Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minoa, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will remain in control today with warm temperatures.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will bring potential for more minor flooding Wednesday into Thursday and a low chance for an isolated strong thunderstorm.

3) Temperatures then trend colder into the weekend before a slight warm up Sunday. A couple of systems will bring chances for snow and rain showers.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Bumped up high temperatures for today a few degrees above NBM, as warm return flow and afternoon sunshine will bring temperatures into the low 70s across the southern half of the forecast area. Further north, lift out ahead of a warm front will bring mostly cloudy and cooler conditions with a few showers this afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s generally north of the I90 corridor.
Clouds from the north will increase overnight and drop southward. The mostly cloudy conditions will help keep temperatures very warm for this time of year, with lows only in the 50s most areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned warm front is associated with a low pressure system that will slide across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. This will put the region in the warm sector of the system and temperatures will once again climb into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday. Cloud cover will be a factor though and could keep temperatures cooler than forecasted. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon.

Otherwise, there will be a brief period of dry weather before the low drags a cold front through Wednesday night. Along this front, there will be widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. While models are showing some elevated instability overnight of 1000+ J/kg, there will also be a low level inversion that should limit the strength of any thunderstorms. SPC clips the southwestern portion of our CWA with a Marginal Risk on the Day 2 Outlook. Confidence is low at this time for any severe weather, as the set up looks similar to this past weekend where conditions will be stable through most of the day and the front is late to move through. It will be very tough for the stronger wind aloft to break through the low level inversion and mix to the surface. With the warm conditions and rain showers expected, we will have to monitor for additional flooding issues as portions of northern NY still have over a foot of snowpack.

Once the cold front moves through, much colder air fills in behind it on Thursday. As it exits, there will be a brief changeover to snow showers resulting in light accumulations of less than an inch.
Cool, northwesterly flow will support some light lake effect snow showers for the eastern Finger Lakes and over into the Tug Hill Plateau. Some additional accumulation will be possible. Temperatures will plummet throughout the day. In addition, winds will be strong around the low and along the front thanks to tight pressure gradients. As a result, wind chills will be in the teens and 20s on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Models have been consistent for the longer range forecast to end the week and into this weekend. Conditions will remain colder than normal. A clipper system moves through the region Friday into Saturday. There is still uncertainty on how this system will track, so precipitation types are also uncertain. However, model guidance continue favor just rain and snow. Then another low pressure system will move through during the latter half of the weekend and early next week. There will be a brief warm up on Sunday before temperatures fall once again early next week behind the departing cold front. This system may bring a mixed back of precipitation types as rain, snow, and wintry mix would all be possible. Behind this front, strong cold air advection is looking more and more likely for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through this morning. Clouds will start to increase and ceilings will lower beginning this afternoon. The first two terminals to see MVFR restrictions will likely be at KRME and KSYR, but restrictions will spread southward to include KITH, KELM, and KBGM by this evening. Along with the increasing clouds, a few light rain showers impact the Central NY terminals, especially at KSYR and KRME, but these are expected to result in minimal visby restrictions. KAVP likely remains VFR through the entire TAF period (at least through 12Z Wednesday).

Outlook:

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Rain showers becoming likely, especially in the afternoon with associated restrictions. Thunder possible Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Thursday evening...Scattered rain showers, mixing in with snow showers. Restrictions possible, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Friday through Friday night...Occasional restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

CLIMATE
Near-record warmth is expected today (3/10) and Wednesday (3/11).
For reference, below are the record high temperatures at our three climate sites (KSYR, KBGM, and KAVP) for these dates:

March 10th:

Syracuse, NY: 67 degrees (1977)
Binghamton, NY: 66 degrees (1977)
Avoca, PA: 68 degrees (1955)

March 11th:

Syracuse, NY: 73 degrees (2021)
Binghamton, NY: 68 degrees (1977)
Avoca, PA: 74 degrees (2021)

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.