Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North East, PA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely this evening, especially across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. A few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail, but the severe threat is low. After some fog tonight, quiet weather is in store Friday.

2) A strong cold front with another round of severe weather expected Saturday, along with significant temperature drops behind the cold front.

3) Frost/Freeze confidence growing for Sunday night and Monday night in the chillier Canadian airmass.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Strong convection from this afternoon has exited to the east. A trailing vort max and surface trough is crossing this evening, continuing shower and thunder chances, especially across Northeast OH and Crawford County PA. A few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail before 10 PM, though the severe threat was mainly with the earlier convection. A humid near- surface airmass along with light winds and clearing skies thanks to building high pressure offers potential for fog development tonight, with hi-res guidance suggesting the greatest fog potential will be near and south/southwest of Lake Erie. Fog lifts Friday morning, giving way to a quiet and mild day, though a few degrees cooler than recently.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another warm front and a brief residence period in the warm sector for Saturday ahead of an airmass changing cold front that will track through the CWA After a quiet Friday, this will put the region back into the threat for severe weather with increasing low/mid level flows and renewed buoyancy in the afternoon hours with dewpoints back towards the 60F mark. Cold frontal timing will be around 16Z through 23Z give or take an hour or two, and expecting line segments and mainly a wind threat. The warm sector destabilization is going to play a key role in how this evolves, however, and only in a small area of slight from the SWO D3.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the wake of the cold front, a much more seasonably cold airmass expected to drop into the Great Lakes under Canadian high pressure, and will see 850mb temperatures that have consistently been in the upper single digits to low teens to fall into the -7C to -12C range by Monday morning. Currently have low temperatures by Monday morning to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s, and with the growing season now begun, the need for Frost and Freeze products is increasing in confidence. This could now carry over into Monday night/Tuesday morning for the eastern half of the CWA as the surface high pressure will only be getting east of the CWA Tuesday morning to allow for surface return flow. Some warm air advection off the surface in the lower levels should be enough to keep a second freeze threat out of the western half of the CWA As the POPs exit Sunday, some wet snowflakes could fall Sunday evening for the far eastern CWA Monday high temperatures may not get out of the upper 30s for the far eastern portions of our NW PA counties. Temperatures rebound into the 60s primarily after Monday and into mid week next week.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
A surface trough is approaching CLE and MFD as of 0z, with showers and a bit of thunder accompanying it. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with gusty winds will impact CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI this evening before exiting east by midnight. Dry weather then continues through the rest of the TAFs thanks to building high pressure. Heavier showers or storms can bring brief MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings this evening.
Confidence in thunder at a given terminal is on the lower side, though included it in the YNG TAF where confidence is higher.

Outside of showers/storms it is VFR this evening. A decent setup for fog and low stratus development late tonight into Friday morning with humid conditions, mainly clear skies and light winds. Continued to indicate IFR to LIFR conditions at all TAF sites for a time late tonight into Friday, with improvement to VFR on Friday. Visibility and ceilings will likely be lowest for longest closer to Lake Erie, including CLE and ERI. Mainly west winds this evening go light and variable overnight tonight into early Friday, shifting more southerly by Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected during the predawn hours of Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Additional periods of rain with non- VFR should occur overnight Saturday night through Sunday evening. Rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening.

MARINE
A weak trough lingers over Lake Erie before a cold front sweeps SE'ward across the lake this evening through tonight. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Lakes through Friday. Ahead of the cold front, winds trend SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots with waves of 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are expected in open waters. Behind the front, winds veer to mainly W'erly to N'erly and ease to around 5 knots. Accordingly, waves subside to 1 foot or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and waves of 2 feet or less are expected. These winds should trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development.

During Friday night through Saturday morning, the ridge exits E'ward and allows a warm front to sweep N'ward across Lake Erie. Mainly E'erly to SE'erly winds of about 5 to 15 knots ahead of the warm front veer to S'erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots behind the front. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 to 5 footers should occur in open U.S. waters of the central basin based on forecast fetch. A strong cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night and allow SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to W'erly. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 6 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed, especially east of The Islands.

Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie through Sunday night and be accompanied by W'erly to NW'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should be as large as 3 to 7 feet. On Monday, a ridge should build from the west and be accompanied by winds becoming variable and easing to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves are forecast to subside to 2 feet or less by sunset Monday evening. The ridge should exit E'ward and allow a warm front to move generally N'ward across Lake Erie Monday night through Tuesday. The light and variable winds ahead of the front should give way to S'erly to SW'erly winds freshening to around 15 to 25 knots behind the front. Waves should be mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are expected in the open waters.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.