Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Town Line, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Backdoor cold front to bring showers this afternoon and evening to the east.

2) Unsettled weather returns next weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Backdoor cold front to bring showers this afternoon and evening to the east.

Our region will lie under an omega-blocking pattern...with the favorable ridge of pleasant weather just enough off to our west to allow a shortwave trough and its associated cold front to drop across the eastern Lake Ontario region, and towards the Finger Lakes this afternoon and evening. Instability is marginal for any thunder, but forcing along the front, combined with increase moisture with the shortwave trough should yield light showers that back in from the east this afternoon...and diminish over the Finger Lakes region this evening. Overall rainfall will average a tenth of an inch or less.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather returns next weekend.

As the omega pattern breaks down later this week, a shortwave trough from the west will bring back unsettled weather to our region. While a few members of the GEFS, GEPS and ENS bring in showers or thunderstorms on Friday, the higher percentage of these ensemble members favor the Saturday and Sunday timeframe...most notably the afternoon hours during peak heating of the day.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF period.

Dry weather will persist across the entire region through this morning, although mid level decks will continue to thicken and lower from northeast to southwest over the eastern Lake Ontario region in advance of the next disturbance and associated cold front dropping south along the western periphery of the cool upper level low that continues to spin to our east.

This will bring the chance for a few showers/rumble of thunder to areas east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening, with predominant CIGS expected to be around 5- 7 kft.

VFR and dry conditions will prevail across the remainder of the area through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Surface high pressure over Lake Erie this morning will drift to the southeast...allowing for a backdoor cold front to clip Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening. Westerly flow will continue today, with winds weakening tonight and shifting to northerly behind the cold front. Early this afternoon waves may reach 2 to 3 feet along the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline before diminishing with weakening flow.

This light northerly flow will continue through Monday as high pressure again builds back into our region. This high will anchor over the eastern Great Lakes through at least Thursday, spelling great conditions for boating this first week of June.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.