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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Sun Dec 3 2023
Early this morning..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots. Showers. Patchy fog. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering west late in the morning, then becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Patchy fog until late afternoon. Showers in the morning. Rain showers likely late in the morning, then slight chance of showers early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the evening, then becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of rain and snow through around midnight, then rain likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
wave heights are for ice free areas.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 030853 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 253 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

SHORT TERM
(Issued 300 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Today through Monday:

Main slug of precip coming through right now with the upper levels largely driving the precip. Plenty of PVA at 500mb from the shortwave pushing through in addition to some fairly strong upper level divergence. There is a bit of WAA at 700mb but otherwise forcing is relatively limited in the low to mid levels. Currently much of the area is in the process of changing from rain to snow with snow to the west and north and rain in the south and east.
With respect to the area of highest reflectivity as it continues to slide out, only the far north side has changed to snow, while most of it remains rain.

Overall accumulations have changed a bit with lower overall amounts further west with around a half inch expected and closer to an inch in the far northwest parts of the CWA. This is largely due to lighter reflectivity return to the west suggesting lighter snow though with cooler temps now some accumulation is expected.
However, the main area of concern for higher snowfall amounts is the north side of the slug of precip pushing through SE WI which has changed to snow and rates are good enough to bring decent accums. This is only likely to last for a short period before the lighter rates dominate but this period will be enough to yield an extra 0.5-1.0 inch bringing expected snowtotals in that area to around 1-1.5 inches with perhaps some isolated higher amounts.
This area is mostly central to east central WI (away from the lake) specifically including the Beaver Dam to Juneau to Fond du Lac corridor. The main period for any accumulation is now through around 9am before we start to see temperatures warm up too much for accumulation. Snow may continue to fall over northern/northwestern parts of the CWA but accumulation would not be expected. Overall this system will start to push out later this morning and moving out entirely by the mid afternoon.

Higher pressure will gradually build in behind the exiting system and while the upper level pattern will remain active the moisture will be missing to bring anything to the region through Monday.
However clouds will stick around due to some low to mid level moisture. Quiet conditions will be short-lived as we expect the next system to push in by Monday night.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
(Issued 300 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Monday night through Saturday:

The next system we've been watching in the extended period comes in on Monday evening/overnight and has the potential to produce some minor snow accumulations.

This system is a quick hitter/Alberta Clipper type that pops out of southwest Canada on down through Iowa/northern Illinois Monday night into Tuesday morning. This track is a bit further south than what had been shown the past few days, which means 1)the main precip associated with it will also be a bit further southwest and 2)temperatures should be slightly cooler, meaning p-type should be more snow than rain. 03.00z NAM/GFS show a cooler/well below freezing thermal profile from the surface on up to 800mb when compared to what we currently have going through this morning. The main question is with QPF now as the deeper forcing looks like it will be south of the region. The 03.00z GFS looks to be the most robust with QPF at around 0.20" in some spots, but most guidance shows less than 0.10" falling. With snow to liquid ratios looking to be around 9/1 to 11/1 for this event, expecting about an inch of snow to fall with the high end being around 2" if the GFS scenario plays out.

Beyond that, the main story is with a gradual warming trend toward the end of the week as the low levels go more southwesterly and 850mb go from around -7C Wednesday morning up to +10C by Thursday.
Going into next weekend, guidance has been all over the place with a deep trough and how to handle it. The latest Euro/Canadian keep us dry with the system tracking well east while the GFS clips southeast WI with some precipitation briefly early Saturday. Low confidence with how that all plays out.

Halbach



AVIATION
(Issued 300 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Low IFR/LIFR CIGS will dominate much of southern Wisconsin through the majority of the TAF period with some VSBY restrictions through this morning as a result of rain and/or snow, though lower IFR/LIFR VSBYs will largely just be associated with snow. Snow is expected to be mostly light with accumulations largely around a half inch to an inch with isolated higher amounts in parts of southern WI up to 1.5 inches, especially around the Fond du Lac area. Accumulations will largely end by around 9am today with warmer temperatures likely keeping accumulations to a minimum thereafter. There is some fog out there as well but this too will push out with the precip. Precipitation will end by the early to mid afternoon from southwest WI to east central WI.

While the precip will push out the low CIGS will continue, though some gradual improvement to VFR could be expected from east central WI to the west through tonight into Monday. Winds will gradually turn from northeast to north/northwest through the day today and into tonight.

Kuroski

MARINE
(Issued 300 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023)

Low pressure over southern Lake Michigan will track into the central Great Lakes this morning. Modest east to northeast winds during this period will become north to northwest this afternoon and tonight, as the low moves east of the region. Low pressure is then expected to move from North Dakota to southwest Minnesota Monday, then across southern Lake Michigan Monday night and southeast of the region on Tuesday. Modest winds Monday into Monday night should become north to northwest and increase Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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