Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:15PM Saturday March 28, 2020 12:16 PM CDT (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..East wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog through the day. Chance of rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Rain likely and a chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East wind 15 to 20 knots veering south late in the evening, then becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight veering southwest early in the morning. Areas of dense fog through around midnight. Showers with Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots early in the afternoon, then veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots easing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots late in the evening, then becoming west 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight veering northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202003282200;;203986 FZUS53 KMKX 281605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-282200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 281412 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 912 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

UPDATE.

Our break in the rain this morning has moved in, but rain and thunderstorms will move back in from the southwest this afternoon. Will be analyzing observations and incoming guidance this morning for an update on the severe potential for the late afternoon/evening.

MARINE.

Watching fog trends this morning, if fog expands over the lake a Marine Dense Fog Advisory will be needed. Low pressure centered over central Kansas will move northeast today and into central Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Easterly winds will increase today across the Lake and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the nearshore waters. Then winds increase and shift to the southwest then west tonight into Sunday as the low pushes east and gales will be possible, mainly for the southern half of the Lake, early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. A Gale Warning will be in effect Sunday for the southern half of the lake. Sunday night winds shift to the northwest and diminish Monday as high pressure sets up over the area.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 636 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020)

UPDATE .

Showers and thunderstorms have persisted over our southeastern counties this morning producing 0.5 to around an inch of rainfall already. Will likely see showers continue through the morning but are expected to diminish mid to late morning. The surface low will deepen and occlude as it pushes northeast, firing off another round of shower and thunderstorms across southern WI later this afternoon/evening with a slim chance for a strong thunderstorm or two. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

A few showers will linger through the morning, but are expected to dwindle later this morning before redeveloping as the deepening surface low approaches the region this afternoon/evening. Can't rule out a stronger storm or two at this time. Other than the off and on showers/thunderstorm chances today, main concern will be the low ceilings and fog. Easterly flow off the lake will help keep the lower ceilings around into the afternoon, especially around our eastern terminals, but stronger winds should help keep visibility above 2 miles. Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower as the showers and thunderstorms redevelop. Later this evening, a stronger low-level jet pushes into the region and wind shear will be a concern mainly between 00z-06z overnight. Otherwise, northwesterly winds will develop, helping ceiling lift a bit but likely to remain at or below MVFR levels.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 449 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today and Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Low ceilings and fog with visibilities generally above 1 mile continue to plague the region this morning. Combined with periods of off and on showers and easterly winds off the lake, can expect these conditions to continue through the morning and even into the afternoon. Will also likely see a lull in shower activity later this morning as we lose synoptic scale lift ahead of the approaching low, allowing for the environment to possible recover a bit.

The main focus today will be on the afternoon/evening (between 4 pm and 10 pm CDT) potential for some strong/severe thunderstorms. The surface low centered over western KS this morning will lift to the northeast through the day. By the afternoon, it is progged to deepen to around 990 mb as it pushes into IA. Around the same time the cold front will catch up with the warm front and the low occludes. Depending on the timing and location of this occlusion as well as how far north the warm front makes it will be a major factor in the severe potential across southern WI.

Although 0-6km bulk shear exceeding 60kts, 0-3km SRH around 300-500 m^2/s^2, steep mid-level lapse rates, ample moisture with dewpoints climbing near 50 degrees, and lift from the approaching low sets up over southern WI, the more favorable environment for more widespread severe weather looks to remain south of the WI border in northern IL/eastern IA with the greater instability in the warm sector of this system. However, models are hinting at a brief window where a tongue of MUCAPE between 500-750 J/kg makes it into the area this evening just ahead of the occluded front, which could support a strong to severe thunderstorm or two with large hail/gusty winds mainly across the southwest corner of the CWA. Several hi-res CAMs have shown a similar scenario, but they tend to be a bit bullish, especially for us being on the fringe of everything.

Overall, confidence is not real high for strong/severe storms across our CWA as synoptic systems have trended south this season and most of the models prog the warm front remaining just to our south. Additionally, the easterly winds off the cooler lake will likely limit destabilization of the environment this afternoon/evening. Nonetheless, there still remains a potential for a few stronger thunderstorms and it bears watching on how things shape up through the day.

In addition to the thunderstorms today, rainfall will be another issue to contend with. Given saturated grounds and storm total rainfall around 1 inch through tonight may result in some localized flooding and rises on area river, especially in areas with any stronger/training convection that may develop.

Sunday through Tuesday . Forecast confidence medium.

The occluded low will track from west central WI into srn Ontario for Sun-Sun nt. Cool, windy, and showery conditions are expected on Sunday with the low's passage. Brisk wly winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph. The strongest winds will be from MKE swd to IL with at least a possibility of Wind Advisory conditions occurring.

Clouds will linger at least over ern WI on Mon with cool temps continuing, but milder temps over south central WI where some sunshine may occur. A north to south sfc ridge will then take hold over WI and Lake MI for late Monday lasting into Wed AM. Lgt nnely winds and slightly cool temps will prevail.

LONG TERM . Wednesday through Friday . Forecast confidence medium.

A large and slow moving upper trough from Canada will approach for Wed aft-nt, and move across the area for Thu-Fri. This will bring more clouds and temps slightly on the cool side, along with chances for showers.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Continue to see on and off showers with an occasional rumble of thunder across the area this morning. Low clouds and fog are expected to continue, particulary toward Lake Michigan. The persistent easterly winds off the lake could maintain these conditions into the afternoon. May see a brief break in the precip later this morning into the afternoon, before another round of showers/thunderstorms move through later this afternoon and evening as the surface low approaches. Precip chances and low clouds will still be possible through the end of the period. Additionally, with a strong low level jet moving into the area this evening, will likely see some low level wind shear develop as well.

MARINE .

An area of low pressure sitting over the Central Plains will strengthen as it moves northeast into central Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Easterly winds will increase today across the Lake and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the nearshore waters. Then winds increase and shift to the southwest then west tonight into Sunday as the low pushes east and gales will be possible, mainly for the southern half of the Lake, early Sunday morning into Sunday evening before the pressure gradient weakens Sunday night. Thus, a Gale Warning is now in effect. Otherwise, northwesterly winds are expected Sunday night into Monday and diminish as high pressure sets up over the area.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LMZ080-643>646- 669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ645-646.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ643-644.



Update . RAH Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Sunday THROUGH Friday . Gehring


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi17 min E 1 G 1.9 41°F 1007.1 hPa (-1.0)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi27 min N 8.9 G 9.9 39°F
OKSI2 44 mi77 min E 1.9 G 4.1 44°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi57 min S 5.1 G 5.1 41°F 41°F
CNII2 48 mi17 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 44°F 42°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi24 minE 60.50 miFog46°F44°F93%1007 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi22 minE 41.50 miFog/Mist44°F43°F96%1006.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi24 minENE 51.00 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1007.9 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi22 minENE 57.00 miOvercast45°F44°F97%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E11E9E9NE11E10NE13NE12E15E14NE5E10NE8SE6SE10NE7NE9N6NE17E12E13E11E9E6
1 day agoNE10
G17
E7NE8NE11NE10NE10N10N10N5N9N10NE10N5NE7NE8N7NE5N7NE3E5E11E8E10NE12
2 days agoSW9
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S8S6S7S8SW6SW7SW7W10W6W6W8NW6NE7
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.