Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

AVIATION

Overcast mid and high level clouds have pushed into the terminal corridor this morning. Expecting predominately VFR ceilings as top down saturation lowers the ceilings down to around 3-5kft throughout the the morning into the early afternoon. This system will run into a fair amount of lower level dry air and models have been trending downward in regards to light snow potential. Expect that there will be a few flurries out there today, but have lower confidence in overall timing. Will focus a PROB30 group for P6SM -SHSN for the early afternoon allowing some time for better saturation. There will be some potential for scattered MVFR ceilings to develop towards this evening as any chance for flurries comes to an end. Winds will be out of the south through the majority of the day before veering to the southwest tonight. The afternoon will see gusts to near 25 knots before lighter winds prevail this evening.

For DTW... Ceilings to 5kft or lower will develop throughout the morning into the afternoon with a limited chance to see flurries.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning and afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 638 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Anticyclonic influence to the east acts to suppress ascent associated with inbound mid-level height falls today. Although top- down saturation is currently underway, mid-level warm advection reinforces static stability from 3-12 kft AGL. Accordingly, models continue to trend lower with accumulating snow potential for today.
Local decrease in PoPs is corroborated by meager upstream snow observation density, with only minor visibility reductions for the few sites that reported precipitation during the last several hours (over Minnesota and Wisconsin). Latest automated guidance refresh zeroed-out PoPs. To account for a few flakes at times, added in afternoon/evening flurry mention. Temperatures should be at or above freezing by the time flakes start to fall, therefore no accumulations expected, even if some localized overachievement on rates should occur. Still seasonably cold today with highs in the upper 30s. Becoming gusty this afternoon once shallow diurnal boundary-layer mixing taps into 25+ knot low-level flow. The weak disturbance will dislodge downstream ridging, allowing a secondary shortwave to transit the Great Lakes region late tonight into Thursday.

A speed max rolling downstream of a seasonably anomalous/amplified longwave ridge over western CONUS crosses into Southeast Michigan early Thursday morning. Thermodynamic profiles indicate precipitation type concerns, but favoring (liquid) rain. Given the narrow precipitation swath with this system, current trajectories focus most of the light QPF over the southwestern half of the CWA
Temperatures will start out in the upper 20s to lower 30s amidst insulating nocturnal cloud cover, therefore icing potential should be minimal/isolated for areas that sufficiently cool and reside further west, maximizing potential to freeze before temperatures quickly warm into the 40s shortly after sunrise. A glaze of morning icing is possible but not probable for the west-central counties.
Liquid equivalent totals should only sum to a few hundredths by Thursday evening when the wave exits over Lake Erie.

Lower tropospheric ridging dampens as it slides over the state Thursday night into Friday. The next embedded wave ejects into the region Friday morning. Potential exists for showers as a perturbed wind field moves in overhead, but a very sharp low-level inversion layer prevents much of a wind (or precipitation) response. A warming trend will be well underway to close out the workweek with highs possibly exceeding 60F with greater proximity to the Michigan/Ohio border. This ensures any precipitation that does occur will be in the form of rain showers. Period of deeper saturation will be brief (if it materializes), then the mid and upper levels dry out quickly Friday evening. The aforementioned longwave ridge should flatten out and fold east over the weekend. Solution space remains mixed on the positioning of the more active periphery which will dictate any additional opportunities for showers. Sunday offers the best chance for some showers, along with a stronger wind field and a cold frontal passage veering winds northwesterly to bring about more seasonable temperatures by early next week.

MARINE...

Moderate southerly winds return today as return flow around departing high pressure kicks in, and low pressure tracks through northern Ontario Wednesday night, drawing a warm front north. Gusts of 25-30 knots are expected this afternoon over the over the open waters of Lake Huron, as 925 mb temperatures only rise to -6 to -7 C, leading to mixing depths up to that level.

Light winds return Thursday-Friday as a weak frontal boundary washes out on Thursday. A warm front will then arrive on Friday, bringing a better chance of precipitation.

Warm airmass (7-10 C at 850 mb) in place on Saturday favors winds aob 20 knots with limited mixing/stable low levels. Next cold front on track to move through Saturday evening, with good low level cold advection and gusty northerly winds for Saturday night. Once again, a period of wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots appear likely. The the unstable low level profiles and longer fetch will result in large waves building over the southern Lake Huron basin, with waves aoa 4 feet impacting the nearshore waters.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.