Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:16 PM CDT (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 6:02AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Wed Jul 17 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy dense fog early in the afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south after midnight, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..South wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
LMZ646 Expires:201907172200;;202534 FZUS53 KMKX 171605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-172200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 171508 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1008 am cdt Wed jul 17 2019

Update
Low clouds are hugging the shoreline of lake michigan this
morning. There are areas of dense fog over lake michigan.

Thunderstorms over western iowa are expected to slide southeast
and miss southern wi this afternoon. The round of thunderstorms of
our concern should begin to develop between the twin cities and
duluth early this evening and track southeast through wi overnight
into Thursday morning. Some of the 12z meso models are suggesting
that the focus for the stronger storms might be more across
northern wi overnight, but most bring at least some rain to
southern wi.

Marine
Dense fog advisory remains in effect over the lake through 1 pm,
but we will monitor trends via satellite to see if it needs to
get extended through the night. Increasing southerly winds will
develop over lake michigan overnight which will help to diminish
the fog. A round of thunderstorms is expected to cross the lake
late tonight into Thursday morning and strong wind gusts are
possible.

Gusty southwest winds may approach small craft advisory criteria
for the nearshore of southeast wi Thursday afternoon and Friday.

Another round of storms is possible over the north half of the
lake Thursday night and again Friday night.

Prev discussion (issued 634 am cdt Wed jul 17 2019)
update...

no major changes to the forecast with clouds mostly moving out
this morning with likely chances for storms this evening and
overnight.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

there are some spots that are seeing some fog but it mostly
remains isolated this morning. Clouds should move mostly out of
the area this morning bringing the Sun out. However into the
evening and overnight clouds will move back in as storms approach
from the west. These storms will have the potential to be severe,
especially further to the west. This will cause some concerns for
temporary periods of heavy rain reducing visibilities. Otherwise,
the region should remain mostly inVFR for the period.

Prev discussion... (issued 421 am cdt Wed jul 17 2019)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

This morning should be mostly dry to start with clouds pushing
out. This should allow us to warm up to the mid to upper 80s
during the day. There will be a slight chance for a few weak
storms to develop in the afternoon along the lake breeze, but
generally it should remain dry during this period.

Into the evening and especially the overnight period we will
likely see some storms, with a few possibly becoming severe.

However, the timing and available CAPE may limit this risk
somewhat. During this period, storms will develop along the warm
front being aided by strong WAA from the fairly strong LLJ just
off to the west. Storms will move east southeast across
southwestern wisconsin with 2000-3000 j kg of MUCAPE and upwards
of 40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. This would be enough for a few
severe storms with hail and wind the main threats.

In addition to the severe threat, there will be concerns for
training convection and thus some flooding, primarily across
southwest wisconsin. While there remains uncertainty with this
system, pwats look to be around 2 inches, with storms likely to
propagate southwest along the warm front. Cams seem to support
the idea of training storms, though the better flooding potential
will be further west, given the better timing for storms pushing
through.

Thursday through Friday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Enough confidence with temperatures and heat index values from
midday Thursday through Friday evening to issue a heat advisory
for the entire forecast area.

There is still some uncertainty with how long any clouds will
linger from the exiting convection Thursday morning. However, it
won't take much Sun to quickly warm up temperatures, even if it
does not occur until midday. So, felt confident enough to issue
the heat advisory starting at noon cdt Thursday.

925 mb temperatures from models, as well as looking at model
certainty trends, suggest highs in the lower 90s for Thursday, and
middle to upper 90s for Friday. Gusty southwest winds are expected
each day, which may lower dew points a little from currently
forecast. However, still expect heat index values to reach 100 to
106 Thursday afternoon, and 103 to 110 Friday afternoon. Given
these values, Friday will have the bigger impact. Record highs at
milwaukee and madison may be reached on Friday. Record high
minimums may be reached as well.

Mainly small chances for showers and storms remain Thursday
afternoon and night, as the low level jet remains pointed into the
area. Anything that develops would be elevated, and there is
decent elevated CAPE with decent deep layer bulk shear. Spc
marginal risk lingers Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, and
again mainly Friday night across the area. Friday night may see
showers and storms approach from the northwest, as a cold front
moves toward the area. Area may be capped, so some uncertainty on
how widespread any showers and storms will be Friday night.

Long term...

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is low.

A fair amount of uncertainty lingers for this period. The models
are having a tough time finding agreement on trends. Generally
speaking, the cold front may stall over or near the area Saturday
into Saturday night, before a low pressure system moves across
southern wisconsin or northern illinois Sunday. The timing and
placement of these features remains in flux, so will maintain
blended model pops and temperatures for now.

This uncertainty also leads to less confidence with heat concerns
for Saturday, as clouds and possible convection may limit highs
quite a bit. Lowered highs a little for now, which keeps heat
index values remaining in the middle to upper 90s. Cooler highs in
the 80s for Sunday with the passing low and precipitation look
reasonable.

Sunday night through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are in decent agreement with showing cold air advection
later Sunday into Sunday night Monday, which should bring back
more seasonable temperatures to the region. High pressure should
then bring quiet weather for the first part of next week.

Aviation(09z TAF updates)...

there may be some patchy fog this morning, though vsbys are not
expected to be impacted much.VFR conditions are expected
throughout the day today, with light and variable winds this
morning turning southerly by the afternoon. Into the evening and
overnight hours storms are expected to push in from the west,
bringing potential for temporary vsby restrictions and some lower
clouds. The best chances for stronger storms will be further west.

Marine...

dense fog advisory remains in effect over the lake, with some
dense fog expected to persist through much of the morning hours
before dissipating. Winds will remain fairly light and variable
throughout the day, with winds turning to the south by the
afternoon and strengthening a bit, especially in the northern
half of the lake where gusts could reach 20-25 kts. Otherwise,
showers storms are expected primarily across the southern half of
the lake by the early morning hours on Thursday, possibly
bringing some stronger gusts.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Heat advisory from noon Thursday to 11 pm cdt Friday for wiz046-
047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for lmz080-261-
362-364-366-563-565-567-643>646-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Ark
Thursday through Tuesday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi77 min ESE 7 G 8 73°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.6)
45187 11 mi17 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F
45186 13 mi17 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 77°F 69°F
45174 30 mi17 min E 3.9 G 5.8 1012.2 hPa (+1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi27 min NE 9.9 G 9.9 67°F
FSTI2 40 mi137 min ENE 1.9 78°F
45013 43 mi47 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 67°F1 ft1014.7 hPa
OKSI2 44 mi137 min SE 1 G 2.9 81°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi27 min E 5.1 G 5.1 77°F 75°F
45177 46 mi137 min 73°F
CNII2 48 mi17 min ENE 5.1 79°F 71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi24 minE 810.00 miFair85°F75°F72%1013.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi22 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds83°F71°F67%1012.7 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi24 minESE 710.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1014.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi42 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F73°F71%1013.9 hPa

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Last 24hrNW64S6CalmSE6SE8S6SE7S4S3S3S3W4CalmW3W3CalmNW5NW4NW4CalmCalmE8E8
1 day agoW12
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2 days agoE8E8E11E12E11E8SE7SE5E7SE5E3SE3S4CalmCalmS4SW5SW6W10W12W11W11W9SW12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.