Wednesday, April8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 2:02 PM EDT (18:02 UTC) Moonrise 8:02PMMoonset 6:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 356 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon. Partly Sunny with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202004082015;;752552 FZUS63 KDTX 080756 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 356 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 29.80 inches, briefly expands across the region from the eastern Plains today before the next low pressure system arrives tonight. This system brings a much stronger cold front and the potential for northwest gales by Thursday. LCZ460-082015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 081730 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

AVIATION.

VFR conditions and light northwest to west winds prevail this afternoon into the early evening as weak high pressure passes through the region. Higher moisture content and cloud cover fill back in during the evening as a cold front moves in from the west. Ceilings lower below 5kft tonight with a chance for several hours of MVFR, as well as a period of light to moderate showers with frontal passage. Limited instability will keep thunder chances low enough to preclude a mention in the TAFs at this time. Cool northwest post- frontal flow takes over on Thursday with wind speeds increasing to about 20 kt by the late morning - gusts approaching 30 kt for a brief period in the afternoon. Typical cold-advection stratocumulus is expected with any broken ceilings expected to occur generally in the 3kft to 6kft range.

For DTW . A shift from light NW/W wind to S around 00z as an inverted surface trough passes overhead, then back to NW around 05z as the cold front moves through. Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft expected through the early evening. Rain is expected to begin after 03z with ceilings falling to MVFR shortly after.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 ft between 03z and 10z.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

DISCUSSION .

Today will be the last day of the warm stretch of weather we've been experiencing for several days now. The split flow pattern briefly goes zonal today in the wake of last nights system with westerly flow preventing much in the way of moderation to the resident airmass. 850mb temps will once again hover around the mid single digits (C) today with a slight boost late in the afternoon with a slight backing to southwest flow ahead of cold front set to drop through the region tonight. After a good deal of stratus overnight due to cold advection, weak area of high pressure and deep boundary layer mixing should erode the cloud field and allow for afternoon sun. Highs will reach into the low to mid 60s.

Rain showers will return late this evening into tonight as a northern stream trough send a cold front down through the Great Lakes. A pretty strong surface low will track across central Ontario tied to the mid level vort max with the front draped down into the Mid MS Valley. Models hint as a second wave and vort max digging into the Ohio Valley to our west which will spin up a second surface low along the front which will progress south and east along the instability gradient. Little to no instability is present over southern MI as it was all washed southward with last nights activity thus will continue to leave out thunder mention.

Thursday will be a windy day as a tight pressure gradient sets up over the region in the wake of the strong cold front. Westerly cold advection will result in steep low level lapse rates and deep boundary layer mixing extending up to around 7kft per the NAM/GFS. Forecast soundings show a deep layer of winds in the 30 knot range through that layer. With the lack of a strong low level jet to try to mix into, it appears our gust potential will be capped in the 30- 40 mph range for the most part. The cold advection and steep lapse rates will also likely set off a period of afternoon showers. The added cloud cover will work against deeper mixing and gust potential, but at the same time should mention any more robust shower could bring a gust over 40 mph to the surface.

The front will mark the end of the warm stretch with broad troughing setting up through about Saturday. High pressure over the plains and the the low just to our east will set up northerly flow into the region with 850mb temps dropping into the negative single digits. Highs will be held in the 40s Thursday and Friday before slowly moderating Saturday and Sunday as the pattern shifts east allowing heights to rise.

MARINE .

High pressure briefly builds into the region from the Plains today before the next round of showers arrives later this evening ahead of a cold front. An area of low pressure moving across northern Ontario will pull this strong cold front through the eastern Lakes tonight. A tight gradient and cold advection may result in northwest gales Thursday into Friday. Below normal temperatures move in with harsh marine conditions expected until high pressure arrives to start the weekend on Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . TF DISCUSSION . DRK MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi62 min Calm G 8.9 53°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 21 mi50 min 64°F 41°F1005.9 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi50 min 62°F 1005.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi50 min ENE 6 G 8 45°F 1005.8 hPa42°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi62 min SSW 9.9 G 9.9 56°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi69 minW 1010.00 miFair65°F42°F43%1006.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi66 minW 10 G 1610.00 miFair65°F44°F48%1006.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi67 minW 1210.00 miFair64°F41°F43%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE44E4E5E8E6N3N9
G27
SE9NE8CalmCalmN5NW5N7N8N7W3NW6NW54NW9W10NW9
G17
1 day agoSE7SE7SE5SE5SE6SE7SE5E4S5S5S3S3W4CalmCalmSE5CalmS7E3SE3E4E3E4E3
2 days agoNE3N6S7SE6E9E8E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3--SE5SE5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.