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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 1005 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Rain likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots backing west late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds around 15 knots veering north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds around 15 knots backing west late in the day. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 020156 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 856 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

UPDATE
Issued at 856 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Not much of a change from the previous forecast except a slight shift of the rain/snow line slightly south from around a West Olive to Grand Rapids to St. Johns line. This in turn has brought snow accumulations a little farther south. North of this line surface temperatures are around freezing allowing accumulations to occur especially where snowfall rates are a little higher as seen in traffic cameras and reports. Will continue to monitor the melting line for any additional minor adjustments. Otherwise still looking at around around 1 to 3 inches mainly north of M-57.
Remember to take it slow in the snow!

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 211 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

- Risk for Accumulating snow later this afternoon into Tonight mainly north of MKG- AMN

An area of developing precipitation stretched from northeast KS through southeast WI. This feature will track through the CWA later this afternoon into tonight. Forecast soundings support snow mainly north of a Muskegon to Alma line...transitioning to mainly rain further south. It's a close call for Grand Rapids to be rain or snow, but northern Kent County looks more favorable for snow.
A general 1 to 3 inches is likely where it remains snow which also aligns with the ensemble forecasts for places like Big Rapids and Fremont. Deeper moisture and lift from FGEN near the DGZ supports the period of precipitation. The wave will be losing amplitude and there is not much support in the upper levels so the snow amounts should be limited. At this time, temperature readings are above freezing which are currently limiting any impacts. With temperatures falling near or just below freezing this evening into tonight, local impacts could develop. As the deeper moisture pulls away after midnight, the precipitation will gradually wind down.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes will favor near-normal temperatures through the middle of next week. Multiple shortwaves will be propagating through the trough, providing us with a few more chances for rain or snow for Sunday, then Mon night to Tues, then perhaps another at some point between Wed night and Fri. As is typical, there is decreasing confidence in each successive system to provide minor winterlike impacts given the spread in the model ensembles. However, there is fair confidence in milder temperatures arriving around Thu-Fri as the longwave pattern slowly translates eastward, spilling Pacific air into the Midwest.

High confidence in precip amounts between 0.1 and 0.5 inches with 90 pct PoPs during the day Sunday, but similar to what is ongoing today, the added layer complexity will be determining how much falls as snow and where. Reasonable to anticipate a spot of 1 to 2 inches in some part of the area, more likely north of I-96.

The Mon night - Tue wave is more of an Alberta clipper style system, with less moisture to work with and thus lower precip amounts favored. Similar rain/snow challenge to work out with that also, but minor accumulations in parts of the area are also plausible.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

LIFR to IFR ceilings continue with mainly IFR to MVFR visibilities. Precipitation will also continue overnight before tapering off Saturday morning. The rain snow line has set up along a MKG to AMN line. It may wobble a little through the night but north of this line expect snow as the primary precipitation type and rain south of this line. Not expecting any accumulations at TAF sites as what little snow is observed should melt. As precipitation ends Saturday morning visibilities are expected to improve, but low ceilings linger through Saturday into Saturday night.



MARINE
Issued at 211 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

East to northeast winds will limit the wave heights through the period. Overall the pressure gradient remains weak enough to keep values under 20 knots most of the time. As a result, no headlines are planned.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LM...None.

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