Saturday, February29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bolton Landing, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:44PM Saturday February 29, 2020 1:44 AM EST (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:27AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolton Landing, NY
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location: 43.54, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 290555 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1255 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue overnight into this weekend with some scattered snow showers and flurries around through Saturday morning, especially downwind of Lake Ontario. After a mostly sunny day on Sunday, the weather will turn mild and unsettled from early to the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow in effect for northern Herkimer and Hamilton Counties through 4 am.

As of 1225 AM EST, primary lake effect band is finally beginning to weaken and slowly shift south as the arctic boundary pushes south out of Canada. It might take all night for the arctic boundary to move through the entire forecast area but as it does, winds will turn more northerly and clouds will increase. We may also see additional snow showers break off from the lake bands. That being said, the near term forecast remains on track outside of refreshing the hourly temps.

Prev Disc . As of 950 pm EST . An upper level low continues to spin over southern Quebec. Diffuse snow showers and flurries continue ahead of a sfc trough moving southeast across the northern Catskills, Capital Region, and the Schoharie Valley. We have retooled the PoPs to account for this activity which looks like it is attaining some moisture from Lake Erie. We increased the PoPs to high chance and low likely values in Schoharie County. The low-level dewpoints remain dry in the teens and single digits. Any accumulations prior to midnight will be in the coating to half an inch range. We issued a SPS for a few of the heavier snow showers along and south of the I-88 corridor.

The flow continues to slowly veer ahead of a mid level trough and another sfc trough or weak cold front. The long lake axis parallel band off Ontario continues to slowly sag southeast and is impacting extreme northern Herkimer and northwest Hamilton Counties. Beaver River will likely get another 2-4 inches of snow. This band will continue to push south after midnight into the early and mid morning hours and continue to weaken. Some locations south and east of Old Forge and Rte 28 could get a few tenths to a couple of inches of snow, especially north of I-90. Lows will be in the teens and lowers 20s with some single digits in the Adirondack park with wind chills there zero to 10 below. Southwest to northwest winds will be at 5 to 15 mph.

By daybreak Saturday morning, a cold front associated with the passing midlevel trough will track through the area. Some snow showers may accompany the front/trough even as far south as portions of the Capital District, Berkshires, and Mid Hudson Valley. Forecast soundings at Albany show a brief period of steep lapse rates with inversion heights extending up to 3 km, so a brief heavier snow shower cannot be ruled out mainly 11Z-15Z across most of the region. Partial clearing is expected behind the front in valley areas, but higher terrain may stay mostly cloudy. It will be chilly and a bit breezy day with wind chills remaining in the single digits, teens, and low 20s from north to south. Max temps will be in the teens and 20s with some lower 30s in the mid Hudson Valley.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. The midlevel trough finally shifts east Saturday night. Lingering light snow showers early over the western Mohawk Valley will dissipate, and partial clearing is expected. Lows will be on the chilly side, and could be even colder if a surface ridge arrives faster than models currently indicate. This would especially be true across the deep snowpack of the southern Adirondacks.

Sunday, midlevel height rises will promote ridging building in at the surface, so a good deal of sunshine is expected. Highs will still be a few degrees below normal as the departing anomalously cold airmass loosens its grip, but a few degrees milder than Saturday.

The flow becomes zonal Sunday night with some isentropic lift and moisture advection working into the area late. We could see a quick drop in temperatures right after sunset, but with a moderating trend toward daybreak. Models differ on precipitation potential toward daybreak, so we will confine chance PoPs to areas west of the Hudson after 06Z. If precip does occur, it would probably be in the form of light snow initially, possibly changing to mixed precip as warmer air aloft mixes in. But due to the antecedent dry airmass, there appears to be a better likelihood that this period will remain dry. Will continue to monitor trends.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The period starts out on Monday with some weak isentropic lift resulting possible light precipitation. Best chances look to be for areas north and west of Albany with light rain and/or snow showers. Any snow accumulation would be very minimal, only a dusting to less than a half inch in some spots and mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be mild by afternoon with the warm advection regime, with highs mainly in the 40s, except slightly cooler in the mountains. The system's cold front may then produce a few additional showers Monday evening, with a drying trend overnight.

Models then start to diverge significantly starting on Tuesday. The GFS is showing a more significant wave of low pressure quickly approaching Tuesday morning in the southwest flow aloft. However, the ECMWF is indicating a weaker wave and is delayed until later in the day. Will mention mainly chance pops, with low-likely southwest of Albany. Either way, precip should be mainly light through Tuesday with mild temperatures persisting. Again, mainly rain showers expected in the valleys with rain or snow showers in the mountains.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night looks to be an even lower confidence forecast period, as the GFS has a wave of low pressure moving northeast along a front draped across our region on Wednesday, with another stronger wave developing to our south Wednesday night with phasing. This could potentially result in a rain to snow scenario. However, the ECMWF is showing a completely different solution with a lack of phasing of the northern/southern streams with just an innocuous short wave passage with a few rain/snow showers during this time. Due to the uncertainty will generally mention chance to low-likely pops during this time, although QPF could range anywhere from light to significant.

Breezy and cooler conditions then expected for Thursday into Friday, with a northwest flow regime setting up. This should result in more seasonable temperatures for early March, with mainly slight or chance pops for some snow showers as a short wave or two moves through the mean flow.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The stacked low pressure system over southeastern Canada with move gradually eastward as short waves rotate about it. A surface boundary will sweep across the area late Saturday morning. Expecting some isolated to scattered snow showers and flurries across the area. Southwest-west flow will shift to the west-northwest with its passage and winds will pick up becoming gusty for the afternoon into the early evening. Gusts into the 20s are expected. VFR ceilings are expected with the exception for MVFR conditions possible at KPSF for a period. Cloud cover will decrease as we head through the evening hours and heights begin to rise aloft and surface ridging builds in from the west and winds will weaken.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

HYDROLOGY. Temperatures will remain on the cold side and often below freezing through the weekend, which will promote ice thickening on area waterways. Accumulating precipitation will mainly be confined to light to moderate lake effect snow west of the Hudson through Saturday. There will be periodic chances for precipitation from early to the middle of next week, along with generally warm temperatures.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NYZ032-033. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson/Wasula NEAR TERM . Thompson/JLV/Wasula SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . JPV AVIATION . IAA HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Glens Falls, Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport, NY13 mi1.9 hrsSW 7 G 1510.00 miFair23°F14°F68%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGFL

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2 days agoCalmNE3N3NE3N3N5NE4NE5NE4N5E4NE5E6N5NE5N5NE4NE3N4E3CalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sat -- 03:21 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EST     5.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:03 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.80.40.51.63.14.34.95.14.73.82.82.11.61.20.91.32.53.74.34.54.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Sat -- 03:11 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EST     5.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:49 PM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:55 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.70.30.61.83.34.44.95.14.63.72.621.61.10.91.52.73.84.34.54.23.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.