W10W9
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W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.