Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:20PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 1:27 AM CST (07:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am cst early this morning...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of flurries after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912101000;;126805 FZUS53 KMKX 100707 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-101000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 100539 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1139 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

UPDATE. The freezing drizzle has come to an end north of the MKE metro area. Snow flurries and light snow showers will occur into the early morning hours before ending. Clouds will decrease throughout Tue AM via cold and dry air advection. Cold temps for Tue.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). Cigs of 1-3 kft will gradually become scattered through early Tue AM. VFR conditions for the remainder of the day.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 919 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

UPDATE . Latest radar trends are indicating less freezing drizzle than earlier and this should continue as the column continues to cool rapidly. The back edge of the light snow will exit Sheboygan and Ozaukee Counties between 11 AM and 1130 AM with some flurries afterward. This precipitation is along a sfc trough passage. Another area of flurries will occur over Sauk and Iowa Counties.

MARINE . A Gale Warning is in effect for far srn Lake MI until 08Z Tue. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor until 12Z Tue. Low pressure of 29.2 inches over southwest Quebec will continue northeast across Quebec and deepen to 28.9 inches by late Tuesday morning. West to northwest gales will occur over far southern Lake Michigan into the early morning hours of Tuesday before weakening below gales. Brisk westerly winds will continue into Wednesday but diminish late Wednesday as high pressure of 30.6 inches moves across Lake Michigan.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 548 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

UPDATE . Brisk nwly winds and strong cold advection will continue through the night as the 992 mb low over Lake Huron deepens to 980 mb across Canada tnt-Tue. Temps will fall to the single digits north and west of Madison by sunrise with teens to the east. Wind chill temps will range from 5 above to 10 below zero with the coldest readings north and west of Madison. The strong cold and dry air advection will clear the stratus late tnt into Tue AM.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . Brisk nwly winds for tnt. Stratus of 1-3 kft will gradually become scattered after midnight into the morning daylight hours of Tue. VFR conditions over all of srn WI afterward.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 155 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Rest of this afternoon and Tonight - Confidence . Medium Most intense portion of snow band has resulted in much more impact to our southwest in IA where SQW was issued. Will keep going advisory in place as this band works through, however some decrease in reflectivities noted in parts of the band heading into SC WI. This band will exit quickly to the east late this afternoon or very early this evening with main story becoming potent cold air advection along with evolving refreeze potential. Mild road surface temps will gradually lower to subfreezing values as this colder airmass takes hold overnight. So will be messaging the refreeze idea with the arrival of this much colder airmass.

Tuesday - Confidence . Medium to High Cold airmass will dominate with Bufkit showing considerable drying within the column. Mid level flow remains broadly cyclonic. West/northwest winds will prevail with the very cold and dry air in place.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday Night through Thursday - Confidence . High Arctic air will make its way into the region Tuesday night with temperatures dropping into the single digits and wind chills below zero. Highs Wednesday will mainly be in the teens. Thursday an approaching shortwave trough will help bring warmer temperatures as winds shift to the south. Warm air advection may provide enough lift for a few snow showers, but the best chance will be north of our forecast area. Temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Thursday Night through Monday - Confidence . Medium An active pattern sets up for the end of the week with multiple shortwaves moving through. Timing of these waves will determine precipitation type as temperatures during the day are expected to be above freezing. As we get closer confidence is expected to increase. There is agreement that Sunday will be dry, before rain and snow chances return.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) . Band of snow exits to the east by 23z. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions ahead of arctic front will transition to MVFR overnight with northwest winds/cold air advection taking hold and continuing into Tuesday. Expect some sunshine with overall dry column though some cu possible with broad mid level cyclonic flow persisting.

MARINE . Strong northwest winds will develop behind a cold front and will persist overnight tonight. Going small craft and gale warning looks good. The arrival of a much colder airmass will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning until 2 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ080-675-777-779-876- 878.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Update . Gehring Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . Collar Tuesday Night through Monday . RAR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi27 min W 15 G 20 26°F 1010.5 hPa (+3.4)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi37 min W 21 G 25 26°F 21°F
CNII2 48 mi27 min W 14 G 18 25°F 18°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S7
G10
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G12
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G12
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G9
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G16
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G12
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G22

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi34 minWNW 12 G 2210.00 miOvercast27°F19°F72%1010.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi32 minWNW 10 G 1810.00 miOvercast27°F16°F63%1010.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi34 minW 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast26°F18°F71%1010.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi32 minW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast24°F17°F75%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S4SE4S3SW4SW6SW7SW8SW8SW9SW8SW9W12W12
G22
W11W20
G32
W22
G33
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G31
W22
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NW15
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W12
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NW17
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W12
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1 day agoS13
G24
S16SW19
G24
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SW12SW14SW12
G21
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SW10SW6S6S8SW6SW5CalmE4SE5E5SE4
2 days agoSW3CalmS4SW8SW11SW7S6SW7SW10SW10S13SW9SW11
G20
S10S9S6S6S6S7S7S9S11SW10S14
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.