St. Clair Shores, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Clair Shores, MI

June 21, 2024 11:05 PM EDT (03:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 8:34 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 939 Am Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Rest of today - Light and variable winds. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tonight - Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the evening - .then becoming light and variable after midnight becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms - .then mostly clear in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 220257 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1057 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon/evening, with damaging winds being the main hazard.

- Hot and humid through Saturday. High temperatures 85-90 today and 90-95 on Saturday, as heat indices peak out just under 100 degrees for Saturday.

AVIATION

An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible overnight, but overall convective potential remains minimal as greater nocturnal stability gains traction with time. Attention overnight turns to prospects of fog development as winds lighten and saturation improves at the surface. mbS appears the most susceptible to a meaningful visibility restriction in fog, but any location may witness a brief dip in visibility during the pre-dawn hours. A northward advancing frontal zone will offer renewed focus for shower and thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon, particularly across central lower Mi including the mbS area. Forecast will offer a tsra mention at mbS/FNT, with diminishing potential with southward extent from this corridor.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Greater potential for thunderstorms will focus north of the airspace Saturday afternoon and evening. An approaching cold front may bring renewed potential late Saturday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms impacting the airspace Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

DISCUSSION...

Scattered convection has begun firing this afternoon across central/southern MI which will continue through this evening as diffuse shortwave energy transits the area atop the lingering stalled frontal boundary. Overall environment remains the same from prior days with MLCAPEs between 1000-1500 J/kg and mediocre shear aob 25kts resulting in a continuation of pulse-type convection with isolated damaging downbursts possible. With PW at 1.72" from the 12Z DTX RAOB sounding, locally heavy rainfall is likely beneath any thunderstorm especially given the slower storm speeds as background flow is 30kts or less through ~400mb. Any lingering convection still expected to taper off around 03Z early tonight as instability wanes and shortwave energy vacates.

Stalled frontal boundary that has lingered over southern lower MI the past couple days is forced back north tonight in response to developing surface low pressure over the north-central Plains. While associated shower and thunderstorm activity initially holds north of the CWA Saturday morning, shortwave energy/mid-upper height falls reaches SE MI by Saturday afternoon likely resulting in a southern expansion of ongoing activity over northern lower MI into areas along/north of I-69. Favorable diurnal timing with SBCAPEs around 1000 J/kg and slightly better kinematic profiles (relative to previous days) as bulk shear tops out around 30-35kts supports the potential for scattered, more organized thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible within this activity particularly over the Tri-Cities/Thumb with isolated damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard. Given the boundary looking to hang out near the Saginaw Valley, can't completely rule out the chance for an isolated brief tornado though forecast hodographs are fairly marginal. Moisture rich environment also supports heavy downpours likely leading to locally heavy rainfall, see hydrology for more information. Low pressure eventually tracks somewhere over central to northern lower MI late Saturday-Sunday driving a respectable cold front across SE MI through the overnight hours into Sunday morning. This timing falls solidly within the diurnal minimum for instability limiting severe potential with model guidance all generally favoring a gradually decaying line of showers and thunderstorms moving across the area.
Shortwave clears the region by midday/early afternoon Sunday ending further rain chances.

For the southern portions of SE MI which likely miss out on afternoon-evening rain, persistent deep layer southwest flow in advance of the approaching cold front pushes 850mb to into the upper teens to near 20C. Highs in the low to mid 90s look likely though with dewpoints generally holding in the upper 60s, heat indices remain sub-advisory between 95-98F.

Upper trough slides over the Great Lakes Monday allowing 850mb temps to fall to 10-12C (down from 18-20C on Saturday) keeping highs in the lower to mid 80s. Cooldown is shortlived as troughing is replaced by induced ridging in advance of another upper trough beginning to dig south out of the Canadian Prairie. This allows southwest flow to redevelop in the lower levels pushing 850mb temps back into the upper teens with Tuesday highs returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Aforementioned trough arrives over the Great Lakes midweek bringing the next chances for widespread showers and storms.

MARINE...

Generally high pressure spread across the region keeping a hot and stable airmass in place through Saturday. A stalled weak front will remain across the southern Great Lakes helping to touch off scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Then the pattern gets a little more progressive offering some mid level support for more organized and frequent storms Saturday across much of Lake Huron.
The hot air will help minimizing wave heights through Saturday outside of any thunderstorm wind gusts. A more organized low pressure system will pass through the northern Michigan Saturday night pulling a cold front through the region on Sunday likely resulting in more widespread convection and wind speeds then could reach or exceed 25 knots with waves building to around 4 feet. Small craft advisories may be needed.

HYDROLOGY...

A moist and moderately unstable airmass holds in place today with scattered thunderstorms continuing through this evening. These storms will be capable of producing highly localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches in less than 3 hours due to their slow movement. This amount of rain would result in urban/low lying flooding.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible over areas along/north of I-69 Saturday afternoon-evening. With an unchanged airmass, locally heavy rainfall is likely from these storms with rainfall rates near or in excess of 2 inches per hour. Additional showers and storms work across the area overnight Saturday as a cold front crosses the area. This activity likely weakens through the night resulting lower totals- rain amounts between 0.1-0.5 inches generally favored.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi65 minN 4.1G4.1 76°F 30.13
AGCM4 21 mi47 min 72°F 67°F30.09
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi47 min 69°F 30.08
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi47 minN 6G7 68°F 30.0965°F
PBWM4 43 mi47 min 68°F 30.08
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi65 minENE 5.1G7 79°F 30.0875°F


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI 8 sm12 minESE 0310 smClear75°F72°F89%30.11
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI 9 sm10 minNE 0310 smA Few Clouds73°F72°F94%30.07
CYQG WINDSOR,CN 15 sm65 minvar 029 smA Few Clouds75°F72°F89%30.12
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI 16 sm10 minNW 0310 smClear73°F72°F94%30.13
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Wind History graph: DET
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Detroit, MI,




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