Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 1:28 PM   Moonset 3:50 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 172322 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 722 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaching from west will gradually move eastward across the region through Thursday, providing cool and unsettled conditions. After a brief break Thursday night, additional showers are likely Friday associated with a cold front passage. Cool, breezy and mainly dry weather is expected for the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Band of light rain over much of the region and more rain to the west is feeding into the band, helping to increase the intensity and coverage as it spreads across the rest of the region through the evening. So, rain will get steadier but will still be mainly light through the night. Just minor adjustments to sky cover rain chances and temperatures through the night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Showers will slowly develop from SW to NE through this evening, as a front gradually approaches from the south/west. The upper level ridge axis over the region today will shift east. The primary cyclone tracks east across the upper Great Lakes while a weaker wave develops near the Delmarva overnight. So our area will be in between the areas of best forcing, resulting in relatively light rainfall compared to the past few events. QPF tonight ranges from around 0.10" north/east of Albany(where low levels are drier) to around 0.65" in the Mohawk Valley and Catskills. Low temperatures will range from the upper 30s in the mountains to mid 40s in lower elevations. With increasing SE flow aloft, some downslope areas in the S. Greens/W. Adirondacks will have gusts of 20-30 mph at times.

Thursday looks to be rather gloomy with plenty of clouds around with additional light showers. The upper low over the Great Lakes will open into a trough and weaken while it tracks east across far northern NY on Thu, as it encounters the old upper ridge axis over New England. Still, there will be enough forcing for scattered to numerous showers into the afternoon. With surface high pressure settling over coastal New England, a persistent easterly onshore flow will result in cool/damp conditions across our region. Highs only expected to reach the 40s to near 50.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Short wave ridging develops Thu night, so showers will likely end during the evening. However, forecast soundings indicate plenty of low level moisture trapped beneath a developing inversion with cloudy skies persisting. Some drizzle is possible too with drying aloft occurring. Lows will generally be in the mid/upper 30s in the higher terrain with lower 40s in the valleys.

On Fri, the ridge axis shifts east of our area while a cold front approaches from the west. Both moisture and forcing do not look overly impressive, but enough for some showers, with the highest probs west of the Hudson Valley with a low level S-SW flow. Showers should be light again, with most areas receiving < 0.25" QPF. With plenty of clouds/showers around it will be another cool day with highs expected to be mainly in the 50s.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing.

The cold front moves through Fri evening, with showers ending overnight. Cold advection commences as well, but with plenty of clouds still around and a westerly breeze developing low temperatures will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
An upper level trough will settle in across the Great Lakes and Northeast over the weekend. The main short wave that will introduce the trough looks to move through early Sat evening.
Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly for higher terrain areas north and west of the Capital District. Gusty westerly downslope winds and limited moisture should keep areas from Albany south/east dry. Highs will be slightly below normal ranging from 40s in the mountains to 55-60F in valleys. Drying expected Sat night into Sun, as the flow aloft becomes more zonal, while still under the influence of a broad trough. So dry and cool conditions are expected, with temperatures running slightly below normal with breezy/gusty W-NW winds.

Dry and seasonable conditions expected Mon into Tue, with surface high pressure and a broad trough aloft in place.
Temperatures look to moderate back to normal levels. A coastal cyclone moving off the SE coast should stay far enough away to limit any impacts across our region, with deterministic and ensemble guidance in agreement. The next disturbance approaching from the west could bring the next chance of showers late Tue into Wed.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Band of rain well ahead of a warm front will expand and become steadier through the night. Current VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR, mainly between 04Z-12Z. The rain should be mainly quite light with visibilities likely not going below 6SM through about 12Z. Steadier rain through Thursday morning and afternoon, will result in visibilities around 6Sm and ceilings will continue MVFR. Ceilings will lower to near IFR at KPOU.

Light south to east winds at 10 Kt or less, with a few gusts over 15Kt at KALB and KPSF through tonight. Southeast winds Thursday morning and afternoon at around 10 Kt, with a few gusts over 15 Kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Troy
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Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
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Albany
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Wed -- 12:43 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:00 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:52 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

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