Monday, July13, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:30PM Monday July 13, 2020 10:01 PM CDT (03:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:44AMMoonset 1:51PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 906 Pm Cdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon backing southeast late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202007141000;;810508 FZUS53 KMKX 140207 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-141000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 140149 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 849 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

UPDATE.

Temperatures will continue to slowly fall through the 70s this evening, with quiet conditions expected overnight.

MARINE.

High pressure will shift into Lower Michigan tonight, while a trough of low pressure begins to approach from the Central Plains. This will bring gusty south winds to the lake on Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory may eventually be needed for areas north of Milwaukee Tuesday afternoon and evening, as waves approach 4 feet. Across the open waters, expect gusts up to about 25 knots.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night and through most of Wednesday, ahead of a slow moving cold front which will move through the lake on Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the region on Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 629 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020)

UPDATE .

A lake breeze will continue to march westward this evening, knocking temps down a few degrees in its wake. Otherwise, it should be a quiet evening and overnight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

Light south to southeast winds this evening will give way to generally light and variable winds overnight. On Tuesday, look for south winds to become gusty by mid morning, continuing into the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will begin to form late tomorrow afternoon west of the terminals, but dry conditions are expected through at least 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight and Tuesday - Confidence . Medium to High

Mid level and surface ridging dominate tonight. Diurnally driven CU field will dissipate with the loss of heating. Lake breeze has brought corridor of clear air westward from the lake. The surface and mid level ridging shifts eastward into Tuesday. We will see the southerly flow increase tapping into some higher moisture. With the mid level flow becoming more wsw some vorticity will be drawing closer to northwestern fringes of the area as the day wears on. The northeast/southwest lower level convergence zone is proggd to remain to the northwest of the area so some of the slower solutions on precip advancement have some merit.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday Night through Sunday Night . Forecast confidence is moderate to low.

A cold front will slowly sink southeastward Tuesday night. Storms in the west may be potentially severe, but will likely decrease in strength and coverage as they approach southern WI overnight. The front will slow, and then as a 500mb shortwave approaches from the west Wednesday morning, convection will likely perk up again for a second round during the afternoon on Wednesday. High pressure will then build in behind the system and dry conditions out for Thursday.

Friday into the weekend, a large-scale ridge should build in and allow for warmer temperatures. The GFS has consistently been holding off on higher temperatures (95+), but the ECMWF has been flip- flopping on temperatures, having them skyrocketing into the mid to upper 90s with one run and then trending back toward the GFS with the other. We'll continue to watch the heat potential for this upcoming weekend. One thing that is consistent is the possibility for intermittent t-storm activity for S WI as complexes form and ride the top of the ridge.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for WIZ052-060.

LM . None.

Update . Boxell Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . Boxell Tuesday Night through Monday . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 11 mi21 min S 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 73°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi61 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 72°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.4)
45174 30 mi11 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 75°F1 ft1015.7 hPa65°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi21 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F
45013 43 mi61 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 71°F1 ft1016 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi31 min SE 8 G 8.9 73°F 66°F
CNII2 48 mi16 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 71°F 62°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi68 minSE 510.00 miFair71°F63°F76%1015.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi66 minSE 410.00 miFair70°F63°F79%1014.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi68 minSSE 610.00 miFair71°F63°F76%1016 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi66 minN 010.00 mi69°F63°F82%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W4CalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE3E5E9SE9SE10E10SE7SE8SE5SE4
1 day agoCalmW4SW3W4NW4NW4NE11NE8NE8N9
G17
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G17
NE9N10
G18
E7NE8E7E11E10E10N7NE8NE4CalmCalm
2 days agoW6W6W7NW8W6W5NW4NW6NW6NW6W8W7W8W11
G19
W12W9W8W10W8W7W7W6SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.