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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Wednesday through Wednesday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots veering west after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Saturday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 040534 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 134 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Changes are on the way but for the time being we remain in a very summerlike pattern with record/near record warmth. The first change will be for increasing cloudiness tonight and tmrw with the approach of the upper trough from the west as the upper ridge axis slips east. High temps Wednesday will still be 15 degrees or more above normal inland from the Lk MI shoreline though, especially if the cloud cover isn't particularly thick.

The showers associated with the incoming sfc cold front primarily hold off until Wednesday night, although a few could arrive into the Ludington area by late in the afternoon (after 4 pm or so).
Breezier conditions will develop Wednesday, most notably along the lakeshore north of Holland where south winds could gust up to 30 MPH.

Fairly widespread coverage of showers is anticipated on Wednesday night as PWATs surge to 1.5 inches along the cold front, but the slow movement of the front (due to it being parallel to the upper level flow) could delay rainfall arrival south and east of GRR until very late at night or even toward morning, especially around JXN.


LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A dynamic and amplified evolution of the polar jet stream across North America will dig an upper level trough into the Midwest and Great Lakes in the latter half of this week, which will transition to serve as the eastern foot of an omega block early next week. A series of cold fronts will pass through our area Thursday-Friday, and we will find ourselves in the trough of cold air (with 850 mb temperatures near 0 C) over the weekend, on the west side of a maturing cyclone.

Ensembles remain in strong support of progressively colder temperatures Thursday through Sunday, followed by a tendency for moderating temperatures early next week. Rain showers are likely with a chance of thunder ahead of the first cold front from Wednesday night to Thursday. Instability looks modest, though deep moisture and a healthy amount of lift would support a chance of rain amounts around 1 inch, particularly south/east of Grand Rapids and lesser amounts northwest.

Much of Friday may be dry, then lake-enhanced rain showers are likely from late Friday into at least Saturday. There are a few members in the ensemble envelope which produce heavy rain (greater than an inch) over the weekend if the wraparound mid-level moisture on the west side of the cyclone nudges back toward our area rather than staying farther east-northeast. Winds over the weekend may also gust over 30 mph. Quite a dramatic seasonal change in the weather is on the way.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected with southerly winds picking up this morning. Gusts around 20 knots are expected this afternoon with the highest gusts around 25 knots closer to the lakeshore. A line of showers is expected to move in late this afternoon into this evening from the northwest. Before 6Z MKG and GRR have the best chance to see showers with the other TAF sites farther to the south and east staying dry until after 6Z. There is a chance for thunder but confidence is not high at this time, therefore just left the thunder mention in the prob30 group for now.

MARINE
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Have issued a Small Craft Advisory north of Holland from 8 AM Wednesday through Midnight for a period of south winds 15 to 25 kts ahead of an approaching cold front. Waves will build to 3-5 feet, largest near Big and Little Sable Points, before subsiding overnight in baggier sfc pressure gradient as the cold front nears. Other marine headlines are a near certainty from Friday through the weekend as progressively colder air flows in on the heels of brisk west/northwest winds.



CLIMATE
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Record highs through Wednesday:

Today Wed

Grand Rapids 85 - 1953,'19,'00 87 - 1951 Muskegon 83 - 2018 83 - 1951 Lansing 90 - 1898 86 - 1951,'00 Kalamazoo 88 - 1953 90 - 1951 Battle Creek 88 - 1953 87 - 1951 Jackson 89 - 1953 90 - 1951 Holland 86 - 1919 89 - 1951

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for LMZ846>849.

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