Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:10PM Saturday July 11, 2020 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:31AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 346 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202007112000;;665949 FZUS63 KDTX 110814 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...An area of low pressure, 29.60 inches, and attendant cold front will slowly wobble northeast towards Georgian Bay the remainder of tonight and into Saturday. The area of low pressure will then slowly exit to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday with weak and diffuse high pressure, averaging 29.90 inches, building across the central Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. LCZ460-112000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 111633 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1233 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

AVIATION.

Breezy afternoon with northwest winds gusting aoa 20 knots with sct- bkn VFR (4-8 kft) cu developing on schedule. Will be watching upper level wave tracking through the Western Great Lakes and into the northern Ohio Valley late tonight. Will allow for an increase in mid clouds across the southern TAF sites by sunrise, but expecting any showers/convective activity to remain south of the border.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 412 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

DISCUSSION .

Airmass modification is underway this morning for SE MI in the wake of heavy rainfall associated with a sharp shortwave trough. While the low-level cyclonic circulation is now east of the CWA, a few lagging deformation showers will persist for a few more hours before drier conditions are realized area-wide. Winds aloft align from the W/NW today on the periphery of an inbound ridge axis. This will be sufficient in the near-term to advect drier air from 850-500 mb flow trajectories tracing back toward Hudson Bay, intersecting a region of lower ThetaE air across northern Ontario. This will contribute to the decrease in mid-level dewpoints during the late morning hours as compressional warming from stronger mid-tropospheric subsidence helps setup a capping inversion in the 750-650 mb layer. HiRes guidance maintains a bearish outlook for diurnal convection even as subtle low-amplitude shortwave energy generates weak vorticity through central Lower Michigan. Cut afternoon PoPs accordingly with an accelerated exit of late morning showers. Outdoor conditions will feel more comfortable given a 3-5 C drop in 850 mb temperatures this afternoon and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s paired with a light breeze. Overnight lows return to normal, in the low 60s with partly clear skies.

Sunday begins dry and cool with increasing cloudiness as a ridge running shortwave trough dives southeast toward the Ohio Valley. While the disturbance primarily remains south of the Michigan border, there may still be enough PVA to facilitate some lift as the wave flattens and pivots into the ambient downstream synoptic trough fusing with what remains of Tropical Depression Fay. PWATs will climb back above the 1.00 inch mark with moisture convergence ahead of a slowly southward propagating cold front. Expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop Sunday afternoon to be focused over the southern tier counties given some evidence that a corridor of +1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 6.5 C/km may setup across the aforementioned area. As has been the theme for much of the past week, shear will be lacking (effective less than 15 knots) suggesting a more pulse/cluster-like convective mode. Temperatures will be the coolest the area has seen in a while with highs only peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows near or just below 60 F across the interior localities.

Higher uncertainty exists with Monday's forecast and the likelihood of showers/storms. PoPs may be a bit overdone given the dryness of the low-levels and solid mid-level capping. Yet it's early, thus decided to maintain NBM values. A warming trend also starts on Monday as a ridge axis pushes into the western Great Lakes. Height rises will gradually increase through mid-week as 90 degree heat returns with higher humidity from a Gulf moisture connection extending from southern Texas. This will help raise storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE .

An area of low pressure and an attendant cold front will slowly wobble northeast towards Georgian Bay the remainder of tonight and into early Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage after sunrise as the low moves further northeast from the region. A tightening pressure gradient between the departing low and diffuse high pressure over the upper Midwest and mid-Mississippi Valley will allow for fresh moderate northwest flow to set up across the local waters Saturday, with gusts around 20 knots along the nearshore waters. A few gusts may approach 25 knots at times, but should be sporadic enough coupled with low wave heights to preclude any mention of hazardous small craft conditions at this time.

A secondary cold front will then cross the region late in the weekend with another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Behind the secondary cold front, lighter northwest flow will be reinforced across the local waters heading into early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SF DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . IRL/KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi86 min WNW 11 G 20 78°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi26 min NW 9.7 G 12 75°F2 ft1006.6 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 21 mi56 min 80°F 70°F1007.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi56 min 82°F 1006.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi56 min NNW 11 G 18 79°F 1006.1 hPa62°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi86 min WNW 18 G 20 76°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi33 minNNW 11 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F62°F51%1008 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi90 minNW 16 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds79°F66°F66%1007.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi31 minWNW 17 G 2310.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F61°F51%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4E4SE5SE6S3E6NE5SE4SW5NW7NW9NW8NW10NW8NW8NW11
G17
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NW10NW7NW12
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1 day ago5S8S8SW8SW4S4S5S5SE7S8NW7N3E6E5SE3S3SE5S3S7S8SW7S7S7S4
2 days agoS10W11
G25
NE5CalmSW4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSE43S6S5S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.