Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:00PM Monday December 9, 2019 9:11 PM EST (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:39PMMoonset 4:54AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 401 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Areas of fog in the evening. Light rain likely in the evening...then scattered light snow showers and a chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers and light rain in the morning...then a chance of light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. A chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201912100915;;106126 FZUS63 KDTX 092101 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 401 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure located across the central Plains with an average pressure of 29.60 moves to northern Lake Huron by this evening with an average pressure of 29.30 inches. the low will eventually move across Quebec by Tuesday morning, deepening down to 29.10 inches, which will allow a strong cold front to drag across the Great Lakes during this time. Increased wind speeds and wave heights are expected in response to the rush of colder air on Tuesday. LCZ460-100915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 092316 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 616 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION.

Ample low level moisture will sustain some drizzle and IFR or low end MVFR stratus this evening. A cold front will then traverse the region late this evening with an increasing depth of the post frontal low level cold air allowing cigs to lift into MVFR and eventually lower VFR by early Tuesday morning. Westerly gusts will exceed 25 at times overnight within this post frontal cold air advection.

For DTW . Lingering -ra/-dz with IFR cigs can be expected at times this evening before cold front leads to gradually lifting cigs and dry weather overnight. West/southwest winds after fropa will gust to 25 knots overnight within cold air advection regime. Improving wind and cig conditions are then expected on Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet into Tuesday afternoon.

* High in precip being all rain/drizzle this evening.

* Low in ceilings dropping at or below 200 ft this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 404 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

DISCUSSION .

Southeast Michigan will remain entrenched within the resident warm, moist airmass through about midnight. Steadily diminishing moist isentropic ascent and descending mid-level /800-700mb/ dry air in the presence of abundant moisture near the surface and plenty of shearwise instability beneath the inversion will support a transition to drizzle and areas of fog during the evening. Temperatures will remain above 40 for most of the area through midnight.

Cold front extending from the UP into northeast Missouri defined by a sharp wind shift and a convergent line of showers. Forecast cross- sections confirm its fairly impressive appearance in the obs as a dynamic feature capable forcing substantial overturning during its passage. Arrival of the colder airmass will accordingly be accompanied by gusty winds around 30 kts with room for a few higher pops.

Temperatures falling into the upper 20s/low 30s by sunrise will recover little or not all on Tuesday as coldest airmass since mid- autumn gently eases through the area within ongoing westerly cold advection. 850mb temperatures will fall to around -18C on Wednesday, similar to what was observed a month ago. Of course with shorter days, extensive cloud cover, and no snowcover, it follows that high temperatures with this cool down may top out a bit lower than early November, but low temperatures will be considerably warmer . mid- teens. Overlake instability throughout this time will be rather steady as increasingly colder temps are offset by diminishing moisture quality. 0-1km theta-e lapse rates over Lake Michigan will accordingly hold rather steady around -4C/KM tonight through Wednesday within uniformly westerly flow backing to wsw late Tuesday night. Best large scale support during the first half of Tuesday may support some deeper convection around 6kft as the ambient boundary layer intersects the DGZ by around 12z. Organized showers capable of producing a quick half inch or so will be possible along the I-94 to I-96 corridors will be possible through the first half of Tuesday before daytime instability compromises integrity of the convection.

Medium range will be characterized by consolidation of the split flow regime into impressively strong high index/zonal flow centered around 45N over both the Pacific and Atlantic. Temperatures will moderate back to the warmer side of normal with no noteworthy wx to speak of through the weekend. Variable clouds within fast-moving flow aloft.

MARINE .

Moderate southwest flow will quickly veer to northwestly as a cold front traverses the waters during the first half of tonight. Strong northwest flow will gust to near-gales or gales at times, mainly within the frontal zone itself. The short duration of potential gusts to gales precludes issuance of a warning at this time. However . small craft advisories have been extended to all marine zones due to increasing westerly flow tonight. As cold air infiltrates the area . the primary hazard will transition to snow squalls Tuesday through Wednesday, mainly over Lake Huron including Saginaw Bay. Squalls will significantly reduce visbility over the waters.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ422-442-443.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi71 min SW 9.9 G 16 51°F 998.3 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 21 mi53 min 47°F 41°F997.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi71 min SSW 16 G 17 47°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi18 minSW 1310.00 miOvercast51°F48°F92%997.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi76 minSSW 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast51°F50°F100%997.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi16 minSW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast49°F48°F95%997.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S7S9
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1 day agoS6S7S6S9S7S10S10S8S11S11S10S8S12
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2 days agoN6NW6NW4NW4NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW5SW4S7S7S8S6S5S5S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.