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LMZ872 Expires:202312111015;;260769 Fzus63 Kmkx 110258 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 858 pm cst Sun dec 10 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
high pressure of 30.2 inches centered just to the west of wisconsin this evening will slide southeast across southern lake michigan later tonight into Monday. Winds will continue to become lighter tonight into early Monday, increasing out of the southwest by Monday afternoon on the back side of the high and ahead of an approaching trough. The trough and cold front will move through Monday night into early Tuesday, with gusty westerly winds expected behind the front on Tuesday. Strong high pressure of 30.7 inches will then move into the region by mid-week. Winds will remain breezy at times, with lake michigan on the northern side of the strong high.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-111015- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 858 pm cst Sun dec 10 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt late in the morning, then becoming southwest early in the afternoon increasing to 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 110310 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1010 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

UPDATE
Issued at 1010 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Ongoing light lake effect precipitation may transition to predominately drizzle/freezing drizzle/snow grains overnight into Monday morning. The DGZ has been only marginally saturated today and the latest HRRR soundings at BIV show further drying (almost completely) of the DGZ overnight as the inversion height lowers a tad more. Also decent omega is shown to linger in the cloud layer through mid morning Monday.

Road temps are still in the mid 30s so there probably won't be too much impact over the next several hours should the precip become predominately freezing drizzle, but it is certainly something to watch for the Monday morning commute since sfc temps are expected drop off a few degrees by that time. Will update the Hazardous Weather Outlook to include a FZDZ possibility near and west of Hwy 131.



SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

- Showers continue through tonight

Rain and snow showers continue with the positive vorticity advection moving through paired with the northwest flow over Lake Michigan. Colder air will continue to advect over the area with temperatures dropping overnight into the mid 20s to low 30s. Any rain is expected to transition to snow this evening with showers focusing more along the lakeshore overnight with amounts under an inch. There is also a chance (20 to 30 percent) for a lake effect snow band to reach Clare County and bring some light accumulations under an inch this evening.

Drier air moves in for Monday and continues into Monday night with a brief shortwave ridge setting up. Lake effect clouds linger within the northwest to west flow, but the saturation doesn't look deep enough for any precipitation. This will keep high temperatures in the 30s for another gloomy day.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Very little in the way of active weather is expected through the long term period of Tuesday through Sunday. Upper troughing will be in place to start the forecast period on Tuesday, replaced by zonal flow and much higher heights for the remainder of the period.
Temperatures through the long term will be above normal warming from the 30s on Tuesday to the 40s and near 50 by the end of the week and into next weekend.

As for any sensible weather there is a cold front that the models show passing through the area on Tuesday. Limited moisture means the front will pass through dry. This will be a time of windy conditions with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest. Potential for some gusts to around 30 mph.

The only other time where there may be some precipitation will be out in the Friday time frame with another cold front. There is differences however in the operational models with the GFS pushing a cold front through while the ECWMF has ridging transitioning into a southwest flow. Bottom line, low confidence in this precipitation and left the small pops (20 pct) in our model blends in the forecast. So, we have a 20 pct chance of rain showers Friday into Friday night. Overall a very quiet forecast given the this time of year where we can be quite active.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

In general tonight will feature MVFR cigs and scattered light snow or mixed rain and snow showers west of GRR and BTL (including MKG and AZO). VFR/dry weather is expected to prevail elsewhere/inland.
On Monday as northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts back to the west- southwest those lower MVFR cigs closer to the lakeshore may press a bit farther inland into GRR and BTL for a time in the morning.
Otherwise all areas should see cigs lift into VFR category after 18Z Monday as any remaining light lake effect precipitation ends.



MARINE
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Winds and waves gradually subside this evening with a lull in Small Craft conditions expected until Monday night when southwest winds and waves build again. Winds turn back to the northwest Tuesday with the front with Small Craft conditions lingering into Wednesday.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ844>849.

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