Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Beechwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:44 PM EST (18:44 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1105 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Rest of today..Northwest winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Freezing spray. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Friday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Clear. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing east late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ846 Expires:202002202200;;831480 FZUS53 KGRR 201606 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ846-202200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beechwood, MI
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location: 42.77, -86.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 201728 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1228 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

- Lake effect snow showers into afternoon

- Cold into Friday then a warming trend into Sunday

- Some sort of system with rain/snow Monday and Wednesday

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Wednesday) Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

-- Lake effect snow showers into afternoon --

Our lake effect snow showers have developed as we were thinking, after midnight but they are fairly light. I expect the snow showers to become slightly more widespread during the daytime hours due to the passage of the upper trough and coldest mid-level air in conjunction with day time heating. Inversion heights are at best 6000 ft mid to late morning (HRRR sounding) and with 850 temps near -18c and lake near 2c little question we have enough instability for lake effect. Lift is in the DGZ but it is shallow due to the shallow inversion heights. With the north northwest winds at cloud level this morning the lake effect snow showers will stay close to the lake shore. As we continue to say, accumulations will be limited, mostly less than an inch (if that) due to the limited cloud depth.

As the upper trough moves through with the coldest air moving east with it, winds at cloud level turn more westerly during the afternoon and that spreads the snow showers inland some. This should be little more than flurries through.

By evening there is enough warm advection and dry air to clear skies.

--Cold into Friday then a warming trend into Sunday --

We have a decent warm up heading this way for Saturday into Sunday. This is thanks to a Pacific shortwave that digs quickly south just off the west coats causing split flow the jet stream level by Friday. With the polar jet near 55 north most of the weekend that puts us in Pacific air and on the back side of departing surface high. While not strictly in our forecast highs could reach 50 Sunday.

-- Some sort of system with rain/snow Monday and Wednesday --

That system that digs south off the west coast tomorrow is kicked east by a close wavelength Pacific system. That creates a complex pattern for us next week. The lead system comes out Monday but there is considerable disagreement on how this plays out. The latest ECMWF has the trailing system at the main storm and that would impact us Wednesday. It will turn colder after that for quite some time. In any event there is to much uncertainty to say just how this plays out. I would expect at least one of these system to bring us significant precipitation (type a question).

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

VFR conditions will continue through Friday. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 10 knots through tonight and southwest around 10 knots on Friday.

MARINE. Issued at 334 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Due the strong system passing well north of Michigan Friday, winds will really increase. However this is some question as to how air temps near the lake temp will impact mixing the gale winds just off the surface down the lake surface. We will issue a gale watch to cover that Friday into early Saturday.

We will let the SCA expire this afternoon and we may need to reissue one ahead of the gale watch late tonight into Friday morning.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . Ostuno MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 0 mi62 min NW 8 G 12 21°F 32°F1037.1 hPa9°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 26 mi44 min NW 13 G 15 21°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 32 mi34 min N 13 G 17 19°F 1040.5 hPa9°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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1 day
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G31
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E12
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G30
W21
G26

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI6 mi51 minNW 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast23°F10°F60%1039 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
G19
W12NW12
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NW9NW6NW3NW4NW7NW5NW6NE3NE4NE3NE4N4N5CalmN4N5N8NE4N5NW10
G16
1 day agoNW14
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NW12NW14
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W7W9W10W12
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N5NE3CalmCalmNW11W10
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NW10NW11
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2 days agoE14E13E12SE11
G19
E10E10E16
G21
E12E15SE11SE11SE10SE10S9SW10W20
G27
W15
G24
W14
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W16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.