Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 8:50 PM   Moonset 5:57 AM

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LMZ872 Expires:202404241515;;280937 Fzus63 Kmkx 240759 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 259 am cdt Wed apr 24 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
north gales should gradually subside early this morning, and a gale warning remains in effect. High waves should linger into this morning.
winds and waves will gradually lighten up today into Thursday, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves southeast across the region.
south winds will then increase again Friday and remain gusty through the upcoming weekend, as multiple low pressure systems move northeast through the region. There will be additional chances for gales at times Friday night into Saturday. Building waves are expected as well.
lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-241515- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 259 am cdt Wed apr 24 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
.gale warning in effect until 7 am cdt this morning - .
Today - North gales to 35 kt early, subsiding to 30 kt this morning then diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late in the evening, then becoming northeast after midnight becoming east late. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming east 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft. Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Friday night - Southeast gales to 35 kt becoming south gales to 40 kt. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft. Saturday - South gales to 35 kt

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 240738 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 338 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Thursday morning

- Rounds of Precipitation in the Forecast Friday Night through Monday

- Warmer Weather Expected This Weekend into Early Next Week

DISCUSSION
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

- Widespread Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Thursday morning

Bottom line up front: In coordination with Detroit have decided to upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Gusty Northwesterly flow continues with cloudy skies and strong cold air advection behind the cold front. Downsloping flow will continue today into tomorrow as dry, cold air settles over the region as the day progresses. Dewpoints will drop today and overnight into Thursday. Clearing skies follow from north to south today as cold dry air mass pours in, with sunny skies emerging by early afternoon as sfc dew pts drop into the teens north and 20s south.

Guidance has been consistently showing high probabilities for sub freezing temperatures early Thursday morning as sfc high settles overhead with sfc dew pts of 15 to 20 in place. While some questions of cloud cover remain, latest CAMS and ensemble guidance have very few if any low to mid clouds with any high clouds predominately in the far southwest. Winds are expected to drop shortly after sunset so the calm winds will only aid in lowering temperatures.

Latest NBM has dropped temps even colder. Coldest temps look to be in the low 20s along the US 10 corridor with the mid to upper 20s through most of the area. The warmest temps will be west of US 131 near the lakeshore. for these reasons have gone with a warning.

As the upper level ridge builds over the region expect clear and dry conditions to continue through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound with highs on Thursday in the upper 50s.

- Rounds of Precipitation in the Forecast Friday Night through Monday

An active spring time pattern is shaping up in the longer term of this weekend into next week. A trough aloft will be replaced by deep southwest flow as we head into the weekend...which means rounds of precipitation. The first upper wave will swing through the region Friday night into Saturday. At the surface a warm front will surge through as well. Given a deep southwest flow plenty of moisture will be available making both showers and thunderstorms likely. GFS and ECMWF most unstable CAPE progs indicate values in excess of 1,000 j/kg. Rainfall amounts with this first event will likely be above a half inch. Another rain event looks likely for Sunday into Monday as we will be in the warm sector initially followed by a cold frontal passage on Monday. Some shower activity may linger into Monday night. We look mainly dry for Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Warmer Weather Expected This Weekend into Early Next Week

The deep southwest flow will bring much warmer air into the region.
850mb temperatures will largely be in the +10C to +14C range this weekend into next week. Highs in the 60s and 70s are expected which is well above normal highs which are around 60. In the warm sector on Sunday its not out of the realm of possibilities to make a run at 80. The ECMWF MOS guidance actually has a high of 80 on Sunday at GRR.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A cold front continues to sweep south and east tonight. At 06Z the front stretches from near Port Huron to Marshall to near South Bend IN. The front will we southeast of the TAF sites by 08Z or so. Near the frontal zone, from AZO to LAN and JXN, pockets of clearing are interspersed with MVFR ceilings. This will quickly be overtaken however from the north by a bank of MVFR stratocumulus.
So, from 09Z through 14Z widespread MVFR ceilings will be in place. From 14Z to 19Z these MVFR ceilings will clear out from north to south. After 19Z, VFR weather is expected. Gusty north winds of 10 to 20 knots can be expected this morning through 12Z.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM Wednesday.
Strong, downsloping northerly flow will continue through the daytime. Winds will begin to have a northeasterly off shore component this afternoon and will slacken late this afternoon. Winds and waves should subside quickly Wednesday night into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the area.

Southerly flow should prevail over Lk MI through most of the upcoming weekend as a warmer/more humid air mass arrives. It's quite possible the southerly winds will be strong enough to require small craft advisories, at least at times. Other marine threats over the weekend could include occasional thunderstorms and areas of fog as dew points above 50 arrive atop chilly water temps in the mid 40s.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

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