Sunday, October20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:03PM Sunday October 20, 2019 4:19 PM CDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:06PMMoonset 1:43PM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Through early evening..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then veering southeast 10 to 20 knots early in the morning. Widespread fog through around midnight. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon veering south late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots rising to 15 to 25 knots after midnight, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots rising to up to 30 knots late in the morning, then becoming southwest up to 30 knots early in the afternoon veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201910210900;;010426 FZUS53 KMKX 202006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-210900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 202012
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
312 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019

Short term
Tonight and Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

Low stratus and fog will pester the lake michigan shoreline into
tonight due to a light onshore breeze. An increase flow developing
tonight, should help to mix that out later on.

A strong fall storm system will move through the upper midwest
tonight through Monday night. The intense surface low will track
from the nebraska south dakota border to the western basin of lake
superior, with an associated occluded front pushing across the
area from late morning through mid afternoon on Monday. We should
see some leading warm air advection showers push in after
midnight, but the more productive precip will be along the front.

There's enough CAPE available to support a few storms as well.

Rainfall will range from 3 4-1 inch west of madison to around 1 2
inch across the southeast.

This storm will be wound up, producing strong winds. The combo of
winds and waves will likely bring some minor lake shore flooding
from milwaukee north toward green bay from mid morning on Monday
through Monday evening. A lakeshore flood advisory has been
issued.

Rain will push across the area Monday morning, diminishing in the
afternoon in the wake of the front that pushes through. Overall,
the forecast hasn't changed from the previous issuance with
respect to timing and rainfall amounts. It will be windy, and that
may be the main story with this system.

Monday night through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Models continue to show the strong but occluded and vertically
stacked low pressure system lingering over western lake superior
Monday night. It gradually moves north of lake superior Tuesday
and toward james bay Tuesday night. Kept chances for showers
going Monday night and Tuesday, with various 500 mb vorticity
maxima rotating through the area. Could see some light snow
showers mix in across northwest parts of the area Tuesday night.

Gusty southwest to west winds are expected Monday night into
Tuesday night, with a tight pressure gradient and good mixing in
the low levels. The strongest gusts should occur on Tuesday, with
30 to 35 knot gusts expected. Cannot rule out a few gusts near
wind advisory criteria of 39 knots, especially near lake michigan.

Will have to watch this potential in later forecasts.

Chilly temperatures are expected with the gusty winds Monday
night into Tuesday night, with highs in the upper 40s Tuesday.

Lows should drop from the 40s Monday night to the 30s Tuesday
night.

Long term
Wednesday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Winds will gradually weaken on Wednesday, as the pressure gradient
weakens. Models then try to bring a weak surface low east across
far northern illinois Wednesday afternoon and early evening per
the ecmwf, or later Wednesday night into Thursday per the gfs. The
gfs is somewhat stronger with the surface low and passing 500 mb
vorticity maximum than the ECMWF as well. Kept blended pops going
for Wednesday into Thursday, until better timing certainty can be
found. Could see light snow showers mix in Wednesday night in
northwest parts of the area.

Thursday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

High pressure moving east across or just south of the region
Thursday night into Friday night should bring drier conditions
into the region. There is more uncertainty for later in the
weekend, with low pressure possibly moving northeast from the
middle mississippi river valley into indiana or ohio. This system
may or may not clip southern wisconsin, but there is too much
uncertainty this far out. Kept blended model pops and temperatures
in this period for now.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)
Lower stratus and some fog lurks along the lakeshore and out over
lake michigan. It will likely push inland once the Sun sets and
things begin to cool down. It will mix out with time as southeast
winds increase ahead of a strong storm system pushing in. Until
that happens, the southeast will be threatened by MVFR and ifr
cigs vsbys. Confidence isn't very high with respect to those cloud
trends.

Shifting the focus to later, we do have a strong storm system
moving in quickly tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
push into the area between about 10-15z Monday with CIGS lowering
to MVFR and ifr levels. Low level wind shear is also likely for a
time Monday morning. Expect strong southeast winds, turning
southwest in the wake of a passing frontal boundary later Monday
afternoon.

Marine
Southeast winds will pick up tonight into Monday ahead of a
strong low pressure system expected to track from nebraska to the
western basin of lake superior tonight through Monday
night, deepening as it heads northeast. The winds will remain
elevated and become south to southwest later Monday into Monday
night, and then westerly by later Tuesday into Wednesday.

A gale warning is in effect for the open waters Monday morning
into early Tuesday night. A small craft advisory is in effect for
the nearshore waters Monday morning through Tuesday night, the a
gale warning runs from Tuesday into Tuesday night. A few gale
force gusts are possible in the nearshore waters on Monday. Winds
will be a little lighter Wednesday, but will remain gusty and out
of the west.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 10 am to 10 pm cdt Monday for
wiz052-060-066.

Lm... Gale warning from 9 am Monday to 1 am cdt Wednesday for lmz080-
261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-
872-874-876-878.

Small craft advisory from 9 am Monday to 7 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz643>646.

Gale warning from 7 am Tuesday to 1 am cdt Wednesday for
lmz643>646.

Dense fog advisory until 10 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>645.

Tonight Monday and aviation marine... Davis
Monday night through Sunday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi20 min SE 4.1 G 7 48°F 1013.5 hPa (-0.4)
45186 13 mi20 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 48°F 51°F1 ft
45174 30 mi30 min E 5.8 G 7.8 52°F1 ft1010.4 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi30 min ESE 9.9 G 12 47°F
45013 43 mi110 min SSE 5.8 G 7.8 46°F 49°F1 ft1013.9 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi30 min E 6 G 7 50°F 50°F
CNII2 48 mi20 min E 2.9 G 8 51°F 47°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi30 minE 610.00 miFair55°F48°F77%1013.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi25 minE 57.00 miFair51°F45°F80%1013.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi27 minESE 66.00 miFair with Haze51°F46°F83%1014.2 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi25 minE 710.00 miFair64°F44°F49%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4E4NE5Calm------------------NW4NW3N5NE3CalmNE3NE4E8--E6
1 day agoSE6SE8SE8SE8SE6------------------S5S7S11
G17
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2 days agoN4NE4E4NE4NE4------------------CalmCalmS5S7SE10SE11S9SE11SE14SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.