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LMZ872 Expires:202312112215;;289404 Fzus63 Kmkx 111503 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 903 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
high pressure of 30.2 inches along the upper mississippi river valley this morning will slide southeast to the ohio river valley this afternoon, while strong low pressure tracks across far southern hudson bay through Tuesday. Thus light to modest northwest winds this morning will back to brisk southwest winds this afternoon and increasing further tonight. A gale warning has been issued for the north half of the lake tonight. The winds will veer to west northwest and remain brisk for Tuesday and Tuesday night but remain below gale force. Modest westerly winds are expected for Wednesday as high pressure sets up from northern illinois into the ohio river valley.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-112215- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 903 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 111748 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

UPDATE
Issued at 1141 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

No big changes to the going forecast for this afternoon. Surface ridging is sliding east through the area today...so we are not expecting much in the way of sensible weather. A westerly flow off of Lake Michigan will keep the clouds locked in for most areas through sunset. The exception may be the far south towards South Haven and Kalamazoo where a backing wind to the west-southwest may take the lake out of play and open up some clearing there late in the day. Overall though, benign weather with gray skies and temperatures in the 30s.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

We have been monitoring observations across the area and outside our door this morning for any evidence that freezing drizzle is "heavy" enough to cause impacts and require the need for messaging about it.

All of the area observations have not shown any kind of restriction to visibility since the snow showers moved through just before midnight. Outside the door here, there is the slightest hint of some very light mist, but it is not freezing on any sfcs so far. The T/Td depression is likely enough to help it evaporate before freezing on sfcs.

The good news is that the very light radar echoes are shrinking in coverage and intensity, and with that the chance for any meaningful frozen pcpn. This is occurring as the upper trough is shifting east of the area, and the cyclonic flow aloft is transitioning to anti- cyclonic flow.

The low level flow will back a bit today eventually to become from the SW. There may be a couple of residual lake effect flurries/light snow showers as the flow becomes more onshore. Forecast soundings indicate a thin layer of the dgz barely being saturated, leading to the light drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow threshold being very close.

It does look like any snow showers will end by this evening.
Indications are that the low clouds will gradually move/erode from SW to NE this evening as lake effect ends as temps aloft warm sufficiently. We will see a weak front try and clip the northern portion of the area late tonight and early Tuesday. This will help low clouds to try to redevelop, and to bring a small chc of pcpn to the U.S.-10 corridor.

That should move out Tuesday morning, and allow skies to try to clear out once again no later than Tuesday evening.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

No significant weather expected through next weekend. A trough axis moves east on Wednesday with shortwave ridging for Thursday. Mostly clear skies are expected for the peak of the Geminid meteor shower on Wednesday night.

Only slight chance POPs in the forecast for Friday with a weak trough and sfc cold front slowly settling south across the Great Lakes. A weak clipper could moves along the front over the weekend.
Forecast soundings show little moisture to work with and the mean path of the sfc low remains north of the forecast area, so little if any QPF is expected.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

A solid MVFR cloud deck remains in place over lower Michigan, but clouds will scour out into VFR late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Winds will shift more southwesterly through the night, then will turn westerly after 12z Tuesday. Increasing winds are expected this evening through the overnight to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

We are hoisting a Gale Warning for Pentwater to Manistee for tonight, and hoisting a Small Craft Advisory for the rest of the area from this evening through Wednesday.

We are in a relative lull this morning with regards to winds and waves. The gusty winds over the last couple of days have moved out.
This will be short lived as the gradient will pick up out of the SW ahead of a system that will moving by to our north. Winds will diminish a bit after tonight, but will stay up enough until early Wednesday to keep the SCA in effect. Waves do not come down enough until late Wednesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>848.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ849.

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