Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 7:02PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:55 AM EDT (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:50PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Early this morning..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Today..North gales to 40 knots. Rain showers. Waves 10 to 14 feet.
Tonight..Northwest gales to 35 knots decreasing to 30 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots veering east toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ847 Expires:201910162000;;783424 FZUS53 KGRR 160806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-162000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 161120
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
720 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
- significant beach and dune erosion with strong wind gusts more
than 45 mph are expected along the lakeshore today. Inland gusts
to 40 mph are expected.

- lake effect rain showers are expected Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday especially west of us-131.

- frost is possible away from the lakeshore Thursday night.

- after a warm up this weekend, the active pattern will continue
into next week.

Discussion (today through next Tuesday)
issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
a rather gnarly Wednesday is shaping up for most of western lower
michigan and especially the lakeshore. Regional water vapor imagery
depicts a low pressure system over northern lake michigan with
several embedded "curls" across wisconsin and a cold front extending
across eastern michigan. Indeed several mesolows can be seen via
radar imagery from kgrb, the largest strongest of which just east of
the door peninsula over the warm lake michigan waters with regional
observations confirming compact confluent cyclonic wind flow from
the leelanau peninsula to manistique and manitowoc. High resolution
cams have a great handle on the existence and current location of
the strongest mesolow and overall environmental regime leveraging
high confidence in the forecast over the next 12-24 hours.

The inherited forecast is in great shape with no changes to
headlines needed. As a secondary cold front swings into lower
michigan between 5 and 8 am this morning, winds will increase
abruptly from the northwest and persist through the afternoon hours.

The strongest wind gusts will be along the lakeshore where the ecmwf
ensemble continues to ubiquitously show 45-50 mph peak wind gusts
from ludington to south haven and a 30% probability for a wind gust
over 50 kts 57 mph. The strongest winds will likely be confined to
the southwestern side of the aforementioned mesolow or any
additional circulations that can develop as the front crashes
through, with the door peninsula circulation seemingly taking aim at
the points. A rumble of thunder is even possible this morning with
non-negligible MUCAPE and strong dynamic forcing. The combination of
elevated lake levels and strong winds will lead to significant beach
and dune erosion (see more in the marine section below). Inland,
wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected. Lake effect rain showers
will increase as the day progresses especially west of us-131 in
the northwest wind belts.

Winds will decrease toward sunset, though lake effect clouds and
scattered showers will likely persist through Thursday (the latter
mainly west of us-131). Clouds should start to break up Thursday
night as an upper-level ridge builds into the region, potentially
giving way to a cold and frosty night especially away from the
lakeshore. Temperatures this weekend are poised to warm into the 60s
as southwesterly flow becomes reestablished. Scattered showers are
possible Sunday as a weak shortwave trough swings through the area,
but overall coverage and precip amounts both look low. Forecast
ensemble model guidance continues to exhibit a signal for another
fall storm early next week, though the solution space remains large.

Another round of gusty winds along the lakeshore and lake effect
clouds seems like a good bet at some point given the most recent
ecmwf ensemble probabilities of a sub-1000 mb low and 850 mb
temperatures below 0 c are both greater than 50%.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 708 am edt Wed oct 16 2019
low CIGS are expected especially this morning with some ifr or
near-ifr conditions as rain showers become scattered about the
region. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 40 knots at mkg today
making for some adverse conditions at the terminal. Elsewhere we
are expecting around 30 knot wind gusts. Conditions should slowly
improve toward sunset but breezy conditions will remain.

Marine
Issued at 317 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Significant beach and dune erosion expected today...

northwesterly gales of 35-40 kts will develop rapidly toward sunrise
and persist through the afternoon hours. Locally stronger wind gusts
to 50 kts are possible with mesolow circulations, especially near
the points. Even though the duration of the strongest winds will be
relatively short (e.G. 12 hours), waves will build to 10-15' given a
long northwesterly fetch aimed right at a zone from muskegon to
south haven. The combination of strong winds, above average lake
michigan water levels (~3 feet above normal), and "push" of water
into the western lake michigan shore today will creates some of
the worst conditions observed in many years. Significant beach
and dune erosion is all but certain from the points southward,
especially between 10 am and 4 pm. Minor inundation of river
mouths and channels, parks, and roadways along the lakeshore is
likely as well. Stay away from the beach, piers, and lakeshore
parks today as conditions will be dangerous! No changes to the
lakeshore flood or gale warnings are necessary.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for miz037-
043-050-056-064-071.

Wind advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz037-043-050-
056-064-071.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Hoving
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi25 min NNW 35 G 40 49°F 1004.7 hPa46°F
45029 23 mi25 min NNW 25 G 33 50°F 58°F9 ft1004.7 hPa43°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi55 min WNW 26 G 32 48°F 1004.5 hPa44°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi61 min NW 12 G 29 48°F 43°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi60 minNW 14 G 2810.00 miLight Rain48°F42°F80%1003.9 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi79 minWNW 1310.00 miOvercast46°F45°F96%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE8SE9SE11SE11E13SE12SE10SE11SE8S11
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1 day agoW5W7W8W10W10W8W9W12W9
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SW6W4SE3SE4SE4SE5SE4E3SE4SE5SE4SE4SE7SE7
2 days agoSW15
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W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.