Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 9:08PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 3:31 AM EDT (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 3:33PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0022.000000t0000z-200710t1945z/ 336 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.the special marine warning will expire at 345 pm edt... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4293 8245 4289 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4248 8272 4255 8287 4268 8279 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8242 4298 8241 time...mot...loc 1935z 198deg 13kt 4278 8259 4250 8291
LCZ422 Expires:202007101945;;637904 FZUS73 KDTX 101936 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 336 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 LCZ422-460-101945-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit city, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 150406 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1206 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

AVIATION.

High amplitude upper level ridge will remain in place over Southeast Michigan tonight. Active subsidence within the 3.0 to 7.0 kft agl layer, driven by notable anticyclonic vorticity gyres shedding across the Lower Peninsula this evening, will result in strong static stability and quiet weather. Looking at convective debris cirrus tonight. Very low 825-700mb moisture advection will occur throughout the day Wednesday carrying low potential for any low cloud development. Low confidence exists on probabilities/timing of precipitation chances Wednesday evening/night as organized anticylonic flow trajectories will persist limiting depth of favorable moisture.

For DTW . Low confidence on shower/thunderstorm development Wednesday evening/Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

DISCUSSION .

A midlevel shortwave ridge crests overhead this evening with the surface high pressure center drifting eastward into the eastern Great Lakes. This maintains quiet conditions into tonight with a dry southeast flow over Southeast Michigan. Looking at increasing cloud cover tonight, especially north of M-59, as high debris cloud from today's convection over Wisconsin moves in. Low temps more mild tonight in the 60s.

The upstream convection is tied to an area of height falls/PVA and upper divergence moving over a frontal zone currently draped across the northern Mississippi Valley. This parent forcing mostly strips away into northern Ontario tonight with the frontal zone becoming nearly stationary across the northern Great Lakes as flow orients more parallel to it. This brings showers and some storms across northern lower Michigan on Wednesday but SE Michigan holds on to the ridge and stays dry. The upward temperature and humidity trend continues tomorrow as a rising thickness field and low-level south to southwesterly temperature advection send highs into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. South wind ahead of the front increases to 10 to 15 mph during the day.

Shortwave energy emanating from convection over the Plains today and Wednesday tracks east and interacts with the longwave trough which swings it northeastward into the Great Lakes late Wednesday night. This feature stands the best chance to budge the front and provide forcing for an area of showers and a few storms overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A slower shortwave has been noted in the past few model cycles and is supported by local probabilistic guidance which gives at least a chance of showers/storms continuing into Thursday afternoon. Severe potential will be limited by unfavorable overnight/early-day timing and meager instability, but heavy rainfall continues to be a possibility.

With moisture pooling ahead of the front, still looking at potential for PWATs to rise to near 2 inches which lends confidence to efficient rainfall processes. Model guidance struggles on the strength/position/orientation of the wave (and will likely continue to do so given its convective origin), but potential is certainly there for a strong LLJ/moisture feed and a defined deformation axis if a stronger wave does develop, both of which would enhance rainfall production. The ensemble solution space remains broad with varying outcomes, including a few hi-res solutions and the 12z NAM which depict a swath of 1 to 2"+ somewhere across lower Michigan. Still some moving parts to resolve in the upstream convective evolution before leaning more toward these solutions, but their existence at least highlights them as a higher end possibility. For now, will keep a broad-brushed 0.25 to 0.50" across the CWA with refinements likely in the next few forecast cycles.

The front pushes through the Great Lakes on Thursday with cloud cover and potential for continued on and off precip bringing highs down a couple degrees compared to Wednesday. Midlevel ridging then builds over the southern two-thirds of the CONUS by Friday which forces the Great Lakes trough back northward, opening the door for another stretch of warm weather. A plume of hot and humid air is progged to advect into the region as zonal flow sets up along the US/Canada border with highs in the 90s and humid conditions likely for the weekend. A few waves in this flow will bring a chance for scattered showers and storms each day from Saturday onward.

MARINE .

Weak and broad high pressure will continue to build across the region for the early week period resulting in dry conditions through at least early Wednesday. Northerly flow will subside overnight tonight before flow increases slightly from the southeast on Tuesday. The next chance for unsettled weather is expected Wednesday night as a low pressure system moves in from the west.

HYDROLOGY .

Heavy rain becomes a possibility from late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a shortwave lifts northeastward across Southeast Michigan. While instability will be limited, increasing deep-layer moisture and mesoscale forcing may be able to produce heavy rainfall rates in scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Potential exists for some areas to receive over 1 inch of rain, but these amounts are not likely to be widespread. At this time, most areas should see closer to 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Flooding concerns appear to be minimal with the most likely scenario being localized ponding of water in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . IRL HYDROLOGY . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi31 min S 4.1 G 6 74°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.6)
45147 - Lake St Clair 23 mi151 min SSE 12 G 14 73°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (+0.5)
AGCM4 35 mi61 min 72°F1019.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi91 min SE 18 G 19 78°F
45165 48 mi71 min SSE 12 G 16 76°F 79°F2 ft62°F
TWCO1 48 mi21 min SSE 13 G 17 79°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI5 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair71°F62°F73%1019 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI12 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair71°F62°F75%1020 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI16 mi38 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F64°F74%1018.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi36 minS 510.00 miFair75°F65°F72%1019 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI22 mi35 minS 410.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F68°F97%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4CalmSE3534SE34SW6
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66E10SE8S7SE6S6S5SE7S5CalmCalm
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalm3N3NW65NW7NW3N5
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3SE8CalmE6E8E7SE5CalmE4E3NE3CalmN3
2 days agoN4NW3N3CalmN3NW4NW7NW5NW45NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.