Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:00PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 10:02 AM CST (16:02 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 9:48PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Am Cst Tue Jan 28 2020
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of snow showers in the morning. Chance of flurries in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202001281700;;646508 FZUS53 KMKX 281306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-281700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 281124 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 524 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020

UPDATE.

No changes at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

MVFR ceilings remain through the TAF period with areas in southwest Wisconsin under IFR ceilings until mid afternoon. MSN may briefly drop below 1,000 feet late this morning. Expect flurries through most of the day. Northwest winds will become light and variable tonight before shifting to the northeast Wednesday morning. Light snow may impact areas along Lake Michigan, mainly north of MKE, late tonight into Wednesday morning. Areas that see snow could get a light dusting.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 301 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tonight . Forecast Confidence is High .

Clouds today will hang around the dendritic growth zone which may result in some flurries or light snow showers. Best chance will be early this morning as a weak mid-level boundary moves through. There is a slim chance for isolated freezing drizzle, and if any develops some slick spots will be possible. Flurries may linger through the day. As high pressure moves through Ontario winds will shift to the northeast tonight into Wednesday. This will bring a chance for some light lake effect snow showers mainly for Sheboygan and Ozaukee counties. A light dusting of snow is possible.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday and Thursday . Forecast Confidence is Medium to High.

Persistent, light onshore winds will contribute to just enough moisture in the low levels to produce scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries in southeast WI on Wednesday. A light dusting of snow is possible. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough approaching south central WI will bring some increased moisture to the area and therefore, more widespread flurries or perhaps light snow showers for Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Just mentioned flurries for now due to fairly shallow low level moisture in the forecast soundings. Moisture in the mid levels could also contribute to seeder-feeder process to produce snow/flurries.

Temperatures will continue to hover in the upper 20s to lower 30s through this period as skies remain overcast. There is a small chance for some peek of sunshine Thursday afternoon as winds become westerly in the wake of that shortwave.

Friday through Saturday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The next shortwave trough will approach southern WI late Thursday night and slowly move across the Great Lakes. Another shortwave trough will slide in on its heels to bring a prolonged period of light lift over the region. Vorticity advection and deeper moisture will bring our next chance of light snow to the area Friday through Saturday morning. This will likely be off and on show showers/flurries with light accumulations adding up to an inch or two but with melting in between. Temperatures are expected to be mild, with highs in the mid 30s or higher and lows in the upper 20s to around 30.

Sunday through Monday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Northwest flow aloft and eventually some ridging may bring us some sunshine on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are expected to be very mild, with the potential to reach 40. Of course, a trough will follow, so our next chance for precip will be Monday afternoon with a warm front and then a cold frontal passage sometime Tuesday. Both the GFS and ECWMF are showing this right now.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

MVFR conditions will continue with ceilings mainly around 1,500 feet through the day. Some IFR ceilings will linger in southwest Wisconsin until this evening. MSN may briefly drop to IFR between 15Z-18Z. Light winds continue and shift to the north to northeast this evening.

MARINE .

Light winds and low wave heights continue through the week as high pressure lingers over the area. Northwest winds shift to the northeast tonight and continue through most of the week. Stronger southwest winds develop by Friday as a low pressure system moves into the area.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . RAH Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . RAH Wednesday THROUGH Monday . Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi63 min NW 8 G 11 31°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi33 min NNW 6 G 7 31°F 29°F
CNII2 48 mi18 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 33°F 26°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi70 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast32°F24°F73%1019.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi68 minNW 310.00 miOvercast31°F24°F76%1020 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi70 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast31°F23°F72%1020.1 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F24°F84%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KENW

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW5W6NW4NW5NW5NW4NW5NW5NW7N3W4NW4--NW6W4W5NW4W6W7NW7W6W6NW6
1 day agoW10W9W10W11W9W6W8W8W8W6W5W5W6W6NW6NW7NW5NW4NW4NW5NW6NW7NW4NW6
2 days agoW7W8W6W9W9W9W9W7W7W7W7W9W7W8W8W9W9
G18
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.