Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brocton, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Weakening lake effect snow showers east and east-southeast of the lakes will lift north and fall apart this morning.

2) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Weakening lake effect snow showers east and east- southeast of the lakes will lift north and fall apart this morning.

As of this writing...the lake effect snow band southeast of Lake Ontario has weakened into some remnant lighter snow showers...with only some scattered/disorganized spotty light snow showers found east of Lake Erie. All of this will lift north and fall apart this morning as winds back...the low level flow becomes increasingly sheared
and inversion heights continue to fall
with only some very minor additional accumulations expected. With this in mind...the Winter Weather Advisory and Lake Effect Snow Warning southeast of Lake Ontario have both been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow later this week and weekend.

A strong ridge of high pressure will persist across the southwest CONUS into the weekend before the ridge flattens out by early next week. A mid-level trough will remain across the Northeast with embedded fast moving shortwaves moving across the forecast area and bringing chances for rain and snow showers.

The first shortwave and its attendant low near James Bay will support a low chance of snow showers/flurries beginning later tonight across WNY as warm air advection/isentropic upglide develops along its eastern flank...followed by a more general low chance of light rain or snow showers across the area Thursday. Another wave is expected to move across the region Friday through Friday night and stronger forcing and deeper moisture will support higher chances for rain showers across western NY and rain and snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Due to the quick nature of these waves, precipitation amounts will be on the lighter side.

As the ridge flattens out across the southern CONUS this weekend, another deeper trough is expected to move into the Great Lakes region with the potential for cold airmass into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of this writing...the lake effect snow band southeast of Lake Ontario has weakened into some remnant lighter snow showers and IFR...with only some scattered/disorganized spotty light snow showers found east of Lake Erie. All of this will lift north and fall apart this morning as winds back...the low level flow becomes increasingly sheared...and inversion heights continue to fall. This being said...remnant MVFR/low VFR cloud cover from the lake bands may still cross the KBUF/KIAG terminals between later this morning and midday...and brush the KART terminal around 18z.

Otherwise general VFR conditions will prevail through today...before lowering to lower-end VFR/MVFR tonight as a warm front spreads thickening/lowering clouds across our region
Overnight
a few spotty light snow showers and/or flurries will become possible across far western New York...however these are not currently expected to produce any restrictions to visibility.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with a few scattered rain or wet snow showers.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Winds and waves will largely remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for the rest of the week thanks to a much less active pattern than what we've seen in recent days. The one exception to this will be later tonight and early Thursday across far eastern Lake Ontario where a period of moderately brisk southerlies appears likely...
however the greatest wave action looks to remain confined to Canadian waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.