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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds around 15 knots. Patchy drizzle through about 2 am, then rain overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots veering south, then veering west late in the day. Rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots backing south toward daybreak. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds around 15 knots backing north. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds around 15 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 030214 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 914 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

UPDATE
Issued at 914 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Patchy drizzle will remain possible until our next round of rain and snow moves in early Sunday morning. Areas along and north of M-46 have the better potential to see accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and isolated higher amounts toward northern Lake, Osceola, and Clare counties. Reduced visibilities and snow covered roads are possible Sunday morning, use caution if traveling.

South of M-46 to I-96 there could be some brief minor slushy accumulations with the snow Sunday morning. Otherwise the southern half of the area will see rain with low visibilities at times.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

- Risk for accumulating wet snow starting up towards daybreak Sunday

Water vapor imagery shows a mid level wave in OK, tracking northeast. This feature is forecast to lift up through the CWA Sunday morning. Moisture deepens up in the CWA after midnight tonight and precipitation will be spreading in from the southwest by daybreak Sunday. Models are showing favorable lift in the DGZ and elevated instability/steeper mid level lapse rates moving in during the morning. Thus, this system has the potential to overperform and feature some higher snowfall rates for a few hours Sunday morning. While the SPC HRRR suggests we may struggle to generate impactful snow amounts, the most recent runs of the members have increased their amounts. Surface temperatures may be near or just above freezing for much of the event as well which could limit any accumulations on roadways/sidewalks. Forecast soundings suggest Kent County may be on the edge of the accumulating snow. These soundings also depict the steeper mid level lapse rates and an isothermal near freezing layer sfc-875 mb. Overall this is a colder trend than previous runs and we will shift the accumulating snow axis further south to include Kent and Muskegon Counties. We will also increase the amounts over the previous forecast and feature a general 1 to 3 inches for the north half of the CWA. No headlines are planned but we will need to monitor trends closely. If this event turns convective, we would more easily reach impactful snow amounts.

The wrap around moisture pivots through the region Sunday afternoon. Surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing then and the precipitation will be lighter so any remaining snow then may just melt on the roads/sidewalks.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Numerous chances of precipitation are expected for the long term period. Temperatures are also expected to go from near normal to above normal by late next week.

The long term period starts with a brief period of dry conditions Monday as surface and shortwave riding traverse the area. This is followed by a northern stream shortwave dropping through the area late Monday Night into the day on Tuesday. A cooler temperature profile with freezing levels only at 1-2 kft will support mainly snow across West Michigan.

However, there won't be much moisture to work with for this system. QPF values will be under 0.25 inches which would keep accumulation of any snow low. However, there may be enough to put a light coating on the roads for the Tuesday morning commute. This could create a few slick spots. Any snow will mix with or change to rain during the day on Tuesday as temperatures top out in the mid to upper thirties.

Longwave troughing and associated cooler temperatures depart midweek as ridging advances into the region. Resulting warm air advection causes 850 mb temps to rise into the 5C-7C range by late week supporting highs in the 40s. WPC cluster analysis shows good consensus on ridging in the Great Lakes Region by Friday, though there are questions on the strength of any ridging and effects of any shortwaves resulting in expected spread in guidance. Regardless, temperatures warm to solidly above normal, which matches the expectation of the Madden Julian Oscillation moving into phases 5-6 a week from now.

The warm air advection pattern also supports occasional light showers in the mid to late week period. Given the warmer temperatures, any precipitation would be favored to be mainly rain.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

An area of MVFR ceilings exists from MKG to AMN with IFR to LIFR ceilings south. Patchy drizzle will be possible manly along and south of this line as well. Overnight into Sunday morning MVFR ceilings will drop to IFR values as rain and snow move into the area. MKG and GRR have the best chance out of the TAF sites to see snow mix in or a brief period of snow during the morning before transitioning back to rain. Most of the snow accumulations will remain north of the terminals, but there remains a slight chance (30 percent) for some slushy accumulations at MKG and GRR.



MARINE
Issued at 158 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

The flow will continue to feature an easterly component through Sunday. This will act to keep wave heights relatively low in the nearshore zones. The pressure gradient will also be relatively weak and that will support winds remaining mostly under 20 knots.
As a result no headlines are planned for the next couple of periods.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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