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LMZ846 Holland To Grand Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Friday through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..South winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Friday night..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds to 30 knots veering southwest. Rain showers likely. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds to 30 knots veering northwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots backing southwest late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 080433 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1133 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

UPDATE
Issued at 1047 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A quiet weather night is expected in a southerly flow regime between high pressure well off to our east and a low in the plains. Skies will generally be mostly cloudy tonight as clouds develop ahead of the plains low. There is the possibility of some light fog across Central Lower Michigan, but overall no significant weather is expected tonight. Lows will hold in the 30s tonight.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Lingering plume of lake augmented clouds across Ottawa and central Kent counties is finally mixing out. Skies will be rather clear tonight before expanding high clouds filter in overnight. Increasing boundary layer moisture across Kansas and Missouri will overspread the area in the morning. There may be an additional slug lake moisture scraped on the way in to make for more clouds. Winds will get gusty from the south through the morning as the warm front clears the area. Temperatures will climb into the 50s, especially outside the lake shadow. Moisture depth will be limited as far as producing shower activity.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Sharp ridging aloft will traverse the region through Friday. The broad trough over the western CONUS will compress in wavelength as embedded synoptic-scale features superpose while the strong jet over the Southwest CONUS drives eastward. Wave phase will stay out of alignment enough to maintain positive tilt through Sunday. As the jet exits the base of the trough early Saturday - surface cyclone development will occur near Saint Louis. The low will track through Chicagoland to the Straits. The slug of precipitation appears closely ties to the surface low. Appears that showers will be likely with the passage of the system during the day Saturday.

The primary surge of Gulf moisture will be east of the region on Sunday. As the upper trough swings through, cold air will filter into the region. The airmass will be cold enough during the day Sunday to initiate some lake-effect activity in the north/northwest flow. The depth of cold air will be appreciable - but rather warm for efficient snow production. The depth decreases rather aggressively by late Sunday, which will cause a rather quick decline in lake-effect Sunday night.

The cool start to the week will not last very long. A dry pattern appears in the offing with temps rebounding to above normal once again through the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all the terminals through early Friday evening. However some MVFR cigs are possible from mid morning Friday through the early to mid afternoon hours.
It will also become rather breezy from mid to late Friday morning through the afternoon with south winds of 10-20 kts with gusts to near 25 kts. Widespread MVFR cigs will develop late Friday evening but development of showers should hold off until the early morning hours Saturday (after 06Z Sat).

MARINE
Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Winds and waves have settled down for the day. South flow will be on the increase late tonight as a warm front lifts into the region. The gusty flow will set up waves in excess of 5 feet through the day.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for LMZ844>846.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ847>849.

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