Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:06PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 951 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon...then becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201907182015;;252739 FZUS63 KDTX 181351 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 951 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A warm front, 29.80 inches, will from west to east across Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening before stalling over Lake Huron tonight. A cold front is then forecast to move across Upper Michigan on Friday before slowly pushing south across Lake Huron Saturday, then into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. High pressure is then forecast to expand across the Great Lakes early next week. LCZ460-182015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181039
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
639 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Aviation
The cluster of thunderstorms (mcs complex) over wisconsin is
expected to weaken as it heads into western lower mi late this
morning early this afternoon as it outruns the better instability
reservoir. A warm front will however advance into SE mi from the west
late this afternoon. The arrival of this front will be marked by an
increase in moisture and instability, which may allow for convective
development or redevelopment from the remnant mcs. The most probable
time period for this to occur will be from 18z to 00z. Ample
instability and moisture advection through the night actually
suggests the potential for thunderstorm development well into the
night. Confidence on timing and occurrence of this is too low to
include in the TAF attm.

For dtw... For metro the more probable time period for thunderstorms
development is between 21z and 00z. Increasing low level moisture
during the course of the afternoon will support some sub 5000 ft
cloud development.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

* low in thunderstorm potential this afternoon and tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 349 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
discussion...

the short story is that a strong subtropical ridge will build
eastward into the great lakes through the day bringing several days
of very hot and humid weather with multiple rounds of convection
possible. Temperatures will rise into the 90s with dewpoints
increasing into the 70s resulting in heat indices ranging from 95 to
110f which has necessitated the issuance of heat warnings and
advisories across SE mi which will begin today at noon and run
through Saturday evening.

The long story is not as clear cut. The high confidence players in
the forecast begin with the strong subtropical ridge which has
consistently been advertised to build to around 590dam at 500mb
Friday and Saturday. A warm front will lift through this
afternoon evening which will usher in a warm and moist airmass which
again has consistently shown 850mb temps hovering around 23c and
dewpoints climbing into the mid 70s. This alone will produce the
elevated heat indices mentioned above. The late arrival of the warm
front today will limit heat indices today to maxes around 100f which
are just touching advisory criteria. The high dewpoints will limit
nocturnal relief keeping to muggy conditions around and priming each
new day leading to increased heat humidity on Friday into Saturday
with heat indices across a portion of SE mi, roughly along and south
of the i69 corridor, reaching 105-110f which is warning criteria.

As is typical with this summer pattern, nocturnal development of
mcs's complicate the forecast on several levels. First with pop wx
trends, second with cloud cover, and third with how each of the
preceding will effect the temperatures and heat indices (hence the
headlines). The first MCS has begun to develop across northern ia
and model consensus tracks this complex east toward lake mi and
turns it southeastward. Question still remains as to how it will
hold together as it nears SE mi with most cams dissipating the
system as it reaches us. Timing of this system would bring it into
se mi beginning around 16-18z with it exiting around 22z. Whether it
holds together or starts dying, it could get a boost from the
diurnal cycle helping it to keep going. Therefore will keep a chance
of thunderstorms in the forecast to account for this. MLCAPE will
reach 1500-2000 j kg in advance of this MCS with shear increasing to
30-40 knots so strong to severe storms will be possible. Pwats
increasing to around 2 inches will again bring about concerns for
heavy rainfall and potential flooding, especially considering the
possibility of multiple rounds of storms in the coming days.

A frontal boundary will then stall across mid mi keeping the hot
unstable airmass across southern mi overnight through early
Saturday. Several additional midlevel wave and convectively induced
waves are then forecast to track along this boundary Thursday night
through Saturday. This will keep chances of storms in the forecast
although a cap building northward across the area Friday will try to
keep the bulk of the activity across central northern mi but with so
many waves and outflow boundaries to help spark convection it's hard
to write it off all together. The front, likely cloud cover and
higher potential for storms is what led to slightly less oppressive
conditions across the saginaw valley and northern thumb, thus we
went with a heat advisory vs the warning for them.

The stalled front will finally get forced southward Saturday with a
stronger cold front Saturday passing southward Saturday evening.

This will allow the heat headlines to come to an end. Northerly flow
behind the fronts will push the hot and humid airmass south bringing
a drier airmass with dewpoints in the 60s by Sunday and 50s to start
the new week. Temperatures should be back to around normal in the
low 80s. High pressure should produce a few dry days to start the
week before the next trough approaches mid week.

Marine...

winds on the lakes will veer to the south-southwest today as high
pressure exits to the east of the region. A warm front will advance
from west to east across the lakes late this afternoon into tonight.

This front will bring an influx of humid and unstable air to the
region and will provide a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

The south-southwest gradient will strengthen during the day on
Friday. Strong over-lake stability will likely keep wind
speeds gusts below 15 knots, with perhaps a little stronger gusts
over the warmer nearshore waters. The chance for strong to severe
storms will persist into the day Friday, especially across lake
huron. A cold front will sink south across lake huron on Saturday,
with post frontal northwest winds occuring in its wake. The front is
forecast to continue to advance southward late Saturday and Saturday
night, arriving into the northern ohio valley by Sunday morning.

This front will be the focus for additional rounds of strong to
severe thunderstorms.

Hydrology...

an influx of hot, humid and very unstable air will arrive into
southern michigan today with the arrival of a warm front and will
persist across the area into Saturday before a cold front sweeps
across the area late Saturday Saturday night. This airmass, combined
with multiple fronts outflow boundaries is likely to support rounds
of thunderstorms over the next three days. Although there remains a
good degree of uncertainty with respect to timing of the convection,
the most probable time periods for thunderstorms appear to be from
this afternoon into Friday morning and again Saturday and Saturday
night. Due to the very high atmospheric moisture content, torrential
rainfall will be associated with any thunderstorm that develops. The
likelihood of brief but intense rainfall rates suggests a threat for
localized flooding over the next three days, with total rainfall
amounts in excess of two inches possible in regions that experience
more frequent and or longer duration thunderstorm activity.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Heat advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt Saturday for miz047>049-
053>055.

Excessive heat warning from noon today to 8 pm edt Saturday for
miz060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi75 min S 8 G 9.9 85°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi75 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 75°F1013.2 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 21 mi57 min 79°F 71°F1013.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi57 min 83°F 1013 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi57 min SSW 6 G 8.9 84°F 1013 hPa64°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi55 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 80°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi82 minSSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds84°F64°F53%1013.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi79 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F52%1013.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi80 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F63°F50%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE6NE7
G15
NE6N8E8E7NE7NE6NE5N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S5SW8SW8
1 day agoSW7SW55S6CalmSE4CalmSW7NW3S5CalmSW6SW5SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE4NW3
2 days agoS9S6S10
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SW13S8S7S10S5S4S5S3SW3SW6W4SW3SW4SW3S5S7SW10SW4SW7SW12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.