Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 7:00PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1215 Pm Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots late at night, then veering east toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing southeast. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:201910172115;;850506 FZUS53 KGRR 171615 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1215 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171808
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
208 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 317 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
-frost and freezing conditions likely Friday morning mainly away
from the lakeshore and especially east of us 131
-low risk for some light rain showers Saturday
-showers and thunderstorms looking likely Monday with gusty winds
also expected
-minor lakeshore flooding with some beach erosion possible Tuesday

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 317 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
a frost is likely Friday morning for most areas with a hard
freeze possible especially for rural areas east of us 131 and
especially toward us 127. This may put an end to our remaining
harvest for these locations, but the fruit belt along the
lakeshore may continue to skirt by unscathed from any freezing
conditions. Patchy fog is not impossible Friday morning but is
mainly supported by the nam3km which can have low-level moisture
bias.

Looking at this weekend, we have lowered pops on Saturday due to sfc
ridging trying to build in along with h850 wind speed divergence and
better mid upper level forcing staying well north of our region.

Still can't rule out a few light rain showers especially near and
west of us 131, but they won't amount to much.

The primary system of interest will impact our weather Monday into
Tuesday with deterministic members and many ensemble members
continuing to show a deepening low across the midwest and great
lakes. After arriving along the pacific NW coast Friday into
Saturday, this storm will move east and deepen as it approaches
the great lakes. A closed h500 low is likely to develop across
the upper midwest, placing lower michigan under a vigorous llj
that could be 50-60 kts, advecting substantial moisture (pwats
200%+ of normal) from the gulf of mexico into our region.

If we develop any consequential sfc based instability (definitely
not a given), thunderstorms may develop and tap into significant 0-3
km and 0-6 km shear which could pose a wind damage threat. Outside
of any convective-based wind gusts, the synoptic winds may be
significant on land and lake with 40+ mph gusts once again possible.

Monday is looking like a potential S flow beach erosion setup but
not nearly as bad as what we just went through. Tuesday may shape up
as a wsw flow beach erosion setup with another round of high wave
action that could create some minor lakeshore flooding and
additional dune bluff erosion.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 207 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019
stratocu will scatter out tonight leading to partly cloudyVFR
skies.

Marine
Issued at 317 am edt Thu oct 17 2019
the SCA will continue until 00z tonight with mainly 3 to 6 ft
waves expected. The lake finally calms down Friday but the
reprieve is brief, as another SCA will be needed Saturday as S sw
winds increase, generating waves of 3 to 6 ft once again. Sunday
should be a favorable day for marine activities. Rough waters are
expected Monday into Tuesday with high wave action returning.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Frost advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt Friday for
miz037-038-043-044-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz844>846.

Synopsis... Hoving
discussion... Hoving
aviation... 04
marine... Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi62 min NNW 17 G 20 49°F 58°F1014.8 hPa42°F
45029 10 mi34 min NNW 16 G 19 50°F 57°F2 ft1015.7 hPa41°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi44 min WNW 17 G 20 50°F
45168 27 mi34 min W 14 G 16 50°F 70°F3 ft1016.6 hPa39°F
45161 30 mi44 min N 14 G 16 47°F 47°F1015.5 hPa (+0.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi44 min N 12 G 15 49°F 1016.2 hPa (-0.4)42°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi44 min NW 12 G 14
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 49 mi44 min NNW 12 G 14 50°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi51 minNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds50°F41°F71%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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N9NW8NW7NW9
G16
N7N7N5N4N4N5N53N4N6N6N5N12
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1 day agoE5SE6SE7SW4SW4SW6SW8W11
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2 days agoW11
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W12W7SW4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S4SE3SE3S5SE5SE5SE8SE5S9SE11
G18
SE13SE14SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.