NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over western and central NY this morning. Valley fog is located across the western Southern Tier and will dissipate by mid-morning.

Surface high pressure sits across the region today. An upper level ridge will move into the central Great Lakes region with increasing subsidence and higher temperatures across the forecast area. Upper level smoke from upstream wildfires may enter the northern tier of the forecast area this afternoon and make for hazy conditions, with no impact on air quality. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s, upper 70s across the higher terrain. Weak lake breezes may keep the southern shore of Lake Ontario a few degrees cooler than further inland.

It will be another night of little to no clouds and calm conditions across the forecast area. Upper level smoke may still be around overnight. Patchy valley fog is possible across the western Southern Tier again. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than previous nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday, a cut-off low over the Atlantic will retrograde towards southern New England. A rex block will form as the upper level ridge moves east and north of the cut-off low. Warmer temperatures will move into the region with surface high pressure remaining across the forecast area. It will be another dry day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. It will feel more humid than previous days as dewpoints climb into the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Dry weather is expected to continue into most of Monday, with a shower or two possible for areas near the NY/PA line for Monday afternoon through the night. High pressure pushing to the east will help maintain mostly dry weather for much of the area through the period. An approaching trough from the west will start to increase the potential for some showers and thunderstorms later Monday night, with the best chance for rain expected across the western Southern Tier. To the east over southern New England, a mid-level low will start to phase with the approaching trough from the west. Depending on timing/placement of the low, this may result in a few showers for eastern portions of the area, but as of now models keep precip more toward eastern NY and New England.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Monday with highs in the low 80s to near 90 from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. Dewpoints for Monday should remain in the low 60s during the day, and slowly increase to the mid 60s Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through this period. Temperatures above normal, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s will keep days humid and nights muggy. Heat index values will near 90F, and lower 90s by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through this period.

A closed Atlantic low will start this period over New England, drifting north/northwestward. Exact track and timing of this closed low is still with uncertainty...which will have ramifications on the timing of the trough/ridge progression the remainder of the week. As such timing showers and thunderstorms will be difficult. Weak, mild flow aloft does not bring an increase potential for severe storms as of yet, though the PWAT values 1.75"+ within this weak flow could yield drenching thunderstorms with potential hydro concerns.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail this morning. Patchy valley fog is located across the western Southern Tier with local IFR. There is a low chance for IFR at KJHW with a better chance of fog in the surrounding valleys early this morning. Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning and VFR conditions will prevail today.
Upper level smoke may move into the region later today resulting in hazy skies, with no obstruction to vsby.

Cloud-free skies and calm conditions will continue tonight.
Patchy valley fog is possible across the western Southern Tier with localized IFR conditions which may impact KJHW late tonight into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog with local IFR possible across the Southern Tier each overnight/early morning.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.

MARINE
Surface high pressure across the Lower Great Lakes today will drift east through the weekend. The resulting light winds and negligible wave action will generally support very nice conditions for recreational boating this weekend...although very light winds on Saturday may be less than ideal for those sailing.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.