Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:30PM Monday January 20, 2020 6:30 PM EST (23:30 UTC) Moonrise 4:04AMMoonset 1:56PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 344 Pm Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202001202145;;256466 FZUS63 KDTX 202044 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.80 inches across the Midwest to drift southeast across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening, weakening down to 30.50 inches along the way. Prevailing northeast flow will back to the west-southwest through Wednesday in response to the advancing high pressure system. High pressure to then depart and expand across the eastern coast later in the week which will allow a weak warm front to push north across the Great Lakes. LCZ460-202145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 202053 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

DISCUSSION.

Dry conditions continue through the early week with temperatures on a multi-day below normal stretch for the first time in a while. We have to go back into mid November to find a string of more than 2 below normal days in a row for the Detroit area. Lows tonight generally in the single digits to lower teens and highs Tuesday mainly in the upper 20s should make it 3 in a row before a warming trend begins during mid week.

The main question in the short term forecast is regarding the coverage of lake stratus extending into SE Michigan tonight and its durability through Tuesday. Afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations today show solid coverage across northern and western Lower Michigan reaching into the Saginaw valley and Thumb. These clouds are set to make additional eastward progress in backing low level wind that results from high pressure sliding to our west and south during the night. The wind field is on the light side which means it will take while for clouds to reach all the way to Detroit and also suggests some breaks will be possible during the night. Both of these trends support holding the low temperature forecast on the low end of the guidance range to allow for some spurts of radiational cooling over fresh snow cover. The usually sheltered interior locations reach the single digits while urban and shoreline areas end up in the 10 to 15 degree range once again by sunrise Tuesday.

A mostly cloudy start Tuesday morning trends toward a greater amount of sunshine during the afternoon as low level dry air helps deactivate lake effect clouds. Any resulting increase in daytime warming is likely too late to boost high temperatures past the upper 20s. Readings then begin a more notable moderation Tuesday night through Wednesday as stronger south flow develops over the Great Lakes on the west flank of surface high pressure migrating to the Atlantic coast. Dry weather is also maintained by the system while high clouds thicken over the region which may end up a factor in limiting high temperatures to around 30.

Continued moderation in temperatures is accompanied by an uptick in prospects for precipitation Thursday, at least a low probability for the Saginaw valley and northern Thumb. During this time, a weak front/surface trough settles into Upper Michigan from Canada associated with a northern stream low pressure system. Weak isentropic lift is shown occuring within the moisture axis along and ahead of the boundary over Lower Michigan which brushes the Tri Cities and northern Thumb. The combination of model soundings and QPF suggest a low chance of a light rain/snow mix as the pattern stalls during Thursday night. Entry level chance POPs in the guidance database looks Ok for this time period.

The pattern Thursday over the Great Lakes stalls Thursday night as the next low pressure system digs into the central Plains and reaches the mid Mississippi valley by Friday. The sharp southward track is helped by some lee side trough development in the southern stream and progressive amplification of the larger scale upper air pattern upstream over the eastern Pacific. Shortwave ridge development centered over Lower Michigan then holds the stalled front to our north and leaves SE Michigan effectively between systems through much of Friday. Prefer holding on to entry level chance POPs once again for a light rain/snow mix as the bulk of low level cold air is confined to our north.

The latest runs of extended range models continue with the preference of a closed solution on the mid Mississippi valley system heading into the weekend. There also remain a few options on the track of that system as it moves east of the Mississippi river Friday night and Saturday. The stalled front/trough to our north washes out in the meantime which allows some colder air to leak southward leaning precipitation type toward snow. The question then is if the closed low slides eastward more along the Ohio valley which would allow the north flank of the precipitation shield to reach SE Michigan, or if it takes a farther south track leaving just a weak mid level deformation pattern over the central Great Lakes through Saturday. A position about over the Ohio/West Virginia border is favored in the latest deterministic runs by 12Z Saturday which brings the northern fringe of the precipitation shield up to about the M-59 corridor during Saturday. This is slightly faster and farther south than the GEFS and NAEFS means and includes a northward trend in the 12Z ECMWF track compared to its 00Z run.

MARINE.

A surface high pressure system will expand across the Midwest tonight and will gradually settle over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon which will allow a moderate pressure gradient to develop across Lake Huron. The resulting pressure gradient will allow prevailing northwest flow to hold through the night with gusts around 25 knots across northern and central Lake Huron. Slight backing of wind direction to the west-southwest expected Tuesday, tied to the advancing high pressure system. Pressure gradient strength to increase slightly during the midweek period, allowing gusts to hold around 25 knots across Lake Huron, but otherwise, no active weather expected until at least Wednesday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1144 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

AVIATION .

Western and northern lower Michigan engulfed in low clouds (2500-3500 ft) late this morning, and some of these clouds should bleed over into southeast Michigan from northwest to southeast with the light west- northwest winds in place. Ultimately, with the consensus amongst the short term models with a subtle trough tracking through, did carry at least a period of high MVFR/borderline VFR this evening/tonight at all taf sites, but upper level ridge axis building into southern Lower Michigan will tend to lower the inversion height which is expected to lead to a dissipation to the low clouds for Tuesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for ceilings below 5000 ft late this evening into early morning hours, otherwise low.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . AM AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi31 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 23°F 1034.5 hPa (+0.6)
AGCM4 21 mi43 min 22°F 34°F1033.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi49 min 23°F 1033.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi49 min NW 4.1 G 7 21°F 1033.3 hPa9°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi38 minNW 510.00 miFair23°F8°F53%1035.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi95 minN 610.00 miFair22°F8°F56%1035.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi36 minNNW 610.00 miFair23°F10°F60%1034.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW8NW6NW6NW6NW7NW5NW5NW5NW5NW6NW5NW4NW5N4N6N6NW8N5N6N8NW5NW6NW5
1 day ago--W16
G25
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SW9W15
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6NW7NW8NW5
2 days agoSE10SE8SE8E9E11E10SE12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.